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This project generated a series of freely available datasets that provide projections of climate change at appropriate spatial scales that can directly address specific management questions. These climate change projections are the result of “downscaling” output from global climate models (GCMs) that formed the basis of many conclusions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5 (AR5). The datasets include projections of climate variables in addition to daily temperature and precipitation such as surface winds, humidity, and solar radiation that are needed in hydrologic and ecological modeling. Two products, one at a 4-km resolution and the other at a 6-km resolution, covering the...
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As elevation increases, both temperature and moisture availability decrease. In many parts of the world, this decrease in temperature is a limiting factor for vegetation—at certain elevations, the temperature becomes too cold for plants to survive. However in the tropics, moisture availability may play a more important role than temperature in determining the altitude at which forests can grow. For example on Haleakalā, a volcano on the Hawaiian Island of Mauʻi, the forest line is not found at the same elevation everywhere, as you would expect if it were controlled by temperature. Rather, the forest line is highest in the wetter eastern-most end and lower on the drier, western end of the volcano. Research also...
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The Colorado River is the dominant water source for the southwestern United States, crossing through seven states before reaching Mexico. The river supplies water to approximately 36 million people, irrigates nearly six million acres of farmland within and beyond the basin, and contributes an estimated 26 billion dollars each year to the region’s recreational economy. Yet the Colorado River’s water supply is already fully allocated, meaning that the economic and environmental health of the region is closely tied to the river’s streamflow. Climate projections for the Southwest show a future marked by chronic drought and substantial reductions in streamflow. The region has already been impacted by climate change,...
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Indigenous peoples and nations are on the front lines of climate change impacts and are leading the way in innovative adaptation action, such as in the use of traditional burning. Traditional burning has been recognized as a robust adaptation strategy, increasing the resiliency of ecosystems and the local communities that depend on them for their economic and social well-being. Furthermore, implementing natural fire practices may help reduce the likelihood of catastrophic fires and increase ecosystem water holding capacity. Traditional burning may be applied singularly or as a complementary approach with other ecosystem restoration practices, such as thinning and prescribed burning. The overarching goal of this...
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Stretching almost 1,900 miles from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, the Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin (RGB) supplies drinking water for more than 6 million people and irrigation for about 2 million acres of land. The river also supports habitat for many at-risk and endangered species. Because of its size and diverse ecosystem services, the RGB faces complex shared-management challenges that will require coordination among many players. This project will provide opportunities for water managers and users across the basin to collaborate to prevent future conflicts and foster innovative water management in the face of a changing climate. The project leaders will design and convene one tribal RGB forum and will design...
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Snow conditions are changing dramatically in the mountains of the interior Pacific Northwest, including eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and western Montana. These changes can both benefit and hinder a variety of wildlife species. The timing and extent of seasonal snowpacks, in addition to snow depth, density, and hardness, can impact the ability of wildlife to access forage, their ability to move across the landscape, and their vulnerability to predators, to name a few. In order to respond effectively to changes in snow conditions, wildlife managers need tools to identify areas and promote conditions that maintain late spring and early summer snowpack for some sensitive species. Managers also require an index...
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The Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana and Texas faces threats from increasingly destructive extreme weather, heat, subsidence, and coastal erosion. Inland areas also face stronger storms, floods, and shifts in land development patterns. Increasing drought and extreme heat in Texas and New Mexico also exacerbate fires and floods. All of these regions are culturally rich, rapidly changing areas where people are working across political boundaries and organizations to protect and adapt people’s lifeways, sites and artifacts, and culturally important species, places and landscapes. This project will produce an action plan that describes ongoing efforts and identifies gaps in research and funding for cultural preservation...
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The Rio Grande provides drinking water for more than six million people, irrigation water for two million acres of land in the United States and Mexico, and supports riparian ecosystems that are home to endangered species like the ocelot and Rio Grande silvery minnow. Climate variability and anthropogenic activities continue to stress this already limited water resource. This project was developed in response to a request from a group of stakeholders who work in the Basin and represent federal, state and local agencies, private industry, farmers, ranchers, and NGOs. These stakeholders identified the need for a comprehensive data resource that spatially depicts where conservation activities are occurring on the ground....
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has worked diligently to build new partnerships between scientists and resource managers to help address stakeholders’ science needs and questions through actionable science. However, the growth of the stakeholder base has led to an unmet demand for climate adaptation services. These services focus on sharing data, tools, research knowledge, and scientific guidance with communities and stakeholders. To meet this need, the South Central CASC will establish a new scientist position focused on climate adaptation services and research coordination to identify critically needed science solutions and to bridge the researcher and practitioner communities in the...
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Natural resource managers are confronted with the pressing challenge to develop conservation plans that address complex ecological and societal needs against the backdrop of a rapidly changing climate. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) provide valuable information that helps guide management and conservation actions in this regard. An essential component to CCVAs is understanding adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change. However, adaptive capacity is the least understood and evaluated component of CCVAs. This is largely due to a fundamental need for guidance on how to assess adaptive capacity and incorporate this information into conservation planning...
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Invasive species have increasingly severe consequences for ecosystems and human communities alike. The ecological impacts of invasive species are often irreversible, and include the loss of native species and the spread of disease. Implications for human communities include damaged water transportation systems, reduced crop yields, reduced forage quality for livestock, and widespread tree death - which can lead to increases in wildfire and loss of biodiversity. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the spread of invasive species, making this a key management and conservation concern across the United States. This project will synthesize what we know about how climate change impacts the spread of invasive...
