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National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with...
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Many shorebirds and nearshore waterbirds are of conservation concern across the Gulf of Mexico due to stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss and degradation. Conservation and protection of these birds is important for the functioning of healthy ecosystems and for maintaining biodiversity in North America. Consequently, resource managers along the gulf need decision-aiding tools that can efficiently help to answer important conservation questions for different species (e.g. which areas and how much area should be targeted by management actions to meet a particular species’ needs). To address this need, project researchers are developing statistical models that will help identify habitat...
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The objective of this project was to provide scientists and the general public with access to information about the existence and operation of programs that monitor the effects of global change processes, such as climate and land use change, on important air, land, and water resources. This was a public service project intended to support both education and decision making by providing comprehensive “one stop” access to information about hundreds of monitoring programs in North Carolina and throughout the Southeast. This work aimed to provide additional development of the Global Change Monitoring Portal, which is currently in the pilot phase. Tasks included: • Compile, inventory, and map geographically, additional...
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In this proposal we investigate how tree selection at the local scale affects biodiversity and ecosystem services (Obj. 1). We then look regionally to determine the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests (Obj. 2). We will leverage ongoing investigations of heat-related stress and pest outbreaks in urban and rural forests to develop management recommendations for both systems. These ongoing projects provide a knowledge-base, infrastructure (e.g. study sites), equipment (e.g. Li-Cor Photosynthesis System), and outreach opportunities that will extend the impact of this project (see Synergistic and Future Funding section below). We will also convene a working group...
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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The purpose of this grant was to provide research opportunities to students and staff working with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) with a focus on decision analysis and science communication. Research activities occured primarily within the framework of existing SE CSC-funded projects. Student research supported project activities associated with the development and use of science-based information to make climate adaptation management decisions. Student abilities to participate in these research activities were enhanced by participation in a course entitled “Introduction to Structured Decision Making” taught at the National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) in Shepherdstown, WV. In addition to participation...
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Electronic Supplementary Material ESM Table S1. Calcification rates for the reef coral Siderastrea siderea and crustose coralline algae (CCA) communities at four sites in the Florida Keys, U.S.A, from May 2010 until May 2012. Sample size ( N), mean, and standard error (SEM) are reported. Site Time interval Coral calcification (mg cm-2 d-1) CCA calcification (mg cm-2 d-1) N Mean SEM N Mean SEM Pulaski Shoal N 24° 41.613’ W 82° 46.368’ Summer 2010 10 4.12 0.33 10 0.132 6.8E-03 Winter 2011 10 2.75 0.28 10 0.080 5.0E-03 Summer 2011 9 4.50 0.43 9 0.076 4.5E-03 Winter 2012 9 2.85 0.48 9 0.082 5.8E-03 Sombrero Key N 24° 37.612’ W 81° 06.536’ Summer 2010 10 2.67 0.22 9 0.229 0.018 Winter 2011...
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Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined regions, and expectations that tropical environments will experience greater changes in temperature. Tropical island communities are faced with making important decisions related to adaptation that could impact the health of important natural resources and ecosystems. However, a lack of scientific guidance and information...
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While 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the timing, pattern, and availability of moisture. The development of adaptation strategies that respond to anthropogenic climate change for the CLCC, and particularly for Puerto Rico, is currently hindered by the lack of local-scale climate scenarios that resolve the complex topographical and meso-scale climate features that will...
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This project generated a series of freely available datasets that provide projections of climate change at appropriate spatial scales that can directly address specific management questions. These climate change projections are the result of “downscaling” output from global climate models (GCMs) that formed the basis of many conclusions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5 (AR5). The datasets include projections of climate variables in addition to daily temperature and precipitation such as surface winds, humidity, and solar radiation that are needed in hydrologic and ecological modeling. Two products, one at a 4-km resolution and the other at a 6-km resolution, covering the...
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Climate change doesn’t just threaten our natural resources—it threatens our cultural resources, too. Cultural resources represent evidence of past human activity, such as archeological sites, or are of significance to a group of people traditionally associated with the resource, such as Native American ceremonial sites. Climate change is challenging the long-term persistence of many cultural resources. For example, those located in coastal areas, such as historic lighthouses, are threatened by sea-level rise, shoreline erosion, and more frequent severe storm events. While climate change challenges managers of both natural and cultural resources to make decisions in the face of uncertainty, far less work has been...
