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Throughout the Pacific Northwest, invasive flora threaten river ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. Invasive plants harm water quality, occupy habitat for native species, reduce recreation opportunities, and damage infrastructure such as pumps and dams. Resource managers from federal, state, and local agencies, as well as local non-profits, spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on monitoring and exterminating invasive plants. Management costs and damages are likely to rise as climate change warms temperatures and reduces rainfall across the basin, expanding potential habitat for invasive plants and affecting the effectiveness of management. For some time, scientists have recognized the potential...
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As wildfire activity surges in the western U.S., managers are increasingly challenged by decisions surrounding managing post-fire environments.Changing fire regimes and warmer,drier post-fire conditions are increasing the likelihood of post-fire vegetation transitions, for example,from forest to grassland. Given the economic and ecological importance of these ecosystems, transformation is a concern for managers, policy-makers, and the public. As rapid environmental changes occur, management aimed at maintaining historical conditions will become increasingly untenable, requiring managers to make decisions that steward vegetation toward desired or novel conditions. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework provides...
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In the Pacific Northwest, coastal ecosystems are highly productive areas that support millions of migratory waterbirds, shellfish, salmon and related fish. These species depend on food and habitats provided by estuaries (coastal tidal areas where streams and rivers flow into the ocean) for successful migration and breeding. Climate change effects such as drought, sea-level rise, and changing freshwater flow, precipitation, and temperatures will alter these important habitats. This study examined how changing ocean and freshwater patterns and conditions will influence estuary habitats. The main goal was to provide scientific support for future planning efforts and conservation of natural resources found in coastal...
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The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. Every year only certain trees in certain groves accumulate clusters of thousands of monarch butterflies. Should trees die or important roosting branches collapse, monarchs may not return in the future. The overall goal of this project is to understand how the dual management goals of fire management...
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Managing natural resources is fraught with uncertainties around how complex social-ecological systems will respond to management actions and other forces, such as climate. Modeling tools have emerged to help grapple with different aspects of this challenge, but they are often used independently. The purpose of this project is to link two types of commonly-used simulation models (agent-based models and state-and-transition simulation models) and streamline the handling of model inputs and outputs. This innovation will provide researchers with the capability to simulate the interactions of wildlife, vegetation, management actions, and other drivers, and thus answer questions and inform decisions about how best to...
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands are important ecosystems in the western U.S. that provide numerous critical environmental, economic, and cultural benefits. For example, pinyon pines are a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and provide necessary habitat for plants and wildlife (including at risk species, such as the pinyon-jay). Despite their importance, stress put on pinyon-juniper woodlands by wildfires and other interacting effects of climate change are causing major population declines of these woodland trees. Such changes to pinyon-juniper woodlands lead to uncertainty for land managers on best practices for protecting these ecosystems from stand replacing fire (where most or all of...
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To support cultural resources and better understand the regional implications of climate change, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has found it critical to be directly engaged in research activities with the Federally recognized Tribes across the South Central United States. The South Central CASC Tribal Sustainability Science Manager will engage in scientific research that addresses Tribal needs for adaptive management and sustainability in the South-Central U.S. through an a extended network of connections to Tribal governments. This work is key to enhancing the Trust relationship of the Tribes with the Department of the Interior. This project will provide supplemental support for the...
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California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the upper watersheds of all the major rivers in Southern California. Yet human use, invasive species, droughts, fires, and now climate change are increasingly threatening the sensitive ecosystem. A major obstacle to the sustainability of montane forests in southern California is the absence of a coordinated strategic conservation...
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Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have helped grow the body of literature surrounding phenology. We now know, for example, that invasive species often show greater flexibility in the timing of their phenological events, enabling them to outcompete native species as climate and environmental conditions change. Natural resource managers recognize that changes in phenology...
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Sagebrush steppe ecosystems provide livelihoods for humans and essential habitats for wildlife, and thus management actions in these systems to promote wildlife persistence must strike a balance between human needs with those of wildlife. Across the western U.S., these landscapes have been heavily altered or lost through human activities, and climate change is expected to cause further changes in the quality and connections between habitat patches that could exacerbate declining populations of vulnerable wildlife species. To better manage these ecosystems under shifting conditions, researchers are examining how species use the mosaic of agricultural and intact sagebrush landscapes and how agricultural practices...
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Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but a changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these enhanced stressors requires that farmers, ranchers, and wildlife managers have the necessary information and resources to guide adaptive management decisions. Not only do they need better forecasts of drought severity, but also an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale. To provide these resources, this project proposes to document and map climate change vulnerability of major grasslands and wetlands on the southern Great Plains...
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High elevation red spruce forests are among the most iconic and visited natural communities in the High Alleghenies of the Central Appalachian Mountains. These ecosystems provide many services such as clean water and carbon sequestration, as well as habitat for species of high conservation concern, i.e., the eastern brook trout, the northern goshawk, and the northern flying squirrel. However, widespread logging and burning in the early 20th century significantly reduced the extent and integrity of red spruce forests. Replacement regeneration largely converted the region to northern hardwood forests. Recovery of red spruce forests has since been slowed by invasive pests and acidic atmospheric deposition, and the...
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Florida is home to 50 endangered species, 23 National Wildlife Refuges, 9 national parks, and 119 state parks. Straddling both temperate and sub-tropical zones, the state is also unique in that it is a long and narrow peninsula, surrounded on three sides by warm water, creating a dynamic environment. The impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and severe storms, threaten the state’s unique biodiversity—yet managers are unsure how species will respond to these changes, which makes planning for the future difficult. In order to identify the impacts of climate change on Florida’s plants and wildlife, researchers developed regional climate scenarios identifying how temperature and precipitation patterns...
