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Streamflow in the Colorado River is heavily influenced by high-elevation snowpack. Warming temperatures in spring can reduce snow-fed flows, with serious implications for the water supplies that support communities and wildlife. While it is already well-known that precipitation has a significant influence on river flow, recent observations suggest that temperature and the amount of water in soil may also influence streamflow. In the face of a changing climate, it is important that resource managers understand how factors such as changing temperatures and precipitation will affect this vital water source. To address this need, researchers are examining records of streamflow, temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Forests across the southwestern U.S. are crucial components of recreation and play an important role in state and local economies. Healthy forests also provide needed habitat for many wildlife species and contribute many other important services to our planet. “Hotter droughts” (otherwise normal droughts whose effects on ecosystems are exacerbated by higher temperatures) are an emerging climate change threat to forests with some of their earliest and strongest appearances happening in the Southwest. The Leaf to Landscape project uses California’s unusually hot drought as a potential preview of the future, allowing us to collect information that will help guide forest management in the face of a warming climate....
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A major goal of the Climate Science Center network is to conduct science and develop timely science products and tools that are directly relevant and useful to decision-makers and natural resource managers. A crucial first step in producing this actionable science is understanding the highest priority science and information needs of natural resource managers and planners. Through this project, the Southwest Climate Science Center will conduct a structured rapid assessment to identify and understand manager needs and priorities in the Southwest region. The project team will also work directly with managers and stakeholders to assess their perceptions regarding the co-production of science and preferences on...
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Resource managers must balance the impacts of competing management decisions on multiple, interacting natural systems. Hydrologic and ecological processes, such as groundwater fluctuations and riparian evapotranspiration, can be tightly coupled. Ideally, managers would have tools and models that include all processes to better understand how each management action would propagate through the environment. Because resources are limited, management tools that include only the most important processes may be more realistic. However, in some cases, omitting some interactions can lead to significant errors in predictions of hydrologic outcomes and ecological function, severely limiting a manager’s ability to identify...
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In the dry southwestern United States, snowmelt plays a crucial role as a water source for people, vegetation, and wildlife. However, snow droughts significantly lower snow accumulations, disrupting these critical water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. Despite its large influence on land- and water-resource management, snow drought has only recently been properly defined and its historical distribution and effects on key natural resources are essentially unknown. To remedy this serious knowledge gap, project researchers are examining the causes, effects, and forecastability of snow drought to provide needed scientific information and guidance to planners and decision makers. The central goals of...
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The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations. Project scientists are working with the Arizona...
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The Salt and Verde river basins in northeastern Arizona are a vital source of fresh water for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area and for two Native American tribes who rely on the basins’ natural resources for their livelihoods. The region depends on winter rain and snow to replenish the river basins’ water supply. Atmospheric rivers – long, narrow channels in the atmosphere that carry water vapor from the Pacific Ocean – supply a substantial portion of this winter precipitation. While atmospheric rivers are critical for maintaining water resources and preventing drought, they occasionally cause extreme storms that lead to flooding. Scientists project that climate change will affect the intensity and frequency...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. Much of the existing research on anticipating the effects of changing conditions on coastal ecosystems relies on global or regional scale data, meaning that the detailed information necessary for local-scale...
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Native Nations face unique challenges related to climate change. Native Americans have a deep connection to the natural environment within which their livelihoods, cultural identity, and spiritual practices are rooted. Changes to water flow and hydrology, landscapes, and ecosystems, in combination with socio-economic and other factors, amplify tribal vulnerabilities to climate change. In the Southwest, tribes are already experiencing a range of impacts that are at least partially related to climate change. They include serious water quality and supply issues in the context of prolonged drought; reduced ability to grow or collect important traditional crops and raw materials; loss of forest resources from large and...
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Estuaries are located at the interface where rivers meet the sea, creating unique ecosystems with complex physical and biological processes. Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services to people, including flood protection from high tides and storm surges, commercial fisheries, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and wildlife food and habitat. Coastal wetlands are also home to hundreds of migratory and resident wildlife species including threatened and endangered species of management concern. Wetlands also have the unique ability to increase their elevation relative to sea-level rise, therefore protecting nearby communities from flooding. In California, prolonged drought and extreme storm events...
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Mountain ecosystems are at risk from climate change and may be experiencing accelerated warming relative to lower environments. Understanding climatic and ecosystem processes at meso-, topo-, and micro-scales is limited, and constrains our ability to accurately evaluate vulnerability, and assess responses under future climates. Of special interest for climate studies are upper subalpine forests, the alpine treeline ecotone, and the alpine zones. We will use case-study ecosystems to address climatic processes and ecological responses at topo- and micro-scales, including: 1) treeline ecotone and role of phenotypic plasticity in Pinus albicaulis, 2) rocky ecosystems and Ochotona princeps, 3) demography of subalpine...
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The Mediterranean ecosystems of southern California are some of the most ecologically diverse systems in the world. The diversity of plants and animals, as well as high rates of endemism, make the area a biodiversity hotspot. High diversity in plant and animal species contributes greatly to the health and productivity of ecosystems, and plays an important role in the local and state economy (e.g. tourism, food crops, etc.). San Diego County's complex topography, highly variable precipitation and climate play a large role in determining the biology of the region. Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns due to climate change would alter the region's climate and add to other stressors such as habitat fragmentation...
