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Confronting uncertainty in species distribution projections The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change. Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, CA, California, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags... Data Acquisition and Development, Data Acquisition and Development, Datasets/Database, Decision Support, Decision support, Federal, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Map, Multiple, Multiple, Project, Publication, Science Project, Southwest CSC, State agencies, adaptation, birds, completed, endemic species, ensemble, environment, gcm, land birds, maps, modeling, planning, plants, plants, species distribution modeling, species range shifts, statistical downscaling, uncertainty, Fewer tags Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Regional Climate Model v3 (RCM3) with boundary conditions driven by the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper for the years 2041-2070 Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Regional Climate Model v3 (RCM3) with boundary conditions driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Climate Model (GFDL) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) with boundary conditions driven by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper for the years 2041-2070 Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Regional Climate Model v3 (RCM3) with boundary conditions driven by the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) averaged and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future density (birds per hectare) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica): Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Future density (birds per hectare) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Weather Research Forecasting Grell Model (WRFG) with boundary conditions driven by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Weather Research Forecasting Grell Model (WRFG) with boundary conditions driven by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model Future binomial (presence/absence) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Weather Research Forecasting Grell Model (WRFG) with boundary conditions driven by the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Current density (birds per hectare) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model - Gaussian Current density (birds per hectare) model of Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma californica) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from PRISM (Daly et al. 2004) averaged for the years 1971-2000. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, California, NPLCC, Oregon, Oregon, All tags... Washington, Washington, birds, birds, boosted regression tree model, boosted regression tree model, climate change, climate change, species distribution modeling, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags Future density (birds per hectare) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Future density (birds per hectare) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Regional Climate Model v3 (RCM3) with boundary conditions driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Climate Model (GFDL) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: California, NPLCC, Oregon, Washington, birds, All tags... boosted regression tree model, climate change, species distribution modeling, Fewer tags 3. Hydrologic unit (HUC6) summaries of models for woody riparian native and invasive plant species in the conterminous western USA We developed habitat suitability models for occurrence of three invasive riparian woody plant taxa of concern to Department of Interior land management agencies, as well as for three dominant native riparian woody taxa. Study taxa were non-native tamarisk (saltcedar; Tamarix ramosissima, Tamarix chinensis), Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) and Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila) and native plains/Fremont cottonwood (Populus deltoides ssp. monilifera and ssp. wislizenii, Populus fremontii), narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), and black cottonwood (Populus balsamifera ssp. trichocarpa and ssp. balsamifera). We generally followed the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020. We developed models using... Categories: Data; Tags: Elaeagnus angustifolia, Populus spp., SAHM, Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling, Species Distribution modeling, All tags... Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila, United States, VisTrails, biota, habitat suitability, invasive plants, riparian, Fewer tags Presence and abundance data and models for four invasive plant species: merged data set to create the models We developed habitat suitability models for four invasive plant species of concern to Department of Interior land management agencies. We generally followed the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020, but developed models both for two data types, where species were present and where they were abundant. We developed models using five algorithms with VisTrails: Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling [SAHM 2.1.2]. We accounted for uncertainty related to sampling bias by using two alternative sources of background samples, and constructed model ensembles using the 10 models for each species (five algorithms by two background methods) for four different thresholds. This data bundle contains the presence and... Categories: Data; Tags: Bromus rubens, Ranunculus testiculatus, SAHM, Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling, Species Distribution modeling, All tags... Taeniatherum caput-medusae, United States, Ventenata dubia, VisTrails, biota, habitat suitability, Fewer tags Phragmites Habitat Suitability Habitat suitability was estimated for invasive Phragmites in the coastal Great Lakes region (shoreline to 10 km inland). These estimates were based on current distribution patterns and environmental conditions. Phragmites presence or absence was defined based on a distribution map produced by cooperative research between the GLSC and Michigan Technical Research Institute. Environmental variables were processed in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and came from existing publicly available sources. Variables include descriptors of soils, nutrients, topography, ecoregion, anthropogenic disturbance, and climate. Environmental conditions and Phragmites presence/absence were sampled in a GIS at points established... Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WMS Layer; Tags: Accountability, GLRI, Great Lakes, Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, Invasive Species, All tags... Phragmites, Template 588, Template 67, Template 68, boosted regression trees, coastal wetlands, forecasting, invasive species, invasive species corridors, species distribution modeling, vulnerability assessment, Fewer tags Pika presences in the western USA, 2012-2015 USGS researchers surveyed talus patches across the western USA, in conjunction with numerous partners during 2012-2015, inclusive. Data are locations at which American pikas were detected, via either vocalizations (C), fresh haypile (HP), or sighting (S). Categories: Data; Tags: American pika, Ecology, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), United States, Wildlife Biology, All tags... biota, ecology, non-stationarity, species distribution modeling, talus habitat, Fewer tags Management summary table for INHABIT species potential distribution across the contiguous United States: additional management units We developed habitat suitability models for invasive plant species selected by Department of Interior land management agencies. We applied the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020 to species not included in the original case studies. Our methodology balanced trade-offs between developing highly customized models for a few species versus fitting non-specific and generic models for numerous species. We developed a national library of environmental variables known to physiologically limit plant distributions (Engelstad et al. 2022 Table S1) and relied on human input based on natural history knowledge to further narrow the variable set for each species before developing habitat suitability models. We developed... Categories: Data; Tags: Botany, Contiguous United States, Ecology, Remote Sensing, SAHM, All tags... Species Distribution Modeling, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), United States, VisTrails, biogeography, biota, habitat suitability, invasive species, modeling, Fewer tags US non-native plant occurrence and abundance data and distribution maps for Eastern US species with current and future climate This is a dataset containing aggregated non-native plant occurrence and abundance data for the contiguous United States. We used these data to develop habitat suitability models for species found in the Eastern United States using locations with 5% cover or greater. We adapted the INHABIT modeling workflow (Young et al. 2020), using a consistent set of climatic predictors that were important in the INHABIT models. We developed models using five algorithms with VisTrails: Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling [SAHM 2.2.2]. We accounted for sampling bias by using the target background approach, and constructed model ensembles using the five models for each species for three different thresholds (conservative to targeted;1st... Categories: Data; Tags: Botany, Contiguous United States, Ecology, SAHM, Species Distribution Modeling, All tags... USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), United States, VisTrails, biogeography, biogeography, biota, habitat suitability, invasive species, invasive species, modeling, modeling, Fewer tags Presence and abundance models management summaries for four invasive plant species We developed habitat suitability models for four invasive plant species of concern to Department of Interior land management agencies. We generally followed the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020, but developed models both for two data types, where species were present and where they were abundant. We developed models using five algorithms with VisTrails: Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling [SAHM 2.1.2]. We accounted for uncertainty related to sampling bias by using two alternative sources of background samples, and constructed model ensembles using the 10 models for each species (five algorithms by two background methods) for four different thresholds. This data bundle contains the presence and... Categories: Data; Tags: Bromus rubens, Ranunculus testiculatus, SAHM, Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling, Species Distribution modeling, All tags... Taeniatherum caput-medusae, United States, Ventenata dubia, VisTrails, biota, habitat suitability, Fewer tags 2. Independent occurrence data for model assessment for woody riparian native and invasive plant species in the conterminous western USA We developed habitat suitability models for occurrence of three invasive riparian woody plant taxa of concern to Department of Interior land management agencies, as well as for three dominant native riparian woody taxa. Study taxa were non-native tamarisk (saltcedar; Tamarix ramosissima, Tamarix chinensis), Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) and Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila) and native plains/Fremont cottonwood (Populus deltoides ssp. monilifera and ssp. wislizenii, Populus fremontii), narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), and black cottonwood (Populus balsamifera ssp. trichocarpa and ssp. balsamifera). We generally followed the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020. We developed models using... Categories: Data; Tags: Elaeagnus angustifolia, Populus spp., SAHM, Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling, Species Distribution modeling, All tags... Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila, United States, VisTrails, biota, habitat suitability, invasive plants, riparian, Fewer tags « 1 2