Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries
Dates
Metadata Creation Date
2015-12-12
Summary
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in natural conditions, a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Reference: Nicolsky, [...]
Summary
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in natural conditions, a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Reference: Nicolsky, D. J., V. E. Romanovsky, S. K. Panda, S. S. Marchenko, and R. R. Muskett (2017), Applicability of the ecosystem type approach to model permafrost dynamics across the Alaska North Slope, J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 122, 50–75, doi:10.1002/2016JF003852
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in natural conditions, a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP4.5
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in natural conditions, a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP8.5
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in natural conditions, a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries Selawik RCP4.5
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in natural conditions, a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries Selawik RCP8.5
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 0.6-m thick gravel and 0.15-m thick styrofoam layers are added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. The thermal conductivity and volumetric heatcapacity of styrofoam was assumed to be 0.033 W/m/K and 65,000 J/m^3/K, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP45 0.6m gravel, 0.15m styrofoam
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 0.6-m thick gravel layer is added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP45 0.6m gravel
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.2-m thick gravel and 0.15-m thick styrofoam layers are added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. The thermal conductivity and volumetric heatcapacity of styrofoam was assumed to be 0.033 W/m/K and 65,000 J/m^3/K, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP45 1.2m gravel, 0.15m styrofoam
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.2-m thick gravel layer is added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP45 1.2m gravel
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.8-m thick gravel and 0.15-m thick styrofoam layers are added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. The thermal conductivity and volumetric heatcapacity of styrofoam was assumed to be 0.033 W/m/K and 65,000 J/m^3/K, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP45 1.8m gravel, 0.15m styrofoam
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.8-m thick gravel layer is added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP45 1.8m gravel
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 0.6-m thick gravel and 0.15-m thick styrofoam layers are added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. The thermal conductivity and volumetric heatcapacity of styrofoam was assumed to be 0.033 W/m/K and 65,000 J/m^3/K, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP85 0.6m gravel, 0.15m styrofoam
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 0.6-m thick gravel layer is added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP85 0.6m gravel
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.2-m thick gravel and 0.15-m thick styrofoam layers are added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. The thermal conductivity and volumetric heatcapacity of styrofoam was assumed to be 0.033 W/m/K and 65,000 J/m^3/K, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP85 1.2m gravel, 0.15m styrofoam
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.2-m thick gravel layer is added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP85 1.2m gravel
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.8-m thick gravel and 0.15-m thick styrofoam layers are added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. The thermal conductivity and volumetric heatcapacity of styrofoam was assumed to be 0.033 W/m/K and 65,000 J/m^3/K, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP85 1.8m gravel, 0.15m styrofoam
The permafrost module of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) is used to establish high spatial resolution scenario of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change. Retrospective modeling was performed for the 1901-2009 period using the high resolution CRU TS3.1 climate forcing from the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP). To predict future changes in permafrost in disturbed conditions (a 1.8-m thick gravel layer is added in July, 2015), a five model composite climate forcing (2006-2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario is utilized. In particular, the temperature and precipitation of models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) are considered. Thermal conductivity of the gravel is 1.45 and 1.95 W/m/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Volumetric heat capacity of the gravel is 2,600,000 and 2,100,000 J/m^3/K for thawed and frozen conditions, respectively. Due to an increased absorption of the shortwave radiation, the gravel surface temperature is assumed to be 50% higher than the air temperature in the snow free days. The volumetric porosity of gravel is 0.18 m^3/m^3. Further information related to the modeling approach could be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003852.
title
Simulated permafrost dynamics across the Alaskan North Slope region in the 20th and 21st centuries North Slope RCP85 1.8m gravel
