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In this proposal we investigate how tree selection at the local scale affects biodiversity and ecosystem services (Obj. 1). We then look regionally to determine the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests (Obj. 2). We will leverage ongoing investigations of heat-related stress and pest outbreaks in urban and rural forests to develop management recommendations for both systems. These ongoing projects provide a knowledge-base, infrastructure (e.g. study sites), equipment (e.g. Li-Cor Photosynthesis System), and outreach opportunities that will extend the impact of this project (see Synergistic and Future Funding section below). We will also convene a working group...
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In the Southeastern U.S., “insular ecosystems” may be particularly vulnerable to ecological effects from climate change. These insular ecosystems share a few key biogeographic characteristics: (1) occurrences that are spatially discrete, (2) relatively small geographic footprints, and (3) with steep ecological and environmental gradients at their boundaries. Examples include rock outcrop ecosystems (e.g. Piedmont granite outcrops, Appalachian high-elevation outcrops), grasslands (high-elevation balds, xeric limestone prairies), isolated wetlands (Carolina bays, karst depression wetlands) and riparian riverscour systems. Such insular ecosystems tend to support concentrations of endemic and disjunct species; thus...
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Recent estimates of the magnitude of species’ range shifts, extinctions, and changes in ecosystem processes resulting from climatic change are alarming. Estimates of extinction rates and population losses attributable to climatic change are often based on studies of modeled biogeographic distributions, which rely on simple relationships between present-day distributions of species and climate variables to estimate distributions of species under future climate. Hundreds of papers using distribution models - based almost exclusively on relationships between plants and climate - have been published. The predictions of these models undergird conservation plans, are used to forecast the magnitude of future extinctions,...
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Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to be changing at a slower rate than other parts of North America. However, land use change associated with urbanization is having a significant effect on wildlife populations and habitat availability. We sought to understand the effect of global warming on both beneficial and pest insects of trees. We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming as many cities have already warmed as much, due to heat island effects, as they are expected to warm due to climate change by 2050 or even 2100. We were able to develop good predictive models of how warming influences beneficial and pest insects for cities in the Southeast and across the east coast more generally. We were...
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Habitat fragmentation occurs when loss of habitat (e.g. to land use changes or human development) divides large or connected habitat areas into smaller, more isolated areas. This process is recognized as one of the most pressing conservation issues in the Southeastern U.S. Habitat loss and fragmentation reduces the amount of suitable habitat available to wildlife species, divides wildlife populations and reduces genetic diversity, and interrupts important migration patterns; and climate change is likely to disrupt habitat areas even more. Maintaining connectivity between habitats and wildlife populations will be a key management strategy for conserving biodiversity in the region into the future. Previous work by...
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This shapefile contains polygons representing the current range of twelve ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and the Caribbean. These were the focal ecosystems for the research project. The polygons were created by digitizing a representative area that contained each ecosystem's extent, as defined from GAP land cover or NatureServe's National Map land cover data.
    map background search result map search result map Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change Climate-sensitive, Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S.: The State of the Science and a Case Study of Limestone Cedar Glades in the Central Basin of Tennessee Focal Ecosystems Forests of the Future: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Ecosystem Diversity Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Turning the Science of Connectivity into Action: Finding Model Consistency and Identifying Priority Habitats for Conservation Forests of the Future: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Ecosystem Diversity Climate-sensitive, Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S.: The State of the Science and a Case Study of Limestone Cedar Glades in the Central Basin of Tennessee Turning the Science of Connectivity into Action: Finding Model Consistency and Identifying Priority Habitats for Conservation Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Focal Ecosystems Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change