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The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. As natural resource managers are tasked with maintaining and protecting species and ecosystems, options for minimizing the impacts of climate change are needed. One option for climate adaptation focuses on resistance, which seeks to preserve, as much as possible, the historical structure, composition, and function of an ecosystem in the face of changing climate conditions. One of the primary resistance strategies is to identify and conserve what are known as climate change refugia. These refugia represent areas that remain relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time and therefore enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological,...
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Marine shellfish are an important diet and cultural resource for many Alaskans. Harmful algal blooms can produce toxins which accumulate in shellfish and can cause disease and death in consumers. Climate change is predicted to expand the timing and strength of harmful algal blooms which may affect food security for many Alaska Native Tribes and communities. Predicting when the shellfish are safe to consume is a critical component of establishing food security and adapting to climate change. Local traditional knowledge from Tlingit elders indicates that herring spawning events, which typically occur in April or May in Southeast Alaska, provide a warning signal for when to stop harvesting shellfish. The environmental...
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Hawaiʻi’s native forests supply the state with freshwater, support cultural practices, and are home to more than 10,000 plants and animals found nowhere else in the world. However, they are also threatened by the spread of invasive species and may be vulnerable to shifting temperature and rainfall patterns brought about by climate change. Through this project, scientists sought to better understand how native and non-native forests in Hawaiʻi will respond to climate change. Researchers used field data from two long-term monitoring sites in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park to model the effects of projected climate change on two forest ecosystems, one dominated by the native ʻōhiʻa tree and the other by the invasive...
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Historical and projected climate data point toward significant changes in the future for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. These changes will include impacts to many species (like birds, fish, and mammals), ecosystems (like forests), and natural resources (like water) that humans appreciate and rely on. In order to prepare for these changes, land and resource managers need to be able to predict how species will respond, what specific mechanisms are driving these changes, and what thresholds wildlife species may soon be pushed across. Crossing these thresholds could lead to rapid change or decline in the health of a wildlife population. In response to this need, a team of researchers is working to identify the...
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Wetland plants are important to Wabanaki people in Maine and are central to Houlton Band of Maliseet Indian (HBMI) identity. HBMI peoples have harvested culturally important plants within the Meduxnekeag watershed for generations. Basket making and medicinal plant harvesting are forms of cultural preservation that are also important to Tribal economies. Projections for climate change in the northeastern U.S. include warmer temperatures and changes in the timing, amount, and intensity of precipitation. The hydrological consequences of projected changes will likely include increased temperatures,reduced winter ice cover on lakes and streams, earlier spring streamflow peaks, reduced summer streamflow, and increased...
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Each year, plants and animals undergo certain life cycle events, such as breeding or flowering. These phenological events are linked to weather and climate, and as temperature and precipitation patterns have changed, some spring events are occurring earlier. These changes in plant phenology can have cascading effects on wildlife such as elk, moose, and mule deer, which depend on plants for food. It’s thought that the quality of forage available in the spring could play a critical role for these big game species, which need to replenish energy depleted during the winter, in order to survive and successfully reproduce. Climate change will alter plant phenology, which in turn is likely to effect when, where, and for...
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Climate change adaptation research has made major advances over the last decade. For example, much is known about the impacts of climate change, many novel adaptation planning approaches have been developed, decision tools have become ubiquitous, and many novel adaptation options have been proposed. However, additional research is needed to demonstrate how these adaptation planning schemes can translate to implementation on the ground. The area in and around the Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks in Southern Sierra Nevada serve as ideal natural laboratories to study the impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of various on-the-ground forest treatments and restoration designs. Southern Sierra Nevada faces...
map background search result map search result map How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Understanding the Response of Native and Non‐Native Forests to Climate Variability and Change Linking Mule Deer Migration to Spring Green-Up in Wyoming Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds? Understanding the Impacts of Ecological Drought on Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest Improving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire Designing Climate-Resilient Habitat for At-Risk Species in the Southern Sierra Nevada Forest A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Combining Local Traditional Knowledge and Machine Learning to Predict the Future Safety of Alaskan Shellfish Harvests in a Changing Climate Informing Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Post-fire Vegetation Transitions Climate Adaptability and Ecological Connectivity of Wildlife Communities in Multi-Use Sagebrush-Steppe Landscapes Integrating Economics and Ecology to Inform Climate-Ready Aquatic Invasive Species Management for Vulnerable Pacific Northwest River Communities The Impact of Climate Change on Culturally Significant Wetland Plants and Their Habitat in the Meduxnekeag River Watershed in Maine Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Using the Virginia Northern Flying Squirrel to Guide Resilient Restoration of Red Spruce in the Central Appalachians Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast The Impact of Climate Change on Culturally Significant Wetland Plants and Their Habitat in the Meduxnekeag River Watershed in Maine Linking Mule Deer Migration to Spring Green-Up in Wyoming Understanding the Impacts of Ecological Drought on Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Integrating Economics and Ecology to Inform Climate-Ready Aquatic Invasive Species Management for Vulnerable Pacific Northwest River Communities Understanding the Response of Native and Non‐Native Forests to Climate Variability and Change Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast Climate Adaptability and Ecological Connectivity of Wildlife Communities in Multi-Use Sagebrush-Steppe Landscapes A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Designing Climate-Resilient Habitat for At-Risk Species in the Southern Sierra Nevada Forest Using the Virginia Northern Flying Squirrel to Guide Resilient Restoration of Red Spruce in the Central Appalachians Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Informing Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Post-fire Vegetation Transitions Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds? Combining Local Traditional Knowledge and Machine Learning to Predict the Future Safety of Alaskan Shellfish Harvests in a Changing Climate Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning