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These data are netcdf files of the projected timing of the onset of thermal stress severe enough (>8 Degree Heating Weeks) to cause coral bleaching 2x per decade and 10x per decade (annual) under emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The projected timing (a year between 2006 and 2100) is the data value. Values are only shown for the ~60,000 four-km pixels where coral reefs are known to occur.
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ArcGIS layer package of relative classifications (low to high) for six resilience indicators and two anthropogenic stressors and a map of final relative resilience scores for 78 sites in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The six resilience indicators are: bleaching resistance, coral diversity, coral recruitment, herbivore biomass, macroalgae cover and temperature variability. The two anthropogenic stressors are fishing access and nutrients and sediments. The resilience score map compares sites across all four of the surveyed islands: Saipan, Tinian, Aguijan, and Rota.
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Maps of relative classifications (low to high) for six resilience indicators and two anthropogenic stressors and a map of final relative resilience scores for 78 sites in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The six resilience indicators are: bleaching resistance, coral diversity, coral recruitment, herbivore biomass, macroalgae cover and temperature variability. The two anthropogenic stressors are fishing access and nutrients and sediments. The resilience score map compares sites across all four of the surveyed islands: Saipan, Tinian, Aguijan, and Rota.
The RAW Data Results for Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning.
Final Report for Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning
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Maps of relative classifications (low to high) for six resilience indicators and two anthropogenic stressors and a map of final relative resilience scores for 78 sites in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The six resilience indicators are: bleaching resistance, coral diversity, coral recruitment, herbivore biomass, macroalgae cover and temperature variability. The two anthropogenic stressors are fishing access and nutrients and sediments. The resilience score map compares sites across all four of the surveyed islands: Saipan, Tinian, Aguijan, and Rota.
Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA...
Climate-change impacts on coral reefs are expected to include temperature-induced spatially extensive bleaching events1. Bleaching causes mortality when temperature stress persists but exposure to bleaching conditions is not expected to be spatially uniform at the regional or global scale2. Here we show the first maps of global projections of bleaching conditions based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 (ref. 3) models forced with the new Representative Concentration Pathways4 (RCPs). For the three RCPs with larger CO2 emissions (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) the onset of annual bleaching conditions is associated with ∼ 510 ppm CO2 equivalent; the median year of all locations is 2040 for the fossil-fuel aggressive RCP 8.5. Spatial...
A tool which displays predicted future coral reef scenarious via Google Earth and KMZ files.
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Coral reefs are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Importantly though, the degree of threat varies for different coral reef areas due to differences in local and regional climate drivers. Climate models are based on the scientific community’s understanding of climate drivers and were used during this project to look forward or ‘project’ conditions in coral reef areas. The projections are global maps that depict changes in acidification and the frequency and severity of the temperature stress events that cause coral bleaching. The project team found that the date by which really severe bleaching is projected to occur annually varies with latitude. Beyond this...
The compressed Data Results for Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning.
Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10–15 years later at high-latitude...


    map background search result map search result map Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in CNMI results Resilience Indicator Summaries and Resilience Scores CNMI Excel database Resilience Indicator Summaries and Resilience Scores CNMI JPEG Maps Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in CNMI results Resilience Indicator Summaries and Resilience Scores CNMI Excel database Resilience Indicator Summaries and Resilience Scores CNMI JPEG Maps Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning