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Implications for Connectivity and Movement of Lotic Great Plains Fishes in the Face of Climate Change.

Dates

Start Date
2013-08-01
End Date
2014-07-31

Summary

The potential implications of climate change to fishes in Great Plains rivers and streams could range from drastic shifts in distribution to extirpation. Many lotic systems in the Great Plains are not well suited for direct escape routes for fish to move to more suitable habitats at other latitudes due to the west-east direction of flows rather than north-south. Therefore, we might expect additional climate related stress on fish communities in the Great Plains compared to other regions of North America. Therefore, we will 1) simulate potential water temperature and flow changes within the Great Plains based on extant regional climate models, 2) assess stream connectivity to potential refugia, 3) develop a database of thermal tolerances [...]

Contacts

Attached Files

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PeggClimate Change and Barriers LCC Report_final2.pdf 6.97 MB
FY13_Pegg_climate_change_and_barriers_summary.pdf 64.98 KB
ASCII_Rasters.zip 7.93 MB
Shapefile: Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.zip
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Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.prj 459 Bytes
Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.sbn 6.82 MB
Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.sbx 145.64 KB
Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.shp 21.87 MB
Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.shp.xml 17.33 KB
Mo_Basin_RSX_by_HUC.shx 6.25 MB

Purpose

In this study, we sought to 1) identify the magnitude of potential in-stream barriers to fish movement (e.g., dams and river-stream crossings; RSX), 2) predict fish species distributions under climate change scenarios, 3) identify the potential for joint threats of climate change and barriers to fishes in Nebraska and a large portion of the Great Plains. We used the Missouri River Basin as the largest spatial scale for our analysis and as a proxy for the Great Plains because a majority of the land area of the Great Plains is contained within the Missouri River basin and the state of Nebraska (the focus of our smaller spatial scale analysis) is entirely contained within the Missouri River Basin. The river networks within this basin also provide a sound ecological and evolutionary backdrop for understanding fish distributions. Our approach also shed light on smaller spatial scales (e.g., geopolitical boundaries – Nebraska) to assess which are the most vulnerable fish species to climate change. We used data from publically available sources to predict current and future (2050 and 2100) fish species distributions. Conceptually, we overlaid down-scaled Global Climate Model data to assess climatic conditions as well as fish species thermal tolerance data and potential barrier to movement data to predict future fish species distributions and/or identify species that may be vulnerable to climate projections.

Project Extension

projectStatusCompleted
projectProducts
productDescriptionReport and model outputs for several species (ASCII format)
statusDelivered

Map

Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS

ScienceBase WFS

Communities

  • Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative
  • LC MAP - Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal

Tags

Provenance

Data source
Input directly

Additional Information

Shapefile Extension

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