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The South Central U.S. encompasses a wide range of ecosystem types and precipitation patterns. Average annual precipitation is less than 10 inches in northwest New Mexico but can exceed 60 inches further east in Louisiana. Much of the region relies on warm-season convective precipitation – that is, highly localized brief but intense periods of rainfall that are common in the summer. This type of precipitation is a significant driver of climate and ecosystem function in the region, but it is also notoriously difficult to predict since it occurs at such small spatial and temporal scales. While global climate models are helpful for understanding and predicting large-scale precipitation trends, they often do not capture...
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Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize the destruction of ecological communities, threats of future flooding, and extensive damages by lessening the intensity of future wildfires. Although safe burning practices can largely minimize the risks, prescribed burns may bring some degree of concern among practitioners. The real and perceived risks may include bodily...
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The South Central U.S. is one of the main agricultural regions in North America: annual agricultural production is valued at more than $44 billion dollars. However, as climate conditions change, the region is experiencing more frequent and severe droughts, with significant impacts on agriculture and broader consequences for land management. For example, in 2011 drought caused an estimated $7.6 billion in agricultural losses in Texas and an additional $1.6 billion in Oklahoma. Although there are many drought monitoring tools available, most of these tools were developed without input from the stakeholders, such as farmers and ranchers, who are intended to use them. The goal of this project was to assess the information...
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The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities has long been recognized in the United States, especially in high risk areas such as the South Central region. There is ample literature on the effects of long-term climate change and short-term climate variability on the occurrence of droughts. However, it is unclear whether this information meets the needs of relevant stakeholders and actually contributes to reducing the vulnerability or increasing the resilience of communities to droughts. For example, are the methods used to characterize the severity of drought – known as drought indices – effective tools for predicting the actual damage felt by communities? As droughts...
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The SRLCC provided funds to the states of Arizona and New Mexico to support development of the states Crucial Habitat Assessment Tools (CHATs) which provide a decision support system to better incorporate wildlife values, sensitive animals and plants, and important ecosystem features into land use decision-making to reduce conflicts and surprises.Several states have released wildlife mapping tools that are the foundation for displaying crucial wildlife and corridor information. The state and regional CHATs are non-regulatory, and give project planners and the general public access to credible scientific data on a broad scale for use in project analysis, siting and planning. This includes large-scale development...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: ArcGIS REST Map Service, ArcGIS Service Definition, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, AZ-05, All tags...
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As the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) develops a strategic effort around fire science, there is a critical need to develop a national-scale synthesis effort that identifies key regional CASC activities previously conducted, as well as major science gaps that may be addressed by a coordinated CASC network approach. The North Central CASC postdoctoral fellow will play a leadership role in the National CASC Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral (CAP) Fellows Future of Fire cohort to help identify the common efforts and leveraging points to shape the national-scale synthesis. Currently there is limited North Central CASC supported fire science available for the North Central region. To meet this need,...
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This project developed a series of maps depicting the distribution and probability of occurrence of marine birds in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The maps are intended to be used for informing decisions about siting offshore facilities; marine spatial planning; and other uses requiring maps of seabird distributions.
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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Rate of global biodiversity loss increased significantly during the 20th century associated with human environmental alterations. Specifically, mismanagement of freshwater resources contributed to historical and contemporary loss of stream-dwelling fish diversity and will likely play a role in determining the persistence of species in the future. We present a mechanistic pathway by which human alteration of streams has caused the decline of a unique reproductive guild of Great Plains stream-dwelling fishes, and suggest how future climate change might exacerbate these declines. Stream fragmentation related to impoundments, diversion dams and stream dewatering are consequences of increasing demand for freshwater resources...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, AR-04, CATFISHES/MINNOWS, CO-03, CT-04, All tags...
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We propose to use long-term fish-population data from a relict reach of the Pecos River, New Mexico to assess population dynamics of imperiled prairie-river minnows, including Arkansas River shiner. Development of viable management strategies requires basic understanding of population ecology. Rigorous, quantitative ecological methods can be used to analyze continuous, long-term demographic data, but such data are rarely available for imperiled, non-game fishes. Data available for the Pecos River provide a unique opportunity to apply quantitative methods to prairie-river minnow conservation and management. Analyses proposed here would determine (1) whether population regulation is density dependent or flow-regime...
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Phase 1 & 2 (2010, 2012): This project developed a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in the Central Valley and in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and develop an LCC-specific online shorebird monitoring portal publicly available at the California Avian Data Center. The three objectives in Phase II of this project are: 1) Complete the shorebird monitoring plan for the CA LCC by developing a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal southern California and northern Mexico. 2) Develop models to evaluate the influence of habitat factors from multiple spatial scales on shorebird use of San Francisco Bay and managed wetlands in the Sacramento Valley, as a model...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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Grasslands in the northern Great Plains are important ecosystems that support local economies, tribal communities, livestock grazing, diverse plant and animal communities, and large-scale migrations of big game ungulates, grassland birds, and waterfowl. Climate change and variability impact how people and animals live on and interact with grasslands, and can bring more frequent droughts, fires, or new plant species that make managing these landscapes challenging. Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century first requires a synthesis of what is known across all of these scales and a gap analysis to identify key areas of focus for future...