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Climate change, drought, habitat alterations, and increasing water demands are leaving less water available for streams of the Pacific Northwest and for fish like salmon. As water levels drop, some small streams become fragmented, transforming from a ribbon of continuous habitat into a series of isolated pools. Fragmented streams may pose a serious threat to salmon. For example, juveniles that become stranded in small pools are at increased risk to overheat, starve, or be consumed by predators. Healthy salmon populations can cope with fragmentation and recover from a bad drought-year. However, many salmon populations are endangered and face long-term drought. Land and resource managers are increasingly finding...
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest are predicted to have transformational effects on agriculture. Loss of winter snow pack, reduced summer stream flows, and increased summer temperatures are all phenomena that have already been observed, and are expected to worsen over this century. Research is ongoing in the Northwest to understand agriculture practices that might allow farmers to prepare for these climate change impacts. One potential technique is the use of biochars (charcoal made from decomposition of organic matter at high temperatures in the absence of oxygen), which can be used as a soil amendment that can increase soil moisture retention, improve agricultural yields, and hold...
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As temperature and precipitation patterns change, different species in different areas will be affected in different ways. Some places may serve as refuges for wildlife—places where animals can remain or to which they can easily move to escape the worst impacts of climate change. This project will establish a Refugia Research Coalition to leverage recently funded Northwest CASC research projects on the topic of ecological refugia. The goal of this collaborative effort will be to synthesize our understanding of ecological refugia in the Pacific Northwest and how best to use refugia-related research products as tools for adaptive management planning in the region. Ecological refugia will be an important means of protecting...
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The Midwest United States is facing wetter winters and springs and more variable precipitation in the summer and fall. Heavy floods and prolonged droughts are costly to agriculture, housing, transportation infrastructure, and recreational opportunities across the region. These extremes also stress the health of freshwater ecosystems that are important to the regional economy and quality of life. The number of freshwater invertebrates like mussels, crayfish, and aquatic insects are generally declining which strongly indicates declining freshwater health. Losing these animals limits benefits such as water purification, food for wildlife, and aesthetic values. This project seeks to understand and synthesize information...
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The Midwest region faces unique challenges from climate change that affect forests, grasslands, lakes, rivers, wetlands, and the services and cultural values these ecosystems provide. These changes also occur in a wide range of land types and cultural settings, such as on and off Tribal reservation and treaty-ceded land, within and around towns and cities, and in farms and managed forests. The goal of adaptation science is to identify, test, and demonstrate management strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change. This project will advance the creation and distribution of adaptation science that addresses the natural resource needs of the Midwest through: 1) a synthesis project and research symposium that...
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Big sagebrush plant communities are important and widespread in western North America and are crucial for meeting long-term conservation goals for greater sage-grouse and other wildlife of conservation concern. Yet wildfire is increasing in the West, turning biodiverse, shrub-based ecosystems dominated by sagebrush into grasslands containing invasive species such as cheatgrass and less overall plant and animal diversity. These transformations negatively impact people and ecosystems by reducing habitat quality for wildlife and the aesthetic value of the landscape. Understanding how sagebrush communities are already responding and will continue to respond to changes in wildfire, invasive species, and climate is...
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This project links climate, hydrological, and ecological changes over the next 30 years in a Great Basin watershed. In recent years, climate variability on annual and decadal time scales has been recognized as greater than commonly perceived with increasing impacts on ecosystems and available water resources. Changes in vegetation distribution, composition and productivity resulting from climate change affect plant water use, which in turn can alter stream flow, groundwater and eventually available water resources. To better understand these links, project researchers implemented two computer-based numeric models in the Cleve Creek watershed in the Schell Creek Range, east of Ely, Nevada. The application of the...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Cleve Creek, Climate, Completed, All tags...
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The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations. Project scientists are working with the Arizona...
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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.


map background search result map search result map Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Understanding and Projecting Changes in Climate, Hydrology, and Ecology in the Great Basin for the Next 30 Years Downscaling Climate Projections to Understand Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the Southeast Measurement of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Climate Conditions and Ecosystem Responses in Hawaiʻi Evaluating the Effectiveness of Assisted Migration and Fish Rescue Programs Assessing the Use of Biochar for Drought Resilience and Crop Productivity Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Mapping Conservation Management Efforts to Increase Coordination in the Rio Grande Basin Establishing a Refugia Research Coalition (RRC) for Collaborative Refugia-Related Research and Management in the Pacific Northwest Estimating the Spatial and Temporal Extent of Snowpack Properties in Complex Terrain: Leveraging Novel Data to Adapt Wildlife and Habitat Management Practices to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Indigenous-Led Climate Adaptation Strategies: Integrating Landscape Condition, Monitoring, and Cultural Fire with the North Fork Mono Tribe Climate Adaptation Services for New Mexico Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest Assessing and Advancing Different Ways of Knowing in Climate Adaptation in the Midwest An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Developing a Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin International Research Conference Understanding and Projecting Changes in Climate, Hydrology, and Ecology in the Great Basin for the Next 30 Years Measurement of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Climate Conditions and Ecosystem Responses in Hawaiʻi Evaluating the Effectiveness of Assisted Migration and Fish Rescue Programs Climate Adaptation Services for New Mexico Establishing a Refugia Research Coalition (RRC) for Collaborative Refugia-Related Research and Management in the Pacific Northwest Estimating the Spatial and Temporal Extent of Snowpack Properties in Complex Terrain: Leveraging Novel Data to Adapt Wildlife and Habitat Management Practices to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Assessing the Use of Biochar for Drought Resilience and Crop Productivity Indigenous-Led Climate Adaptation Strategies: Integrating Landscape Condition, Monitoring, and Cultural Fire with the North Fork Mono Tribe Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Mapping Conservation Management Efforts to Increase Coordination in the Rio Grande Basin Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest Assessing and Advancing Different Ways of Knowing in Climate Adaptation in the Midwest An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Developing a Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin International Research Conference Downscaling Climate Projections to Understand Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the Southeast