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Western Alaska is one of the fastest warming regions on the globe and recent trends are expected to continue into the next century, likely having substantial effects on the aquatic resources of this region. While increased air temperatures will have direct effects on water temperatures, indirect effects due to changes in precipitation, groundwater characteristics, and flow regimes may have much larger effects on aquatic ecosystems. Coastal watersheds of Western Alaska are expected to receive 25-50% more snow and 18-25% more rain in the next century. Future “climate warming” may actually cool some streams if the ratio of snow to rain increases for coastal watersheds, while rain-dominated streams are likely to become...
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This project, with funding support by the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative andpartners, will address the need to better understand the impact that climate change will have on oursalmon subsistence resources in southeast Alaska. Working with federal and state agencies, as well ascommunity-based organizations and tribal governments, this project will 1) build a network that supportslocal organizations in their efforts to collect stream temperature data, and 2) coordinate those efforts sothat the data will inform and empower management agencies, researchers, and communities to adapt tochanging conditions for fish in the freshwater stages of their lifecycles.
This project will expand abundance & distribution models for seabirds, currently underway in Aleutian Is region (USFWS-funded project under Survey, Monitoring & Assessment program) to the greater ABSI-LCC region, and integrate 2013 seabird surveys into the analysis. In particular, this expanded effort would first focus on the North Bering Sea/Bering Strait/southern Chukchi region, which has greatest potential for increased vessel traffic and development. Using at-sea survey data, colony data, and environmental parameters, Tern Again Consulting (Dr. M. Renner) is developing seasonal species-specific models of seabird distribution in the Aleutian Islands region for use in a shipping risk assessment. The resulting...
To assess the vulnerability of a region to invasive plants, documentation of the presence or absence of invasive plants is necessary. This project expands on work initiated by the EPA to identify invasive plants in rural communities in the Bristol Bay region. Between the two efforts, 26 villages will be inventoried for invasive plant species; this will provide both an essential baseline for understanding the potential impact from these plants and the opportunity to treat the existing populations before they invade new areas. The second part of the project will use these data to assess the vulnerability of important subsistence plants (blueberry and low-bush cranberry) to changes in pollination, as key insect species...
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The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) encompasses the southernmost, warmest parts of the arctic tundra biome and is renowned for its high biological productivity and large subsistence-based human population. Ice-rich permafrost currently is widespread and strongly influences terrestrial and aquatic habitats, including local topography, vegetation, soil hydrology, and the water balance of lakes. Ground temperatures are near the freezing point, however, and recent projections indicate that the YKD is poised for widespread loss of permafrost by the end of this century. This has implications for the region’s extensive and heretofore stable terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Tundra wildfire is a common ecological “pulse” disturbance...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, AK-00, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, Conservation NGOs, All tags...
This project integrates projections from two climate downscaling approaches into a series of future climate scenarios that will be used to assess the vulnerability of resources and ecosystem services within the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands LCC. It consists of 4 phases: 1) downscaled climate model integration and synthesis, and engagement with key researchers; 2) the development of a set of likely future climate scenarios based on common model projections; 3) an evaluation and synthesis of vulnerabilities of key resources and ecosystem services; and 4) presentation of results and engagement of regional managers and stakeholders in a dialogue about further research and implications. This project will occur as collaboration...
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FY2011Increasingly large wildfires in the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau have led to large dust storms in areas historically without them. Large dust storms have adversely affected human health, energy production operations, soil fertility, and mountain snowpack hydrology. USGS research efforts have investigated the causes and consequences of post-fire dust storms. Publications from this work are being used by managers with the Bureau of Land Management, Department of Energy, and other land managers to develop management practices that will minimize dust production.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Aeolian transport, Data Acquisition and Development, Federal resource managers, Great Basin, All tags...
Protecting and restoring ecological connectivity is a leading climate adaptation strategy forbiodiversity conservation (Heller & Zavaleta 2009, Lawler 2009), because species are expectedto have difficulty tracking shifting climates across fragmented landscapes (Thomas et al. 2004).Connectivity conservation is thus a primary focus of numerous large-scale climate adaptationinitiatives (e.g., U.S. Department of Interior’s Landscape Conservation Cooperatives), and a corestrategy of many federal climate adaptation plans (NPS 2010, USFS 2011, USFWS 2010). Thishas led to a growing need for approaches that identify priority areas for connectivityconservation in a changing climate.Riparian areas have been identified as key...
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Assessing Future Energy Development across the Appalachian LCC used models that combined data on energy development trends and identified where these may intersect with important natural resource and ecosystem services to give a more comprehensive picture of what potential energy development could look like in the Appalachians. Ultimately this information is intended to support dialogue and conservation on how to effectively avoid, minimize, and offset impacts from energy development to important natural areas and the valuable services they provide.A final report from the study outlines the major findings of the potential footprint from coal, wind, and natural gas development. Models that depicts the probability...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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Webinar for by Meade Krosby, UW, July 24, 2014Protecting and restoring ecological connectivity is a leading climate adaptation strategy forbiodiversity conservation (Heller & Zavaleta 2009, Lawler 2009), because species are expectedto have difficulty tracking shifting climates across fragmented landscapes (Thomas et al. 2004).Connectivity conservation is thus a primary focus of numerous large-scale climate adaptationinitiatives (e.g., U.S. Department of Interior’s Landscape Conservation Cooperatives), and a corestrategy of many federal climate adaptation plans (NPS 2010, USFS 2011, USFWS 2010). Thishas led to a growing need for approaches that identify priority areas for connectivityconservation in a changing climate.Riparian...