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The Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey have made it a priority to train the next generation of scientists and resource managers. The Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) and consortium institutions are working to contribute to this initiative by building and supporting a network of students across the country who are interested in the climate sciences and climate adaptation. The purpose of this project was to support the development of a national early career communication platform to facilitate and increase information sharing and networking across the CASCs and consortium institutions. This was accomplished by working with the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a CASC-supported science...
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Sport fisheries of lakes are embedded in complex system of ecological and social interactions. The multiple drivers that affect lake sport fisheries, along with the complex interactions within lakes, make it difficult to forecast changes in sport fisheries and plan adaptive responses to build resilience of these important resources. Resilience involves managing with an eye toward critical thresholds for behavior of ecosystems. Project researchers are working to develop quantitative tools for assessment of thresholds in sport fisheries that can be used by management agencies to evaluate potential impacts of climate change mediated through species and habitat interactions. Several outputs of the project will be adaptable...
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Social scientists funded through the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Climate Science Centers (CSCs) have an obligation to provide access to their climate science related research data. We suspect, as with other data types, that tools for creating and editing social science metadata specific to the climate science domain and linking the metadata to the actual data either do not exist or are non-intuitive for scientists. Through our research we sought to verify whether any definitive metadata tool for social scientists working in the climate science domain exists. We also sought to determine whether a commonly agreed upon social science metadata standard exists. We suspect that...
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Inland fish populations are a crucial resource to humans and communities around the world. Recreational fishing throughout the United States, for example, provides important revenue to local and state economies; globally, inland fisheries are a vital food source for billions of people. Warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, however, are already causing significant changes to fish communities worldwide. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fish, and in more recent years, documentation of impacts has increased. However, the number of documented impacts of climate change on inland fish remains low. A comprehensive understanding of how climate change...
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Modeling interactions between human and ecological systems is needed to identify pathways to meet multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Particularly important is the relationship between biodiversity, ecological processes, and ecosystem services. However, current models tend to ignore impacts of biodiversity on ecological processes. Existing models capture impacts of socio-economic activities on biodiversity or ecosystem services, but critically, links between biodiversity and ecosystem services are only weakly incorporated in most projections and hence in policy design. Knowledge of these relationships has improved, but is scattered across the literature, as are models addressing each component....
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Multicultural representation is a stated goal of many global scientific assessment processes. These processes aim to mobilize a broader, more diverse knowledge base and increase legitimacy and inclusiveness of these assessment processes. Often, enhancing cultural diversity is encouraged through involvement of diverse expert teams and sources of knowledge in different languages. This project examines linguistic diversity, as one representation of cultural diversity, in the eight published assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
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Assessing the impact of flow alteration on aquatic ecosystems has been identified as a critical area of research nationally and in the Southeast U.S. This project aimed to address the Ecohydrology Priority Science Need of the SE CSC FY2012 Annual Science Work Plan by developing an inventory and evaluation of current efforts and knowledge gaps in hydrological modeling for flow-­‐ecology science in global change impact studies across the Southeast. To accomplish this goal, we completed a thorough synthesis and evaluation of hydrologic modeling efforts in the Southeast region (including all states of the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (SEAFWA) including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,...


map background search result map search result map Evaluating the Use of Models for Projecting Future Water Flow in the Southeast Consequences of stream fragmentation and climate change for rare Great Plains fishes Creating a detailed vegetation classification and digital vegetation map for Squaw Creek NWR Improving Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Regional Climate Models Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South Central U.S. Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Climate Change and Resilience of Sport Fisheries in Lakes Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Support to Western States Crucial Habitat Assessment Tools Supporting Social Scientists working with the CSCs in Data Sharing Efforts Supporting Early Career Climate Communications and Networking Global Analysis of Trends in Projected and Documented Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fish Mapping the Distribution, Abundance and Risk Assessment of Marine Birds in the Northwest Atlantic Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains The Missing Link: Incorporating the Role of Biological Diversity into Projections of Ecosystem Services Examining Linguistic Diversity Metrics in Intergovernmental Ecosystem Assessments Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Creating a detailed vegetation classification and digital vegetation map for Squaw Creek NWR Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Climate Change and Resilience of Sport Fisheries in Lakes Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Consequences of stream fragmentation and climate change for rare Great Plains fishes Mapping the Distribution, Abundance and Risk Assessment of Marine Birds in the Northwest Atlantic Support to Western States Crucial Habitat Assessment Tools Improving Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Regional Climate Models Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South Central U.S. Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Evaluating the Use of Models for Projecting Future Water Flow in the Southeast Supporting Social Scientists working with the CSCs in Data Sharing Efforts Supporting Early Career Climate Communications and Networking Global Analysis of Trends in Projected and Documented Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fish The Missing Link: Incorporating the Role of Biological Diversity into Projections of Ecosystem Services Examining Linguistic Diversity Metrics in Intergovernmental Ecosystem Assessments