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Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise For climate-change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive dataset of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land-use and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios, and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Birds Conservation of future boreal forest bird communities considering lags in vegetation response to climate change: a modified refugia approach Aim Species and ecosystems may be unable to keep pace with rapid climate change projected for the 21st century. We evaluated an underexplored dimension of the mismatch between climate and biota: limitations to forest growth and succession affecting habitat suitability. Our objective was to inform continental-scale conservation for boreal songbirds under disequilibria between climate, vegetation and fauna. Location Boreal and southern arctic ecoregions of North America. Methods We used forest inventory and avian survey data to classify 53 species by seral-stage affinity and applied these to generate alternative projections of changes in species' core habitat distributions based on different vegetation lag-time assumptions.... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Ecosystems Reviving common standards in point-count surveys for broad inference across studies Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: A1-Wildlife, M1-Birds Reviving common standards in point-count surveys for broad inference across studies Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Adaptation planning 1-Best Management Practices, Birds, Landscape Scale Conservation: Wildlife, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Using binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius of point-count surveys across boreal Canada We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0-50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flight's maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30-82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Birds Using binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius of point-count surveys across boreal Canada We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0-50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flight's maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30-82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Birds Using binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius of point-count surveys across boreal Canada We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0-50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flight's maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30-82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Birds, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Reviving common standards in point-count surveys for broad inference across studies Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Adaptation planning 1-Best Management Practices, Birds, Landscape Scale Conservation: Wildlife, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Conservation of future boreal forest bird communities considering lags in vegetation response to climate change: a modified refugia approach Aim Species and ecosystems may be unable to keep pace with rapid climate change projected for the 21st century. We evaluated an underexplored dimension of the mismatch between climate and biota: limitations to forest growth and succession affecting habitat suitability. Our objective was to inform continental-scale conservation for boreal songbirds under disequilibria between climate, vegetation and fauna. Location Boreal and southern arctic ecoregions of North America. Methods We used forest inventory and avian survey data to classify 53 species by seral-stage affinity and applied these to generate alternative projections of changes in species' core habitat distributions based on different vegetation lag-time assumptions.... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Ecosystems Reviving common standards in point-count surveys for broad inference across studies Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: A1-Wildlife, M1-Birds Chronic industrial noise affects pairing success and age structure of ovenbirds Seiurus aurocapilla. Conclusions: There was a significant reduction in ovenbird pairing success at compressor sites (77%) compared with noiseless wellpads (92%). These differences were apparent regardless of territory quality or individual male quality. Noise interferes with a male's song, such that females may not hear the male's song at greater distances and/or females may perceive males to be of lower quality because of distortion of song characteristics Thresholds/Learnings: Synopsis: Anthropogenic noise is rapidly increasing in wilderness areas as a result of industrial expansion. This study assessed pairing success and age distribution of male ovenbirds, Seiurus aurocapilla, in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, in areas around... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Land use configuration, Landscape fragmentation, Northern Alberta, age structure, birds, All tags... boreal forest, compressor stations, energy development, industrial impacts, noise, noise impacts, ovenbird, ovenbird, pairing success, regional, Fewer tags Reviving common standards in point-count surveys for broad inference across studies Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: A1-Wildlife, M1-Birds Using binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius of point-count surveys across boreal Canada We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0-50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flight's maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30-82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Birds Conservation of future boreal forest bird communities considering lags in vegetation response to climate change: a modified refugia approach Aim Species and ecosystems may be unable to keep pace with rapid climate change projected for the 21st century. We evaluated an underexplored dimension of the mismatch between climate and biota: limitations to forest growth and succession affecting habitat suitability. Our objective was to inform continental-scale conservation for boreal songbirds under disequilibria between climate, vegetation and fauna. Location Boreal and southern arctic ecoregions of North America. Methods We used forest inventory and avian survey data to classify 53 species by seral-stage affinity and applied these to generate alternative projections of changes in species' core habitat distributions based on different vegetation lag-time assumptions.... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Ecosystems Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise For climate-change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive dataset of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land-use and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios, and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Birds, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise For climate-change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive dataset of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land-use and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios, and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Birds Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise For climate-change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive dataset of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land-use and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios, and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Birds, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Biogeography of boreal passerine range dynamics in western North America: past, present, and future Many of the Neotropical migrant bird species that breed throughout the Canadian boreal region are not found in the Alaskan boreal region, separated by the northwestern cordilleran mountains, despite the presence of climatically suitable habitat. We asked whether biological or climatic factors constrain certain species from crossing this geographic barrier. Analyzing a comprehensive dataset for 80 boreal passerine species, we used phylogenetic logistic regression to evaluate the relative importance of physical, migratory and competition metrics versus current and paleoclimatic suitability factors. Controlling for current climatic suitability within boreal Alaska, we found that species with the greatest climatic suitability... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Birds, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Using binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius of point-count surveys across boreal Canada We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0-50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flight's maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30-82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Birds, Monitoring 1-Changes in Plant and Animal Distribution: Fauna Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise For climate-change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive dataset of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land-use and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios, and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: M1-Birds 1 2 »