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In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere...
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Ongoing and future climate change throughout Alaska has the potential to affect terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide to the people of Alaska and the nation. These services include the gathering of food and fiber by Alaskan communities, the importance of ecosystems to recreation, cultural, and spiritual activities of people in Alaska, and the way that land cover and vegetation in ecosystems affect temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding etc.) throughout the state. Assessments of the effects of climate change on these “ecosystem services” have been hindered by a lack of tools (e.g. computer models) capable of forecasting future landscapes in a changing climate while taking into account numerous...
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The western coastline of Alaska is highly susceptible to coastal storms, which can cause erosion, flooding, and saltwater storm surge, affecting natural ecosystems, human communities, and commercial activity. Historically, a large buffer of ice along the shoreline has protected this region from some of the more severe effects of coastal storms. However, climate change may not only increase the frequency and intensity of storms, but also cause a loss of shoreline ice, possibly increasing the incidence of coastal erosion and flooding and introducing saltwater to freshwater environments. These hazards have the potential to substantially disrupt the environment and commerce in the region, but more information is needed...
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Migratory birds are important for recreation and tourism, contributing to a vibrant birdwatching industry in Alaska. Every spring, hundreds of birds migrate to their summer breeding grounds in Alaska and northern Canada. Their arrival is timed with the height of the spring green-up of plants, which provide the food necessary for birds to reproduce and raise their young. However, over the last fifty years, warming temperatures in Alaska as a result of climate change have prompted an earlier transition from winter to spring. The purpose of this project was to examine whether there have been changes in the timing of spring green-up in recent years (1985-2009) and, if so, whether migratory birds are adapting their migration...
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Water is a key resource in Alaska: Although it comprises 17 percent of the country’s land area, Alaska contains more than 40 percent of the United States’ surface water. Climate changes are anticipated to greatly impact water processes (hydrology), including water temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns and amounts. Understanding the likely impacts of climate change on hydrology is an important first step toward understanding consequent impacts on natural and human communities. The purpose of this project was to assist with the development of a coordinated state-wide approach for monitoring temperature in streams and lakes. This process was guided by the recommendations of a workshop involving hydrologists,...
    map background search result map search result map Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change Modeling Western Alaska Coastal Hazards Monitoring Alaska Stream and Lake Temperatures to Understand Future Conditions Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Modeling Western Alaska Coastal Hazards Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Monitoring Alaska Stream and Lake Temperatures to Understand Future Conditions Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change