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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Expansion of deadly, mosquito-borne bird diseases such as avian malaria into Hawaiʽi’s high elevation forests as a result of global warming is one of the most significant threats facing the state’s rare native forest birds. Few practical options for control of disease-carrying mosquitoes over large landscapes are available, however. The best hope for remaining species of native birds may be the development of tolerance or resistance to this introduced disease. Therefore, understanding how tolerance and resistance evolve and developing ways to speed this process may be good proactive strategies for addressing impacts of climate change. We evaluated ways to rapidly measure a bird’s natural immunity with the hope that...
For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21%...
As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By...
Climate change is the most pressing societal challenge of our time, with projected changes likely to result in cascading impacts to species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. These impacts will exacerbate current resource challenges for the Hawaiian Islands, such as conflict over water resources, land use and degradation, and invasive species. Resource managers and conservation planners are addressing this challenge by revising current plans and practices with increased attention on potential climate impacts to natural resources, communities, and socioeconomic values to better meet long-term goals. We propose to support resource managers and planners of the main Hawaiian Islands in meeting this challenge by developing...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
The objective of this project is to identify areas where herbivore management interventions would be the most effective in promoting coral reef recovery and resiliency following the recent coral bleaching. When a bleaching event occurs, as Hawaii experienced in 2014 and 2015, the results can be regime shifts or reef decline. Decline can be permanent or temporary, depending on its resilience. There is an urgent need to develop a process to increase the resiliency of Hawaii’s coral reefs through certain characteristics, including herbivory. Herbivory maintains open spaces, promotes remnant corals to recover, and allows new coral to settle in disturbed areas. We will operationalize this concept by 1) integrating Marxan...
Coral reef ecosystems in Hawaii have suffered high rates of mortality following the recent mass bleaching event. In order to prevent phase shifts to degraded reefs, strategies to increase reef resilience following disturbance such as bleaching must be developed. Herbivore management has been identified as a priority management action to increase reef resilience, and the goals of this project were to 1) synthesize climate and herbivore management spatial data layers and 2) utilize Marxan to identify prioritized areas for herbivore management in west Hawaii and Maui Nui.1. The project team synthesized relevant climate and herbivore management spatial data layers from seven sources, and incorporated feedback from four...
Besides coral, Hawaiian forest birds are arguably one of the clearest examples of species vulnerable to climate change. A wealth of studies has recently detailed how both ongoing and projected warming allows for avian malaria to spread at higher elevation areas where most remaining native bird species persist. Temperature is a critical factor for the development of both the disease (Plasmodium relictum) and its vector (Culex quinquefasciatus). As such, their distribution and abundance across the landscape seem to vary across the landscape in response to changing monthly, seasonal and annual conditions. Standard and novel vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds from the...
A comparison of the equations for photosynthesis and calcification in reef corals suggests that the two processes compete for available inorganic carbon; yet reef corals exhibit simultaneous high rates of photosynthesis and calcification during daylight hours. Also, the extreme metabolic activity observed in corals at high irradiance requires a large net efflux of protons at sites of rapid calcification and respiration. Corals have resolved these problems through development of morphologies that separate the zone of rapid calcification (ZC) from the zone of rapid photosynthesis (ZP), with the fixed-carbon energy supply from the ZP being rapidly translocated to the ZC. Translocation of photosynthate from the ZP serves...
Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees Data archive
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The specific objectives of this contract are to identify and categorize key differences and similarities between islands and continental systems that are relevant to achieving sustainable landscapes/seascapes at regional scales; to develop a conservation framework that integrates planning processes for both terrestrial and marine resources that is consistent with the LCC Network Vision and Mission, and that connects landscape conservation design efforts for islands and mainland LCCs and to develop LCD guidelines, definitions, and goals appropriate for islands that are consistent with the SIAS metrics for LCD.
The attached zip file containing the time series (indicators) plots for heavy rain days, number of dry days, number of days with TMAX > 95% and number of days with TMIN < 5%, for Hawaii. 38 stations were used across the state that met the project’s criteria for inclusion. Note that many of them are “precip only” stations, so there are more plots for rain/dry days than temperature.
Estimates of clear sky global solar irradiance using the parametric model SPCTRAL2 were tested against clear sky radiation observations at four sites in Hawai‘i using daily, mean monthly, and 1 year mean model parameter settings. Atmospheric parameters in SPCTRAL2 and similar models are usually set at site-specific values and are not varied to represent the effects of fluctuating humidity, aerosol amount and type, or ozone concentration, because time-dependent atmospheric parameter estimates are not available at most sites of interest. In this study, we sought to determine the added value of using time dependent as opposed to fixed model input parameter settings. At the AERONET site, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO)...
The highest mountain peaks on Hawaii Island are snow covered for part of almost every year. This snow has aesthetic and recreational value as well as cultural significance for residents and visitors. Thus far there have been almost no systematic observations of snowfall, snow cover, or snow depth in Hawaii. Here we use satellite observations to construct a daily index of Hawaii Island snow cover starting from 2000. The seasonal mean of our index displays large interannual variations that are correlated with the seasonal mean freezing level and frequency of trade wind inversions as determined from nearby balloon soundings. Our snow cover index provides a diagnostic for monitoring climate variability and trends within...
Final report for High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands
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Current forest bird number of species based on modeled range and available primary habitat of high model reliability species. Manuscript outputs: Figures 2a, 2b, 3b, 4, 5
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The PICCC collaborated with Hawaiʻi-based video production team, Orig Media, to create a series of short video case studies featuring climate change adaptation plans, projects and activities being conducted by conservationists in Hawaiʻi. These candid, engaging videos are intended to inform and inspire the general public, youths and potential conservation managers.
map background search result map search result map Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Individual forest bird species ensemble projections HITAI CLIMATE ADAPTATION VIDEOS Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Individual forest bird species ensemble projections HITAI CLIMATE ADAPTATION VIDEOS