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The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than enabling systems to adapt to projected changes. Recognizing this problem state fish and wildlife agencies, together with US Fish and Wildlife Service and others, have initiated the Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS). This project will support the SECAS effort, which aims to develop a collaborative network of conservation...
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Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likely to occur, expressing results in terms of species persistence to help resource managers understand the long-term sustainability of bird populations.
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The Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative (CLCC) Steering Committee (SC) recently made two landmark decisions providing direction for collaborative conservation efforts. The SC agreed to pursue landscape conservation design (LCD) as a major emphasis of collaborative work and they agreed to adopt a values-focused, structured decision-making (SDM) process to guide conservation design development and implementation for the CLCC. Developing both a strategic plan and an implementation approach using a values focused LCD framework was expected to have several advantages. This effort aimed to complement existing conservation efforts in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands conducted by federal, state, and NGO...
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Coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) provide a myriad of beneficial services, including buffering storm surge, improving water quality, supporting commercial fisheries, and providing habitat for imperiled wildlife and plants. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the goods and services provided by NWRs and pose decision-making challenges for refuge managers. The purpose of this project was to explore how structured decision-making – a formal, systematic method for analyzing decisions – could help NWR staff make informed...
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
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Climate change is likely to have many effects on natural ecosystems in the Southeast U.S. While there is information available to conservation managers and ecologists from the global climate models (GCMs), this information is at too coarse a resolution for use in vulnerability assessments and decision making. To better assess how climate change could affect multiple sectors, including ecosystems, climatologists have created several downscaled climate projections that contain information from GCMs translated to regional or local scales. There are a number of techniques that can be used to create downscaled climate projections, and the number of available downscaled climate projections present challenges to users...
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In the Southeastern U.S., “insular ecosystems” may be particularly vulnerable to ecological effects from climate change. These insular ecosystems share a few key biogeographic characteristics: (1) occurrences that are spatially discrete, (2) relatively small geographic footprints, and (3) with steep ecological and environmental gradients at their boundaries. Examples include rock outcrop ecosystems (e.g. Piedmont granite outcrops, Appalachian high-elevation outcrops), grasslands (high-elevation balds, xeric limestone prairies), isolated wetlands (Carolina bays, karst depression wetlands) and riparian riverscour systems. Such insular ecosystems tend to support concentrations of endemic and disjunct species; thus...
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A significant challenge faced by climate scientists and land managers in the public and private sectors is the need for reliable and complete information about the status of ecosystem components (e.g. air, land, water, plants, animals) that may be influenced by climate change. While many organizations monitor one or more aspect of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, these monitoring programs are seldom coordinated and the associated data are not readily discoverable. The Global Change Monitoring Portal (GCMP) is a recently released tool of the DOI Southeast Climate Science Center designed to support the efforts of multiple federal, state, and other organizations by connecting them to these data resources. The GCMP...
map background search result map search result map Evaluating Downscaled Climate Models for Projecting Future Changes in the Southeast Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean Downscaling Climate Projections to Understand Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the Southeast Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Calcification rates for the reef coral/electronic supplementary table Climate change and tidal wetland foundation species: mangroves, marches and salt flats Climate-sensitive, Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S.: The State of the Science and a Case Study of Limestone Cedar Glades in the Central Basin of Tennessee Development of a Global Change Monitoring Portal: Pilot Project for the Southeastern U.S. Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions Global Change Monitoring Portal: Continued Work to Increase Accessibility of Data by Resource Managers SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast Protecting Cultural Resources in the Face of Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments Supporting Strategic Landscape Conservation Decisions in the U.S. Caribbean Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern Protecting Cultural Resources in the Face of Climate Change Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Calcification rates for the reef coral/electronic supplementary table Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Climate-sensitive, Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S.: The State of the Science and a Case Study of Limestone Cedar Glades in the Central Basin of Tennessee Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean Supporting Strategic Landscape Conservation Decisions in the U.S. Caribbean Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern Evaluating Downscaled Climate Models for Projecting Future Changes in the Southeast SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts Climate change and tidal wetland foundation species: mangroves, marches and salt flats Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions Development of a Global Change Monitoring Portal: Pilot Project for the Southeastern U.S. Global Change Monitoring Portal: Continued Work to Increase Accessibility of Data by Resource Managers Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast Downscaling Climate Projections to Understand Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the Southeast