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Road crossings at rivers and streams can create barriers to the movement of migratory fish when they are improperly designed or constructed. Washington State is home to several threatened species of salmon and trout, including bull trout, and recovery plans for these fish include repairing or replacing culverts that currently block their passage. The state is currently looking to replace approximately 1,000 culverts at an estimated cost of $2.45 billion. As engineers re-design these culverts, which typically have a service life of 50-100 years, it will be important to consider how changing climate conditions will impact streams in the region. Climate change is projected to increase peak streamflows, and therefore...
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A rapidly changing climate and expanding human footprint is driving increased rates of landscape change in the Pacific Northwest. This makes it challenging for managers to know if and to what extent recovery goals and conservation plans for at-risk species need to be modified to account for changing habitat conditions. Addressing this challenge requires accurate, up-to-date information about landscape change and how it affects the habitat and viability of at-risk species. In addition, managers need to be alerted when trends in habitat conditions approach key ecological thresholds, in order to determine if management goals and plans need to be modified in response to these changes. The goal of this project is to...
Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing...
Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) has increased the extent and frequency of fire and negatively affected native plant and animal species across the Intermountain West (USA). However, the strengths of association between cheatgrass occurrence or abundance and fire, livestock grazing, and precipitation are not well understood. We used 14 years of data from 417 sites across 10,000 km(2) in the central Great Basin to assess the effects of the foregoing predictors on cheatgrass occurrence and prevalence (i.e., given occurrence, the proportion of measurements in which the species was detected). We implemented hierarchical Bayesian models and considered covariates for which > 0.90 or < 0.10 of the posterior predictive mass...
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Climate change threatens many wildlife species across the Pacific Northwest. As the climate continues to change, wildlife managers are faced with the ever-increasing challenge of allocating scarce resources to conserve at-risk species, and require more information to prioritize sites for conservation. However, climate change will affect species differently in different places. In fact, some places may serve as refuges for wildlife—places where animals can remain or to which they can easily move to escape the worst impacts of climate change. Currently, different datasets exist for identifying these resilient landscapes, known as climate refugia, but they are often not readily useable by wildlife managers. To address...
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Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be generally reduced in the future because of multiple factors including climate change, increased drought frequency and severity, and altered water and land use. Thus, it is important resource managers understand which areas are most vulnerable to reduced water availability impacts, and to what extent current conditions may...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broad North American range. As a relatively drought intolerant species, projected changes of altered precipitation timing, amount, and type (e.g. snow or rain) may influence aspen response to fire, especially in moisture-limited and winter precipitation-dominated portions of its range. Aspen is...
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Snow conditions are changing dramatically in the mountains of the interior Pacific Northwest, including eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and western Montana. These changes can both benefit and hinder a variety of wildlife species. The timing and extent of seasonal snowpacks, in addition to snow depth, density, and hardness, can impact the ability of wildlife to access forage, their ability to move across the landscape, and their vulnerability to predators, to name a few. In order to respond effectively to changes in snow conditions, wildlife managers need tools to identify areas and promote conditions that maintain late spring and early summer snowpack for some sensitive species. Managers also require an index...
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Natural resource managers are confronted with the pressing challenge to develop conservation plans that address complex ecological and societal needs against the backdrop of a rapidly changing climate. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) provide valuable information that helps guide management and conservation actions in this regard. An essential component to CCVAs is understanding adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change. However, adaptive capacity is the least understood and evaluated component of CCVAs. This is largely due to a fundamental need for guidance on how to assess adaptive capacity and incorporate this information into conservation planning...
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Big sagebrush plant communities are important and widespread in western North America and are crucial for meeting long-term conservation goals for greater sage-grouse and other wildlife of conservation concern. Yet wildfire is increasing in the West, turning biodiverse, shrub-based ecosystems dominated by sagebrush into grasslands containing invasive species such as cheatgrass and less overall plant and animal diversity. These transformations negatively impact people and ecosystems by reducing habitat quality for wildlife and the aesthetic value of the landscape. Understanding how sagebrush communities are already responding and will continue to respond to changes in wildfire, invasive species, and climate is...
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The headwaters of the Columbia River Basin in the Northern Rocky Mountains region is widely recognized as a stronghold for native fish, containing some of the last remaining connected cold-water habitats for species such as the threatened bull trout and native westslope cutthroat trout. However, as temperatures rise, non-native invasive fish species could be poised to prosper in the region as conditions start to favor warm-water species over those that require cooler waters to thrive. The spread of invasive fish species has the potential to devastate native fish populations, stream habitats, and the local cultures and economies that depend on healthy aquatic ecosystems – including the region’s multi-billion dollar...
Abstract (from Ecography): Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species’ habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological‐niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially‐explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily‐available spatial...
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Healthy shellfish beds provide important ecosystem services, support local economies, and promote human well-being and sense of place. For Coast Salish Tribes, including the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (SITC), clams are a highly valued traditional food, playing a key role in Coast Salish worldviews. Clam harvests also provide: opportunities for tribal members to exercise their treaty rights; access to a local source of protein; and educational opportunities where elders can share teachings with youth that honor and reinforce community values like stewardship and reciprocity. However, clams and clam habitats are threatened by climate change and ocean acidification. Recent research reports a decline in native...
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A persistent management question is whether current climate adaptation planning will remain robust when facing a growing number of invasive species. The concern is that current management strategies that focus exclusively on single invasive species and overlook climate-driven biological interactions, may lead to poor decisions. By delivering actionable science, this project directly informs specific planning, management and decision needs of tribal and governmental partners working in the Columbia River Basin. First, we assess the information needs for, and barriers to, effective aquatic invasive species management in the face of climate change in the Columbia River Basin. This helps synthesize knowledge and build...
