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Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish...
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Ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries is widely impaired, and many agencies and organizations are currently investing in restoring these connections to enhance target fish and wildlife populations. To assist in targeting these investments, we have been developing spatial data on the location and attributes of barriers (dams and road-stream crossings) and fish breeding habitat throughout the Great Lakes basin to analyze the optimum strategy for enhancing connectivity and restoring fish migrations. The proposed work will result in guidance for barrier restoration at scales from individual watersheds to the entire basin, refine methodologies for spatial analysis of barriers, and provide...
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Reduced to its most fundamental level, the management problem addressed by this project is the basic conflict between the fact that fish need water and the reality that the amount and quality of the water available has been dramatically altered by human activities. For fishes dependent upon specific flows for successful reproduction, the quality and quantity of available water are likely the primary determinants of habitat quality. In many cases, the minimum requirements of water quantity and quality needed to support self-sustaining fish populations are unknown and thus there is no way for resource managers to effectively assess habitat quality and its ability to support fish populations under current or future...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), CATFISHES/MINNOWS, All tags...
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Man-made water sources have been used as a management tool for wildlife, especially in arid regions, but the value of these water sources for wildlife populations is not well understood. In particular, the value of water as a conservation tool for Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is unknown. However, this is a relevant issue due to a heightened conservation concern for the species and its occupancy of an arid landscape anticipated to experience warmer, drier springs and winters. We assessed if Lesser Prairie-Chickens would use commercially available wildlife water guzzlers and if there was any apparent selection between two design types. We confirmed that Lesser Prairie-Chickens would use bird...
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Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes,...
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In total this project has developed digital wetland inventory and habitat data for ten counties within and around the Great Lakes watershed of Wisconsin. Digital data has now been completed for the following counties: Sawyer, Sauk, Barron, Polk, Langlade, Menominee, Price, Shawano, Taylor, and Winnebago.
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The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-­consistent set of downscaled projections across the western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections - in particular for extreme events - is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models...
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The bull trout, listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, is well adapted to the cold waters of the Northwest. Recent changes in climate have caused winter flooding and warmer summer water temperatures in the region, reducing the cold-water habitats that bull trout depend on. The southernmost bull trout populations, found in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada, are currently restricted to small reserves where the coldest waters still exist. These shrinking habitats have created a severed environment being further split by dams, poor water quality, and invasive species. The goal of this project was to determine how these factors threaten the species regionally by using predictions of stream...
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The Oregon Water Science Center provided the scientific, bibliographic, and administrative support needed to prepare a Science Agenda for the Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC). The Science Agenda is the basis for guiding the science program of the NW CSC.
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The North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) involved federal, state, tribal, and university partners to implement a pilot study aimed at developing data and information exchange protocols and identifying analytical needs across a broad network of partners. The study was organized around a set of management questions identified by the NC CSC’s partners. Issues related to species, landscapes, and ecosystem connections were used to orient the study across various scales of decision-making. As part of the study, researchers prototyped the use of climate projections in ecosystem, habitat, and wildlife impact models, to inform resource management and planning decisions. Capabilities and constraints associated...
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Expansion of deadly, mosquito-borne bird diseases such as avian malaria into Hawaiʽi’s high elevation forests as a result of global warming is one of the most significant threats facing the state’s rare native forest birds. Few practical options for control of disease-carrying mosquitoes over large landscapes are available, however. The best hope for remaining species of native birds may be the development of tolerance or resistance to this introduced disease. Therefore, understanding how tolerance and resistance evolve and developing ways to speed this process may be good proactive strategies for addressing impacts of climate change. We evaluated ways to rapidly measure a bird’s natural immunity with the hope that...
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
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The loggerhead sea turtle, found in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, is divided into nine distinct populations—five of which are federally endangered and four of which are federally threatened. Unfortunately, climate change may be putting the species at further risk. Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency, and changes in temperature and humidity could reduce the suitability of habitat used by loggerheads and other endangered sea turtles for nesting and feeding. This project assessed the vulnerability of key sea turtle nesting beaches to climate change in the Southeast. Researchers examined previous records of sea turtle nesting locations in the Southeast to identify the characteristics of these beaches,...
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The Nature Conservancy - Great Lakes Program is leading the development of a scalable (Great Lakes wide, individual lake basin, to coastal reach within a lake basin) rule-based spatial model for ranking the relative importance of coastal lands and waters as habitat for migrating birds. Results will guide conservation actions including land acquisition, land and water management and restoration, and development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, the team will: 1) refine, create and integrate migratory bird stopover habitat models which depict the distribution of potential stopover sites along or near the shorelines of Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and, 2) develop an online portal that will deliver...
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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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Our goal was to predict road culvert passability, as defined by culvert outlet drop and outlet water velocity, for three fish swimming groups using remotely collected environmental variables that have been shown to influence the passability of road culverts.We generated four boosted regression tree models, one for road culvert outlet drop and one each for the three culvert outlet water velocities, and predicted the probability of impassable road culverts on low-order streams based on the models. Independent variables in the modelsincluded the upstream area draining to the culvert, slope at the culvert, stream segment gradient and stream reach gradient.Gradient of the stream segment was the most important predictor...
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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude,...
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The goal of this project was to develop a landscape dynamics model to project future trends in forest area, age class distribution, and forest type (cottonwood vs. non-cottonwood) for four remnant floodplain segments on the Missouri River and, for two river segments, project effects of forest changes on abundances of forest bird species. These four river segments have not been channelized or inundated by reservoirs and thus still retain some of the natural abiotic and biotic processes of the Missouri River as it existed before human alteration. Fluvial geomorphic processes on all four, however, were significantly altered by the construction of six dams on the main stem of the river in the mid twentieth century....


map background search result map search result map Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability Rangewide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout Assessment of Data Integration Capacity in the North Central Region The Vulnerability of Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Climate Change in the Southeast Development Support for the NW Climate Science Center Science Agenda An Adaptive Management Approach to Assessing Water as a Critical Habitat Need for Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproduction Evaluating the reproductive success of Arkansas River shiner by evaluating early life-history stage dispersal and survival at a landscape level On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation SERAP:  Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Report: Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Book Chapter 12: Conservation of Migratory Fishes in Freshwater Ecosystems Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Report: Regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change Report: Digital Conversion of Updated Wisconsin Wetland Inventory Dissertation: Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Projecting Long-term Landscape Change along the Missouri River: Implications for Cottonwood Forests and Songbird Populations Report The Vulnerability of Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Climate Change in the Southeast Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Evaluating the reproductive success of Arkansas River shiner by evaluating early life-history stage dispersal and survival at a landscape level An Adaptive Management Approach to Assessing Water as a Critical Habitat Need for Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproduction Report: Digital Conversion of Updated Wisconsin Wetland Inventory Development Support for the NW Climate Science Center Science Agenda Rangewide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout Dissertation: Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Assessment of Data Integration Capacity in the North Central Region SERAP:  Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts Projecting Long-term Landscape Change along the Missouri River: Implications for Cottonwood Forests and Songbird Populations Report On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Report: Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Book Chapter 12: Conservation of Migratory Fishes in Freshwater Ecosystems Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Report: Regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability