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Overview This project examines the ecological impacts of several introduced and expanding forest insects and diseases on forest habitats across the northeastern US and upper Lake States region. To address these novel threats, this work applies large-scale, co-developed experimental studies documenting impacts of ash mortality from emerald ash borer on lowland black ash communities in the Lake States and northern hardwood forests in New England; regional assessments of the impacts of the climate change-mediated expansion of southern pine beetle into northeastern pine barren communities; and ecological characterizations of areas experiencing suppression efforts to reduce the spread of the introduced Asian long-horned...
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Every 10 years, state fish and wildlife management agencies must comprehensively review, and if necessary revise, their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These are important planning documents that serve as blueprints for conserving fish, wildlife, and their habitat, and for preventing species listings in each state. These plans focus on species that have been identified as being of greatest conservation need, but also address the full array of wildlife and wildlife-related issues in a state. States last reviewed and revised their SWAPs in 2015, and will do so again in 2025. In 2016-2017, the Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) synthesized the 14 SWAP reports from the Northeast region....
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Fish and Wildlife agencies across the United States are currently revising their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These documents are important planning documents over 10 year timescales. SWAP Coordinators have been challenged to incorporate climate change impacts and species responses as part of their strategic approaches to managing vulnerable fish and wildlife resources. The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center is assisting Northeast and Midwestern States meet this charge by developing a regional synthesis document that provides: 1) Regional and state-specific climate change projections for approximately twenty climate variables (e.g., air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture,...
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This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to their decisions and priorities. The project team served as a resource to answer individual inquiries related to climate model projections in order to aid climate change adaptation. Additionally, the team contributed to the development of a synthesis document to help the Midwest and Northeast states prepare their threatened...
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High elevation red spruce forests are among the most iconic and visited natural communities in the High Alleghenies of the Central Appalachian Mountains. These ecosystems provide many services such as clean water and carbon sequestration, as well as habitat for species of high conservation concern, i.e., the eastern brook trout, the northern goshawk, and the northern flying squirrel. However, widespread logging and burning in the early 20th century significantly reduced the extent and integrity of red spruce forests. Replacement regeneration largely converted the region to northern hardwood forests. Recovery of red spruce forests has since been slowed by invasive pests and acidic atmospheric deposition, and the...
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Wabanaki Tribal Nations (Maliseet, Micmac, Passamaquoddy, and Penobscot) and other Tribal Nations in the Northeast CASC region will face a disproportionate impact from climate change. These impacts will affect resources such as forestry products, fish, game, wild crops, and water that are important to tribal economies and well-being. To combat this, varying levels of tribal community preparedness and the ability to build effective adaptive capacity to extreme events will be crucial for future resiliency efforts. Furthermore, there is a pressing need to work with partners who have a variety of backgrounds to plan, strategize, build and implement resiliency initiatives in tribal communities and identify innovative...
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The Northeast U.S. coast is experiencing some of the fastest rates of sea level rise in the world. The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area is particularly at risk from sea level rise and coastal storm impacts. Erosion and storm impacts have already led to the degradation of shoreline habitats and protective structures (e.g., sea walls), as well as direct impacts to historic landmarks on some islands. The need to establish reliable methods for inventory and monitoring of marine nearshore habitats has emerged out of an effort to use the Boston Harbor Islands as study sites to understand how experimental manipulation of the coastline (e.g., the installation of in-water reefs) might reduce wave energy and...
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Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to landowners and land managers interested in the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. The Midwest is not only experiencing an increase in average temperatures and precipitation, but also an increase in the frequency of extreme events, such as heat waves and floods. Forecasting the potential impacts of the changes over the next 25 to 50 years will be important for decision makers and landowners seeking to minimize the impacts to infrastructure and to the habitats themselves and prepare for the future. Changes in flood frequency threaten habitat management infrastructure and actions,...