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The impacts of climate change are already being observed and felt in our ecosystems and communities. Land and resource managers, planners, and decision-makers are looking for the best scientific information to guide their decisions about adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change now and in the future. To address this need, a primary goal of the Southwest Climate Science Center is to develop actionable science – scientific information that can be easily used to inform these decisions. Evidence shows that more collaborative forms of knowledge development and exchange between scientists and decision makers tend to produce information that is considered more trusted and usable, and lead to higher-quality...
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Drought is one of the biggest threats facing our forests today. In the western U.S., severe drought and rising temperatures have caused increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks. Forests are changing rapidly, and while land managers are working to develop long-term climate change adaptation plans, they require tools that can enhance forest resistance to drought now. To address this immediate need, researchers are examining whether a common forest management tool, prescribed fire, can be implemented to help forests better survive drought. Prescribed fire is commonly used in the western U.S. to remove potential wildfire fuel, such as small trees and shrubs. It is also thought that this act of selectively...
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There is a growing realization that current warming trends may be associated with increases in the size, frequency, and severity of forest fires in the West. While rising temperatures can create drought conditions that favor severe fires, it is also possible that drought limits the ability of trees to survive a fire. During a drought, there is less water available for trees and more outbreaks of harmful insects and pathogens can occur, both of which can weaken trees. Tree mortality is one means of measuring the severity of a fire, and evidence shows that trees exposed to drought conditions for periods of 5-10 years are already more sensitive to the effects of fire – suggesting that drought could indeed increase...
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Invasive plants are a major land management problem in the Western U.S. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is the most prominent and problematic invader in cold deserts, with negative effects on rangeland fire patterns, wildlife habitats, and forage/vegetation. Red brome (B. madritensis) is an invader in the Mojave Desert, and can similarly introduce a new fire patterns to sensitive warm desert scrub. These invasions often cause management agencies to incur high costs for prevention, control, restoration, and fire responses. Control and prevention of invasive species is challenging because the risk of invasive plants becoming abundant depends on existing plant communities, climate and weather, land use, and fire history....
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In order for science to have the most impact on resource management, it needs to directly address the questions that managers and other stakeholders have. Essentially, the ways in which researchers and resource managers collaborate can affect the use of scientific information in decision-making. Previous research has shown that relatively more collaboration between researchers and resource managers (or even the general public) tends to lead to more and more effective use of new scientific information. However, we do not yet have good ways to evaluate these research processes or the outcomes we expect them to produce. This project will assess the key variables necessary for the successful production of usable climate...
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This project aimed to contribute to effective decision making in the region for the scientific community and general public. Resource managers in the Great Basin are dealing with significant questions regarding how best to make decisions in the natural and human systems in response to climate change. Vulnerability assessments and other tools are used for climate change adaptation, but their effectiveness is not widely understood or examined. Assessing these tools for their utility and for their ability to translate science into accessible and available information for users, including the general public, is critical for the future viability and sustainability of the Great Basin. This project applied social and policy...
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For centuries, tribal and indigenous communities have relied on natural resources to sustain their families, communities, traditional ways of life, and cultural identities. This relationship with both land and water ecosystems makes indigenous people and cultures particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In 2015, the Southwest Climate Science Center partnered with the University of Arizona Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS) to develop regional capacity for engagement with tribes to support climate change adaptation. CCASS is now building on the success of the 2015 project and is strengthening partnerships to support the climate adaptation capacity of tribes in the Southwest....
    map background search result map search result map Examining the Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on Colorado River Water Resources: Reconstructing the Past to Understand the Future How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Assessing the Usefulness of Vulnerability Assessments and Other Science-based Tools in Climate Adaptation Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Assessing the Impacts of Restoration Efforts on Water and Natural Systems in a Changing World Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Building Partnerships to Assess Tribal Adaptation to Climate Change and Science Needs in the Southwest Producing Impactful Science: The Effect of Stakeholder Engagement Strategies on the Use of Climate Science in Management Decisions Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Continued Partnerships to Increase Capacity for Tribal Natural Resource Adaptation Planning Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes The Role of Climate in Shaping Invasive Plant Abundance across Different Spatial Locations Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Assessing Stakeholder Needs for Effective Actionable Science Evaluating Current Projects to Inform Future Development of Actionable Science in the Southwest Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Assessing the Impacts of Restoration Efforts on Water and Natural Systems in a Changing World Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Examining the Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on Colorado River Water Resources: Reconstructing the Past to Understand the Future Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Producing Impactful Science: The Effect of Stakeholder Engagement Strategies on the Use of Climate Science in Management Decisions Assessing the Usefulness of Vulnerability Assessments and Other Science-based Tools in Climate Adaptation Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin The Role of Climate in Shaping Invasive Plant Abundance across Different Spatial Locations Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Assessing Stakeholder Needs for Effective Actionable Science Evaluating Current Projects to Inform Future Development of Actionable Science in the Southwest Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest Building Partnerships to Assess Tribal Adaptation to Climate Change and Science Needs in the Southwest Continued Partnerships to Increase Capacity for Tribal Natural Resource Adaptation Planning