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Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
Hawaii’s high and steep topography leads to pronounced small-scale variations in climate, and this makes comprehensive modeling of the weather and climate particularly challenging. This paper describes a regional model formulation designed for simulations of the microclimates in Hawaii and then documents and analyzes an extended retrospective simulation for near-present-day conditions. Part II will apply the model to projected climate conditions near the end of the present century. A nested version of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fine horizontal resolution and improved physics for the Hawaiian region has been configured. A 20-yr triply nested simulation of the...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022059/abstract): Seasonal mean rainfall projections for Hawai‘i are given based on statistical downscaling of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global model results for two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The spatial information content of our statistical downscaling method is improved over previous efforts through the inclusion of spatially extensive, high-quality monthly rainfall data set and the use of improved large-scale climate predictor information. Predictor variables include moisture transport in the middle atmosphere (700 hPa), vertical temperature gradients, and geopotential...