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Wetland plants are important to Wabanaki people in Maine and are central to Houlton Band of Maliseet Indian (HBMI) identity. HBMI peoples have harvested culturally important plants within the Meduxnekeag watershed for generations. Basket making and medicinal plant harvesting are forms of cultural preservation that are also important to Tribal economies. Projections for climate change in the northeastern U.S. include warmer temperatures and changes in the timing, amount, and intensity of precipitation. The hydrological consequences of projected changes will likely include increased temperatures,reduced winter ice cover on lakes and streams, earlier spring streamflow peaks, reduced summer streamflow, and increased...
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The northeastern U.S. is highly exposed to climate change; in fact, the rate of change is higher than most places on earth (Karmalkar and Bradley 2017). The forests of the Northeast CASC region, and the wildlife that inhabit them, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In particular, the boreal forests, a biome that reaches from Alaska to the Northeast, and the northern hardwoods, including sugar maple and paper birch, are expected to be intolerant of climate warming. Likewise, many of the birds, mammals, amphibians, fish, and insects that inhabit these forest ecosystems are at their southern range edges here and are considered sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, local species’ adaptive capacity...
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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The goal of this project is to identify statistical trends in observed and simulated maximum, minimum and base (mostly groundwater contribution during low flow months) flows in the Northeast Climate Science Center domain during the 20th and 21st century, assess the temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial distribution of the trends, and evaluate the impact of warmer climates on the statistical properties of streamflows (mean and variance). A secondary goal is to determine what GCMs best represent the observed climatology of the region using statistical metrics. Base and minimum flows are vital for fish ecosystem functioning and for riparian vegetation. Climate projections indicate summers will get warmer and drier...
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Plant species are at risk under climate change because their slow dispersal rates limit their ability to shift their spatial distribution in response to rapidly changing conditions. Conservation managers seek to maintain resilient plant communities by planting more native species that are adapted to future climates. However, managers rarely have enough information about which native species are best adapted to climate change within their management areas. This project will provide conservation managers with site-specific lists of climate-adapted plant species. The project team will identify “climate-smart species” by using a new spatial dataset of species composition information from thousands of plant communities...
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Aquatic ecosystems provide habitat and migration corridors to a myriad of species, including plants, fishes, amphibians, birds, mammals, and insects. These ecosystems typically contain relatively higher biodiversity than their terrestrial counterparts; yet, aquatic biodiversity loss in North America is occurring at a rate five times faster than in terrestrial ecosystems. One of the major causes of this accelerated biodiversity loss is climate change. In the last two decades, states in the Northeastern U.S. have developed management plans for protecting aquatic biodiversity. Recent plans consider the general impacts from climate change and include the protection of several habitat types which should promote biodiversity...
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Forests play a role in air quality by supplying the atmosphere with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors to ozone and aerosols. Different tree types emit different VOCs, each with different capacity to form ozone and aerosols. Therefore, shifts in forest composition may impact ozone and aerosol yields. Climate change is one of the expected drivers of forest change. In particular, the current range boundaries of a variety of species are expected to shift northward. The impacts of these climate-induced shifts in forest composition on air quality, particularly VOC emissions and subsequent ozone and aerosol formation, is little understood. This project aimed to explore the relative contribution of shifts in...
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Actionable science has evolved rapidly over the last decade, and the Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network has established itself as a leader in the field. The practice of actionable science is generally described as user-focused, action-oriented science that addresses pressing real-world climate adaptation challenges. It is also sometimes referred to as usable science, translational ecology, and coproduction. Successfully carrying out actionable science projects requires a range of skills, mindsets, and techniques in addition to scientific knowledge. Those skills can include mutual learning with stakeholders, attention to social and political context, iterative creative problem-solving, and interdisciplinary...
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Changing climate conditions could have significant impacts on wildlife health. Shifts in temperature and precipitation may directly affect the occurrence of disease in fish and wildlife by altering their interactions with pathogens (such as the bacterium that causes Lyme disease), helping vectors like mosquitoes and ticks expand their range, or speeding up the time it takes for a parasite to develop from an egg to an adult. Climate change can also indirectly affect the health of fish and wildlife as their habitats change. For example, reduced food availability could lead to overcrowding and increased disease transmission, or warmer temperatures might increase stress levels, weakening immune systems and making animals...
