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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables....
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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For management agencies, there is a growing need to understand (1) how climate change affects and will continue to affect wildlife populations of conservation concern, and (2) how the negative Upper Midwest Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative Request for Funding 2013 demographic effects of climate change can be mitigated through management strategies. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) integrates available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, details assumptions and uncertainties, and ultimately projects population-level responses of target species to future climate change. Climate change is already influencing distributions and abundances of species throughout North...
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There is a need to understand how alteration of physical processes on the Rio Grande River have impacted aquatic biota and their habitats, and a need to predict potential future effects of climate change on biotic resources in order to prescribe research and management activities that will enhance conservation of aquatic species. We propose a project with the goal of developing monitoring recommendations and identifying research needs for aquatic ecological resources in the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande. This goal will be targeted by synthesizing and analyzing available data and literature for aquatic species in the project region. In particular, we will work to develop time series of abundance and population...
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Description: The upper Gila River in New Mexico is one of the few unobstructed rivers in the Colorado River Basin with largely intact native fish populations, including four federally listed and one state listed species.Freshwater systems throughout the West continue to be threatened by human encroachment and water development. Methodologies or decision support tools to evaluate resource management practices that foster an understanding of how fish species adapt to the effects of climate change are critical to future resource management planning.
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We propose to use long-term fish-population data from a relict reach of the Pecos River, New Mexico to assess population dynamics of imperiled prairie-river minnows, including Arkansas River shiner. Development of viable management strategies requires basic understanding of population ecology. Rigorous, quantitative ecological methods can be used to analyze continuous, long-term demographic data, but such data are rarely available for imperiled, non-game fishes. Data available for the Pecos River provide a unique opportunity to apply quantitative methods to prairie-river minnow conservation and management. Analyses proposed here would determine (1) whether population regulation is density dependent or flow-regime...
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Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely recognized as among the most important threats to global biodiversity. New analytical approaches are providing improved ability to predict the effects of landscape change on population connectivity at vast spatial extents. This paper presents an analysis of population connectivity for three species of conservation concern [swift fox (Vulpes velox); lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus); massasuaga (Sistrurus catenatus)] across the American Great Plains region. We used factorial least-cost path and resistant kernel analyses to predict effects of landscape conditions on corridor network connectivity. Our predictions of population connectivity provide testable...
Categories: Data, Project, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, CO-01, CO-02, CO-03, CO-04, All tags...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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The Arkansas River Shiner (ARS), Notropis girardi, is a federally threatened minnow that now occurs natively in modest numbers only in the South Canadian River, following decades of range contraction and population losses. The remaining populations are at increasing risk as global change is expected to impact the upper and middle South Canadian River with a rise in temperature as much as 4-6 F and a decrease in precipitation from 10 to 35 % in this century. The primary objective of this project was to evaluate potential effects of habitat and environmental change on Arkansas River shiners by examination of habitat use and availability at several spatial scales using both historical and recently-collected data from...
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Species populations are in a state of flux due to the cumulative and interacting impacts of climate change and human stressors across landscapes. Invasive spread, pathogen outbreaks, land-use activities, and especially climate disruption and its associated impacts—severe drought (see Figure 3 or the GPLCC), reduced stream flow, increased wildfire frequency, extended growing season, and extreme weather events—are increasing, and in some cases accelerating. These impacts are outpacing management and conservation responses intended to support trust species and their critical habitats. Our common goal is to craft successful adaptation strategies in the face of these multiple, interacting drivers of environmental change....
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, Academics & scientific researchers, CO-01, CO-02, CO-03, All tags...
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The importance of riparian ecosystems in semiarid and arid regions has generated interest in understanding processes that drive the distribution and abundance of dominant riparian plants. Changes in streamflow patterns downstream of dams have profoundly affected riparian vegetation composition and structure. For example, in the southwestern United States, flow regulation has contributed to the replacement of many riparian forests historically dominated by the native Populus fremontii (Fremont Cottonwood) and Salix gooddingii (Goodding’s Willow) by the exotic species Tamarix spp. (Salt Cedar). The proposed project will help guide reservoir release decision making to enhance downstream recruitment of native cottonwood...
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Executive Summary: Evolution of policies that guide operation of individual reservoir systems begins with a relative flurry of activity associated with building of dams. Over perhaps a ten year period, operations are proposed in anticipation of construction, implemented when a dam is complete, and then modified as the effects, capabilities, and limitations of the project become better understood. After these initial adjustments, the policy process slowly begins to simmer. Operational changes are the driven by short-term influences that are largely episodic (e.g. droughts and floods) and long-term influences (e.g. social and economic factors) that affect operations more gradually.
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This report provides a final update of work performed for the period beginning December 20, 2010 and ending December 31, 2012. The report describes two umbrella projects: (1) to improve fish passage and landscape connectivity for native species and 2) to determine the thermal effects on fish species sensitive to climate change. The work was performed through a partnership led by the Western Transportation Institute at Montana State University and the Bozeman Fish Technology Center (BFTC) of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. The report is divided into five chapters that provide details on accomplishments to meet specific objectives outlined in our proposal during the period. Several of the projects that...
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Explore climate change impacts on vegetation across the Desert and Southern Rockies LCCs using historical monitoring data collected from 23 sites across the Sonoran, Chihuahuan, Mojave and Colorado Plateau deserts for 30-50 years. This data will then be combined with ecosystem water balance model simulations to establish features of water availability critical for plant species response. Results will allow managers to identify species and communities at risk under future climate scenarios based on predicted changes in plant water availability. Due to the high variability in soils, incorporating a detailed understanding of soil water availability beyond bioclimatic envelope approaches in the desert Southwest is essential...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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Southern Nevada Water Authority will add new modeling and analytical capabilities to tools developed as part of a previous WaterSMART Climate Analysis Tools Grant that assessed impacts of climate change on water quality and sediment transport in Lake Mead. Project results are intended to increase an understanding of how water quality characteristics and nutrient levels in Lake Mead may be affected by climate change.
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Collections of fishes used for data analyses in the project:Historic and Current Habitat Use by Arkansas River Shiner in the South Canadian River in Central Oklahoma as Affected by River Flow: Predictions for Habitat Under Future Climate Scenarios”. Edie Marsh-Matthews and William J. Matthews. Funded and published by the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative.Collections were all made by seines of a variety of sizes and mesh widths (details for collections are in the appropriate section of the report). Fishes collected were either identified in the field and released or preserved in the field and returned to the laboratory for identification. Habitat data were recorded for each site at different spatial...


map background search result map search result map Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems Decision support for climate change adaptation in the GPLCC: Creating geospatial data products for ecosystem assessments and predictive species modeling Ecological changes in aquatic communities in the Big Bend reach of the Rio Grande: Synthesis and future monitoring needs Species Data Collections: Minnow species collections for the South Canadian River in Central Oklahoma Final Report BOR R13AP80034 FY13: (A Study of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality and Internal Nutrient Recycling in Lake Mead, Arizona-Nevada) Resources: Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems Science Brief for Resource Managers: Metacommunity Dynamics of Gila River Fishes Publication: A blind spot in climate change Report: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Species of Conservation Concern: Distributions and Demographics Across a Landscape Conservation Cooperative Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region Fish Passage in Plains and Prairie Waterways report Project Summary: Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Final Report: Historic and Current Habitat Use by Arkansas River Shiner in the South Canadian River in Central Oklahoma as Affected by River Flow: Predictions for Habitat Under Future Climate Scenarios Project Summary: Climate change planning for the Great Plains:  Wildlife vulnerability assessment and potential for mitigation with grazing management Project Summary: Provision and inventory of diverse aquatic ecosystem-related resources for the GPLCC Final Report BOR R13AP80034 FY13: (A Study of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality and Internal Nutrient Recycling in Lake Mead, Arizona-Nevada) Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems Resources: Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems Ecological changes in aquatic communities in the Big Bend reach of the Rio Grande: Synthesis and future monitoring needs Science Brief for Resource Managers: Metacommunity Dynamics of Gila River Fishes Project Summary: Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Species Data Collections: Minnow species collections for the South Canadian River in Central Oklahoma Final Report: Historic and Current Habitat Use by Arkansas River Shiner in the South Canadian River in Central Oklahoma as Affected by River Flow: Predictions for Habitat Under Future Climate Scenarios Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Decision support for climate change adaptation in the GPLCC: Creating geospatial data products for ecosystem assessments and predictive species modeling Project Summary: Climate change planning for the Great Plains:  Wildlife vulnerability assessment and potential for mitigation with grazing management Project Summary: Provision and inventory of diverse aquatic ecosystem-related resources for the GPLCC Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region Fish Passage in Plains and Prairie Waterways report Publication: A blind spot in climate change Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Report: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Species of Conservation Concern: Distributions and Demographics Across a Landscape Conservation Cooperative