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Identifying the weather thresholds that can transform plant communities is key to assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought and climate shifts, and thus enabling adaptive management to mitigate their impacts on land resources. We asked whether and how drought contributes to decline of big sagebrush, a widespread shrub of the western US that is critical for wildlife such as the imperiled sage grouse yet is poorly adapted to fire. Our objective was to quantitatively define “ecological drought” – water deficits that result in impacts to ecosystems - based on a precise set of weather and soil moisture conditions that are associated with failure of sagebrush stands to recover and sites converted into low-diversity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Drought is expected to become an increasingly important stressor on forests globally, and understanding the physiological mechanisms driving tree drought response is essential for developing effective mitigation and conservation measures for these ecosystems. In 2014, during California’s 2012–2016 “hotter” drought in which higher temperatures exacerbated the effects of low water availability, many giant sequoia trees in the Sierra Nevada mountains exhibited foliage dieback at levels previously unreported. We hypothesized that this apparent drought-induced foliage dieback was associated with spatial patterns of site water balance and consequently tree water status and physiology. As...
Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Reproduction is a key component of ecological resilience in forest ecosystems, so understanding how seed production is influenced by extreme drought is key to understanding forest recovery trajectories. If trees respond to mortality-inducing drought by preferentially allocating resources for reproduction, the recovery of the stand to pre-drought conditions may be enhanced accordingly. We used a 20-year annual seed capture data set to investigate whether seed production by three tree genera commonly found in the Sierra Nevada (Abies, Pinus, and Calocedrus) was correlated with variation in local weather, which included an extreme drought spanning multiple years. We tested whether average seed production differed during...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate and weather-related disasters in California illustrate the need for immediate climate change action - both mitigation to reduce impacts and adaptation to protect our communities, relatives, and the ecosystems we depend upon. Indigenous frontline communities face even greater threats from climate impacts due to historical and political legacies of environmental injustice. Climate change adaptation actions have proven challenging to implement as communities struggle to access necessary climate data at appropriate scales, identify effective strategies that address community priorities, and obtain resources to act, at a whole-community level. In this paper, we present three examples of Indigenous communities...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Sea-level rise is particularly concerning for tidal wetlands that reside within an area with steep topography or are constrained by human development and alteration of sedimentation. Sediment augmentation to increase wetland elevations has been considered as a potential strategy for such areas to prevent wetland loss over the coming decades. However, there is little information on the best approaches and whether adaptive management actions can mimic natural processes to build sea-level rise resilience. In addition, the lack of information on long-term marsh characteristics, processes, and variability can hamper development of effective augmentation strategies. Here, we assess a case study in a southern California...
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are impactful weather events for California communities. Emergency planning efforts and resource management would benefit from extending lead times of skillful prediction for these and other types of extreme weather patterns. Here we describe a methodology for subseasonal prediction of impactful winter weather in California, including ARs, SAWs and heat extremes. The hybrid approach combines dynamical model and historical information to forecast probabilities of impactful weather outcomes at weeks 1–4 lead. This methodology uses dynamical model information considered most reliable, that is, planetary/synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, filters for dynamical...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Valdose Zone): Infiltration and downward percolation of water in the vadose zone are important processes that can define the availability of water resources. We present an approach that provides insight into how periodic infiltration forcings at the land surface filter in a layered vadose zone in terms of changes in the timing and magnitude of hydrologic responses. To represent geologically realistic systems, we used vertical sequences of one-dimensional periodic solutions, where each solution represents a single soil in a layered profile. The overall approach is based on a linearized Richards equation and assumes that the effects on flow of continuous pressure head changes at soil interfaces are...
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Increasing wildfire activity in the western US poses profound risks for human communities and ecological systems. Recent fire years are characterized not only by expanding area burned but also explosive fire growth. In 2020, several fires grew by >100,000 acres within a 24-hour period. Extreme single-day fire spread events such as these are poorly understood but disproportionately responsible for wildfire impacts: just the top 1% of fire spread events account for 20% of annual area burned. Extreme events are linked to warmer and drier conditions, and we project that their frequency could double under future climate. Extreme fire spread events defy suppression and overcome traditional fuels reductions treatments,...
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Managing water resources in arid regions is increasingly important in the face of more frequent droughts and desertification that is occurring with climate change. These challenges of climate change intersect with potential environmental contamination from naturally occurring sources and legacy human activity (such as mining) and create a need for sustainable land and water management planning solutions. This project aims to help create sustainability plans by involving and training the community and by making water resource data accessible and available. The project is a collaboration between the University of Arizona Indigenous Resilience Center, the Southwest Research Information Center, and local communities...