Numerous studies show that ongoing climate change will have major effects on the distribution and conservation status of much of our biodiversity. Resource managers urgently need a means to identify which species and habitats are most vulnerable to decline in order to direct resources where they will be most effective. To address this need, NatureServe and Heritage Program collaborators have developed a Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to provide a rapid, scientifically defensible assessment of species’ vulnerability to climate change. The CCVI integrates information about exposure to altered climates and species-specific sensitivity factors known to be associated with vulnerability to climate change. This...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2010, 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Applications and Tools, Applications and Tools, All tags...
The Aleutian archipelago is an area that is rich in cultural history. Information about cultural sites and artifacts exists in a variety of formats including peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and other records. The purpose of this project is to: (1) develop GIS data layer(s) of cultural sites that can be used in vulnerability assessments; and (2) develop an annotated bibliography of literature about cultural resources that can help guide future management and research in the region.
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Existing stream temperature data were compiled from numerous federal, state, tribal, and private sources to develop an integrated regional database. Spatial statistical models for river networks were applied to these data to develop an accurate model that predicts stream temperature for all fish-bearing streams in the US portion of the GNLCC. Differences between model outputs for historic and future climate scenarios were used to assess spatial variation in the vulnerability of sensitive fish species across the GNLCC.FY2011Objectives: Develop a regional stream temperature model that incorporates important climate drivers, wildfire/riparian conditions, and geomorphic factors; Use the model to understand and predict...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Aquatic Connectivity, British Columbia, Bull Trout, CA-1, All tags...
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Protecting and restoring ecological connectivity is a leading climate adaptation strategy forbiodiversity conservation (Heller & Zavaleta 2009, Lawler 2009), because species are expectedto have difficulty tracking shifting climates across fragmented landscapes (Thomas et al. 2004).Connectivity conservation is thus a primary focus of numerous large-scale climate adaptationinitiatives (e.g., U.S. Department of Interior’s Landscape Conservation Cooperatives), and a corestrategy of many federal climate adaptation plans (NPS 2010, USFS 2011, USFWS 2010). Thishas led to a growing need for approaches that identify priority areas for connectivityconservation in a changing climate.Riparian areas have been identified as key...
Partners developed a simulation model to better show how various projections associated with increased marine traffic in the Bering Sea might look in the coming decades. These simulations are able to help communities and managers better understand future patterns of traffic in the Bering Sea region as a whole, and look more specifically at possible changes in key areas of concern like the Bering Strait.Following vessel activity analysis and considering vessel type, transit routes, route timing, routing speed, and ports of call, we developed a novel agent-based, spatially-explicit, baseline model of current marine vessel traffic patterns. We then applied projections about changes in traffic volume from a report by...
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FY2014This project proposes to test the hypothesis that soil fungistasis (suppression of fungal pathogens by soil microbes in carbohydrate-limited soil) and its alleviation through natural carbohydrate augmentation (e.g., cheatgrass litter, leakage from cheatgrass roots) are the principal processes mediating patterns of cheatgrass die-off and recovery in die-off-prone areas.The project team will use laboratory, greenhouse, and field manipulative experiments to examine the effect of soil carbohydrates on cheatgrass disease incidence.


map background search result map search result map The NorWeST Regional Stream Temperature Model for Mapping Thermal Habitats and Predicting Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Climate Change Across the Great Northern LCC Mapping Pacific Northwest Riparian Areas: Measuring Current Condition And Prioritizing For Climate Change Adaptation Final Report:  Riparian Climate Corridors:Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation in a Changing Climate A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Ecosystem Dynamics and Fate of Warm Permafrost after Tundra Wildfire and Lake Drainage on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Cheatgrass Stand Failure in the Great Basin: Fungal Pathogens, Carbon Dynamics, and Fungistasis Developing a Southeast Alaska community-based stream temperature monitoring network Webinar:  Riparian Climate Corridors:Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation in a Changing Climate Assessing Future Energy Development Across the Appalachians Watershed control of hydrologic sources and thermal conditions in SW Alaska streams: a framework for forecasting effects of changing climate Dust Erosion Following Wildfires and Drought The NorWeST Regional Stream Temperature Model for Mapping Thermal Habitats and Predicting Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Climate Change Across the Great Northern LCC Cheatgrass Stand Failure in the Great Basin: Fungal Pathogens, Carbon Dynamics, and Fungistasis Ecosystem Dynamics and Fate of Warm Permafrost after Tundra Wildfire and Lake Drainage on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Developing a Southeast Alaska community-based stream temperature monitoring network A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Dust Erosion Following Wildfires and Drought Mapping Pacific Northwest Riparian Areas: Measuring Current Condition And Prioritizing For Climate Change Adaptation Final Report:  Riparian Climate Corridors:Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation in a Changing Climate Webinar:  Riparian Climate Corridors:Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation in a Changing Climate Assessing Future Energy Development Across the Appalachians