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A change in wildfire regimes and the expansion of invasive grasses are degrading sagebrush ecosystems, altering wildlife habitats, and threatening property and human livelihoods. In response, land managers often treat large areas of land with fuel reduction or post-fire seeding treatments in an attempt to reduce these risks. However, the trajectories of ecosystem change following treatment are inconsistent across the sagebrush steppe. In some places, treatments are successful, leading to a decrease in invasive grasses which allows native plants to recover. In other places, treatments either have no effect or they facilitate the spread of invasive grasses. Under some climate conditions, native grasses and forbs do...
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Tribal nations in the Pacific Northwest have distinctive, long-standing relationships with their aboriginal lands and associated resources. These relationships are being disrupted by changing climate conditions. Most scientific information about changes in forests and other ecosystems have not been directed toward addressing the concerns of tribal communities. For example, they lack culturally-specific information pertaining to tribal knowledge systems, cultural practices, livelihoods, food and water security, and economies. Furthermore, ensuring that research is conducted in ways that are relevant to tribes is difficult when those who produce these studies lack experience in working with tribes, and are unfamiliar...
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Recent advancements in climate modeling, remote sensing, and ecological science have produced a variety of digital geospatial datasets representing many aspects of climate-change ecology that can be applied to conservation and natural-resource management in the face of climate change. The ever increasing body of climate-ecology spatial datasets provides opportunities for natural-resource managers to anticipate climate-driven changes to ecosystems, habitats, and the larger landscape, however, natural-resource managers face many challenges when trying to incorporate these diverse sources of information into on-the-ground decision-making. The Northwest CASC recently supported the development of A guidebook to spatial...
Abstract (from AGU100): In complex terrain, drifting snow contributes to ecohydrologic landscape heterogeneity and ecological refugia. In this study, we assessed the climate sensitivity of hydrological dynamics in a semiarid mountainous catchment in the snow‐to‐rain transition zone. This catchment includes a distinct snow drift‐subsidized refugium that comprises a small portion (14.5%) of the watershed but accounts for a disproportionate amount (modeled average 56%) of hydrological flux generation. We conducted climate sensitivity experiments using a physically based hydrologic model to assess responses of a suite of hydrologic metrics across the watershed. Experiments with an imposed 3.5 °C warming showed reductions...
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Sagebrush steppe is one of the most widely distributed ecosystems in North America. Found in eleven western states, this important yet fragile ecosystem is dominated by sagebrush, but also contains a diversity of native shrubs, grasses, and flowering plants. It provides critical habitat for wildlife like pronghorn and threatened species such as the greater sage-grouse, and is grazed by livestock on public and private lands. However, this landscape is increasingly threatened by shifts in wildfire patterns, the spread of invasive grasses, and changing climate conditions. While sagebrush is slow to recover after fires, non-native grasses such as cheatgrass thrive in post-fire conditions and the spread of these species...
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Throughout the Pacific Northwest, invasive flora threaten river ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. Invasive plants harm water quality, occupy habitat for native species, reduce recreation opportunities, and damage infrastructure such as pumps and dams. Resource managers from federal, state, and local agencies, as well as local non-profits, spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on monitoring and exterminating invasive plants. Management costs and damages are likely to rise as climate change warms temperatures and reduces rainfall across the basin, expanding potential habitat for invasive plants and affecting the effectiveness of management. For some time, scientists have recognized the potential...
map background search result map search result map Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Supporting Climate-Resilient Design for In-Stream Restoration and Fish Passage Projects Predicting Climate-Induced Expansions of Invasive Fish in the Pacific Northwest: Implications for Climate Adaptation of Native Salmon and Trout Climate Refugia and Resilience Atlas: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Species of Concern in a Changing Climate Examining the Effects of Climate on American Indian Uses of Forests in Pacific Northwest and Northern California An Alert System for Managing At-Risk Species in Cascadia under Climate Change Estimating the Spatial and Temporal Extent of Snowpack Properties in Complex Terrain: Leveraging Novel Data to Adapt Wildlife and Habitat Management Practices to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest Clam Gardens: An Indigenous Community-Driven Climate Adaptation Strategy to Manage Aquatic Species and Habitats in the Pacific Northwest Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Integrating Economics and Ecology to Inform Climate-Ready Aquatic Invasive Species Management for Vulnerable Pacific Northwest River Communities Anticipating Climate-Driven Spread and Impact of Multiple Interacting Invasive Species in the Columbia River Basin Integrating Economics and Ecology to Inform Climate-Ready Aquatic Invasive Species Management for Vulnerable Pacific Northwest River Communities Supporting Climate-Resilient Design for In-Stream Restoration and Fish Passage Projects Anticipating Climate-Driven Spread and Impact of Multiple Interacting Invasive Species in the Columbia River Basin Examining the Effects of Climate on American Indian Uses of Forests in Pacific Northwest and Northern California Climate Refugia and Resilience Atlas: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Species of Concern in a Changing Climate Estimating the Spatial and Temporal Extent of Snowpack Properties in Complex Terrain: Leveraging Novel Data to Adapt Wildlife and Habitat Management Practices to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century An Alert System for Managing At-Risk Species in Cascadia under Climate Change Predicting Climate-Induced Expansions of Invasive Fish in the Pacific Northwest: Implications for Climate Adaptation of Native Salmon and Trout