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Salt marshes are grassy wetlands that form along sheltered coastlines. These areas provide crucial habitats for many species of birds and other animals, in addition to recreational activities and economic opportunities. Marshes also protect the coast from storms and filter runoff from the landscape, ensuring cleaner and healthier coastal waters. As climate change causes sea levels to rise salt marshes are at risk of being drowned out if they are unable to grow quickly enough to stay above the rising tides. In order to build elevation and endure sea level rise, marshes trap sediment from tidal waters, which accumulates over time to build a platform that marsh grass can grow on. Along exposed coasts, humans have...
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Overview This project is using a combination of long-term data records and recently established large-scale adaptive management studies in managed forests across the Lake States, New England, Intermountain West, and Black Hills to identify forest management strategies and forest conditions that confer the greatest levels of resistance and resilience to past and emerging stressors and their relevance in addressing future global change. This work represents a broad partnership between scientists from the USFS Northern Research Station, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, USGS, University of MN, University of Maine, and Dartmouth College in an effort to capitalize on over 50 years of data collection on USFS...
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Overview A changing regional climate in the northeastern US has significant implications for the fundamental bioenergetics of fish species, with implications for their population resilience and their ability to provide critical ecosystem services, with particularly important implications for tribal communities. For example, warming soil and water temperatures may increase the accumulation of toxic methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic food webs and in freshwater and migratory fishes. High levels of MeHg currently generate most of the fish consumption advisories across the northeast US, and climate-driven increases carry substantial economic and health risks. However, climate impacts Hg dynamics via multiple pathways...
map background search result map search result map Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems Assessing Climate Change Threats and Adaptation Strategies in Northeast State Wildlife Action Plans Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country A Novel Monitoring Framework to Assess Intertidal Biodiversity in Mixed Coarse Substrate Habitats Across the Boston Harbor Islands Framework for Protecting Aquatic Biodiversity in the Northeast Under Changing Climates Designing Tools and Networks to Support Wabanaki Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network Integrating Climate Change into the State Wildlife Action Plans The Impact of Climate Change on Culturally Significant Wetland Plants and Their Habitat in the Meduxnekeag River Watershed in Maine Effects of Urban Coastal Armoring on Salt Marsh Sediment Supplies and Resilience to Climate Change Using the Virginia Northern Flying Squirrel to Guide Resilient Restoration of Red Spruce in the Central Appalachians Identifying Climate-Smart Native Plants to Support Ecosystem Resilience in the Northeast Evaluating Trends in Streamflow Extremes in the Northeast USA Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England Drivers of Growth, Migration, and Bioaccumulation in Target Fish Species: Implications for a Changing Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast A Novel Monitoring Framework to Assess Intertidal Biodiversity in Mixed Coarse Substrate Habitats Across the Boston Harbor Islands The Impact of Climate Change on Culturally Significant Wetland Plants and Their Habitat in the Meduxnekeag River Watershed in Maine Effects of Urban Coastal Armoring on Salt Marsh Sediment Supplies and Resilience to Climate Change Using the Virginia Northern Flying Squirrel to Guide Resilient Restoration of Red Spruce in the Central Appalachians Evaluating Trends in Streamflow Extremes in the Northeast USA Drivers of Growth, Migration, and Bioaccumulation in Target Fish Species: Implications for a Changing Regional Climate Assessing Climate Change Threats and Adaptation Strategies in Northeast State Wildlife Action Plans Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed Framework for Protecting Aquatic Biodiversity in the Northeast Under Changing Climates Designing Tools and Networks to Support Wabanaki Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change Identifying Climate-Smart Native Plants to Support Ecosystem Resilience in the Northeast Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Integrating Climate Change into the State Wildlife Action Plans State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network