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Across the Navajo Nation, the negative effects of climate change are impacting soil and vegetation management practices to the detriment of ecosystem function, human health, cultural resiliency, and economic well-being. Conducting ecosystem restoration and shifting land management practices are critical elements of climate adaptation and dust mitigation strategies for the Navajo Nation. However, barriers to restoration exist. Restoration in drylands is incredibly difficult and nuanced, requiring the use of appropriate technologies, integration of multiple types of knowledge, appropriate high-quality locally-adapted native plant materials, and environmental professionals skilled in the techniques of dryland restoration...
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The Interior Southwest (Arizona, Nevada, and Utah) is home to a vast and diverse geography consisting of deep canyons, great expanses of desert, mountain ranges, and forests, as well as diverse human communities. The majority of the land in these states is held by state, federal and tribal entities; and environmental changes pose challenges to the management of these public and tribal lands across the region. Assessing and addressing the information needs of federal, state, and tribal resource managers is a critical part of helping these decision-makers manage risk and adapt to these changes. Identification and evaluation of existing barriers and opportunities for knowledge exchange between scientists and managers...
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The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in the southwestern United States. Consistent water level declines in Colorado River Basin reservoirs have focused research attention on the long-term changes in winter precipitation and the timing of snowmelt and runoff. Research on how warming temperatures affect winter precipitation and spring snowmelt is ongoing, however, less attention has been given to changes in spring and summer precipitation which also affects water supply, plant growth, and competition between native and non-native plants, and, in turn affects wildfire dynamics and wildlife habitat. The amount and timing of summer precipitation is largely influenced by variation in the North American...
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The Southwest Fire Climate Adaptation Partnership (SW FireCAP) is working to advance fire and climate adaptation in the southwestern U.S. Focused on cross-organizational collaboration and leveraging resources, the partnership facilitates climate adaptation planning by “sharing Indigenous and Western knowledge perspectives, being inclusive, and building trust.” The Collaborative Conservation and Adaptation Strategies Toolbox (CCAST) is a similar effort, established to document effective conservation initiatives and develop decision-support tools. Both initiatives are focused on showcasing high quality science-to-policy research and innovative, on-the-ground conservation management practices and promoting peer-to-peer...
Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region has not significantly changed. Yet how fire regime will respond to future anthropogenic climate change remains an important question. Here, we estimate wildfire probability in southern California at station scale and daily resolution using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations. We project that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year during 1970–1999 to 58 days/year under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year by 2070–2099 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The large fire...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Background: The need for basic information on spatial distribution and abundance of plant species for research and management in semiarid ecosystems is frequently unmet. This need is particularly acute in the large areas impacted by megafires in sagebrush steppe ecosystems, which require frequently updated information about increases in exotic annual invaders or recovery of desirable perennials. Remote sensing provides one avenue for obtaining this information. We considered how a vegetation model based on Landsat satellite imagery (30 m pixel resolution; annual images from 1985 to 2018) known as the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) “Back-in-Time” fractional component time-series, compared with field-based vegetation...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Interannual variation, especially weather, is an often-cited reason for restoration “failures”; yet its importance is difficult to experimentally isolate across broad spatiotemporal extents, due to correlations between weather and site characteristics. We examined post-fire treatments within sagebrush-steppe ecosystems to ask: (1) Is weather following seeding efforts a primary reason why restoration outcomes depart from predictions? and (2) Does the management-relevance of weather differ across space and with time since treatment? Our analysis quantified range-wide patterns of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) recovery, by integrating long-term records of restoration and annual vegetation cover estimates from satellite...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


map background search result map search result map Building Knowledge Exchange Networks to Support Climate Adaptation in the Interior Southwest Uniting Western Restoration Strategies and Traditional Knowledge to Build Community Capacity and Climate Resilience on the Navajo Nation Understanding Extreme Wildfire Events to Manage for Fire-Resistant and Resilient Landscapes Promoting Peer-to-Peer Knowledge Exchange on Climate and Fire Adaptation in the Southwestern United States Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin Cultivating Water Resilience with Indigenous Peoples in Arid Lands Uniting Western Restoration Strategies and Traditional Knowledge to Build Community Capacity and Climate Resilience on the Navajo Nation Cultivating Water Resilience with Indigenous Peoples in Arid Lands Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin Understanding Extreme Wildfire Events to Manage for Fire-Resistant and Resilient Landscapes Building Knowledge Exchange Networks to Support Climate Adaptation in the Interior Southwest Promoting Peer-to-Peer Knowledge Exchange on Climate and Fire Adaptation in the Southwestern United States