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Changing climate conditions can make water management planning and drought preparedness decisions more complicated than ever before. Resource managers can no longer rely solely on historical data and trends to base their actions, and are in need of science that is relevant to their specific needs and can directly inform important planning decisions. Questions remain, however, regarding the most effective and efficient methods for extending scientific knowledge and products into management and decision-making. This study analyzed two unique cases of water management to better understand how science can be translated into resource management actions and decision-making. In particular, this project sought to understand...
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The northwestern United States (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana) are experiencing increasing air temperatures, declines in snowpack, altered hydrology, and more frequent and severe wildfire, drought, and insect and disease outbreaks as a result of climate change. These factors, alone and in combination with existing non-climate stressors, present a significant challenge to the natural and cultural resources of the region as well as to the managers tasked with their protection. While adaptation strategies and actions offer a path forward in the face of climate change, resource management decision-making is complicated by the multitude of adaptation options that have already been identified for the...
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Ecosystems respond to disturbances (such as wildfire) and changing climate in a variety of ways, including persistence, recovery, and reorganization into new combinations. Some species respond by migrating across the landscape over time, which allows them to keep up with changing climate. Many forests recover after wildfire by regenerating from seeds, and public land managers often assist these processes to help ecosystems recover. However, the success of all of these strategies depends on young plants (seedlings and saplings) surviving, often when exposed to harsh conditions following fires, including prolonged droughts, heat waves, and rising temperatures. In this project, researchers will study how well young...
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Drought is one of the biggest threats facing our forests today. In the western U.S., severe drought and rising temperatures have caused increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks. Forests are changing rapidly, and while land managers are working to develop long-term climate change adaptation plans, they require tools that can enhance forest resistance to drought now. To address this immediate need, researchers are examining whether a common forest management tool, prescribed fire, can be implemented to help forests better survive drought. Prescribed fire is commonly used in the western U.S. to remove potential wildfire fuel, such as small trees and shrubs. It is also thought that this act of selectively...
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There is a growing realization that current warming trends may be associated with increases in the size, frequency, and severity of forest fires in the West. While rising temperatures can create drought conditions that favor severe fires, it is also possible that drought limits the ability of trees to survive a fire. During a drought, there is less water available for trees and more outbreaks of harmful insects and pathogens can occur, both of which can weaken trees. Tree mortality is one means of measuring the severity of a fire, and evidence shows that trees exposed to drought conditions for periods of 5-10 years are already more sensitive to the effects of fire – suggesting that drought could indeed increase...
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The need to improve fire weather predictions for the southern Great Plains has grown in recent years, following a number of extreme fire events. While on-the-ground conditions that promote fire development in the region are still not well understood, research suggests that fire-friendly conditions are determined by more than just precipitation amounts or wind speeds. They are also influenced by soil characteristics such as moisture content, temperature, and human use. Therefore, fire weather forecast predictions could be improved by developing a better understanding of the relationship between soil characteristics and fire occurrence. With a hotter and drier future unfolding in the southern Great Plains, the time...
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In the southwestern United States, droughts of 10 or more years are projected to become more frequent by 2100. It also is projected that there will be fewer wet days per year, with more precipitation falling on those wet days. Such climatic extremes can strongly affect wild animals and plants, ecosystems, and humans. In the Southwest, more frequent and intense storms may negatively affect protected species in coastal salt marshes; changes in the timing and amount of precipitation could lead to increases in fuel loads; and increasingly humid heat waves could lead to higher incidence of heat-related illness among visitors to national parks. This project will improve understanding of climate extremes and their potential...
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Warmer temperatures and less precipitation in the western U.S. related to climate change are harming many important natural resources, including forests, rivers, and many fish and wildlife species. Climate refugia provide a potential opportunity for conserving resources and biodiversity in the face of climate change. These refugia are places where the climate will likely change less than the surrounding landscape and/or places in a landscape where species may move to find more suitable climates. For example, because climate change may alter the frequency, duration, or severity of droughts, small habitats that naturally retain water (drought refugia) may become increasingly important to many natural wildlife communities....
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Plants and animals undergo certain life cycle events every year, such as breeding or flowering. Known as phenology, these events are very sensitive to changes in climate. Changes in plant phenology can have cascading effects that impact the herbivore species that depend on the affected plants for food, such as elk, moose, and deer. Therefore, characterizing long term vegetation cycles can provide critical insight into how the behavior and health of a number of species may be altered due to climate change. This project sought to identify how drought conditions influence vegetation phenology, in order to better understand the potential effects on herbivores. Specifically, researchers examined (1) if drought causes...
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Native to the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico, the desert bighorn sheep is known for its ability to adapt to harsh, arid environments. However, this does not mean the species is immune to the effects of drought. In fact, the fragmented and isolated distribution of the desert mountain ranges that they inhabit means that they can’t follow distant rain storms without traversing broad valleys at significant risk to mortality. This study examined the effects of a 2002 drought on desert bighorn sheep in the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Arizona. Specifically, researchers explored how the drought may have affected habitat selection, behavior, and diet of the sheep. For example, when...
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Aspen forests are considered keystone ecosystems, meaning that loss of aspen habitat would result in negative impacts to numerous plant and animal species. Aspen also provide important economic and social benefits, including drawing tourists, serving as potential fire breaks, improving local economies, and providing forage for wildlife and livestock. Ecologically-valuable aspen forests are considered at risk in many areas of the western U.S., but especially in lower-elevation areas. Risks to aspen include climate-change and past land use. The effects of drought and browsing animals (that eat young aspen) are often more severe for lower-elevation aspen and can threaten aspen forest health and long-term persistence....
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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project aimed to improve our understanding of drought in the North Central region and determine what future droughts might look like over the 21st century, as climate conditions change. Researchers evaluated, with the intent to improve, available and emerging data on climate conditions that influence drought (such as changes in temperature, precipitation, evaporative demand, snow and soil moisture), as well as datasets related to the surface...
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In the Pacific Northwest, cold-water species like salmon are important for recreational sport fishing as well as for commercial fish production. However, climate change is causing lower and warmer summer stream flows that could decimate these fish populations. Aquatic cold-water habitats are further threatened by stormwater runoff, which moves from streets to storm drains and then is often discharged into cold-water rivers and streams. The urban heat island effect (when cities and urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas) may heat the temperature of the runoff and if the runoff is very warm, it could tip salmon habitat into fatal conditions. However, specifically how urban warming – or cooling, such...
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On Hawai‘i’s mountains, cloud droplets, propelled by strong winds, are deposited on plants, where they accumulate and drip to the ground, adding water over and above that supplied by rainfall. Prior studies show that the amount of intercepted cloud water is substantial, and variable from place to place. Estimates of the spatial patterns of cloud water interception (CWI), the fog-related effects on plants, and the contributions of fog to groundwater recharge and surface water flows are needed to better understand the water cycle and predict effects of climate change on water supply and ecosystems. We will make measurements of fog, wind, fog interception, soil moisture, and fog effects on plant water use and plant...
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Forests west of the Cascade Crest in Oregon and Washington have been shaped by infrequent but severe wildfires that historically occurred at intervals spanning several centuries. Since the mid-1900s, relatively few fires have occurred in the region, resulting in a general lack of understanding of the drivers of these fires, the impacts on ecosystems, and possible management responses. Most of the current regional understanding of fire regimes and impacts instead comes from the drier, interior forests. However, recent fire events between 2014 and 2018 (e.g., the Norse Peak Fire in Washington) have raised concern among land managers in the Pacific Northwest about fire risk in a warming climate. This project will...
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Droughts in the Hawaiian Islands can enhance wildfire risk, diminish freshwater resources, and devastate threatened and endangered species on land and in nearshore ecosystems. During periods of drought, cloud-water interception, or fog drip (the process by which water droplets accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants and then drip to the ground) in Hawai‘i’s rain forests may play an important role in providing moisture for plants, reducing wildfire risk within the fog zone, and contributing to groundwater recharge (the process by which water moves downward from the surface through the ground to the groundwater table) that sustains water flow in streams during dry periods. Estimates of the changes in water...
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The Wind River Indian Reservation in west-central Wyoming is home to the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes, who reside near and depend on water from the streams that feed into the Wind River. In recent years, however, the region has experienced frequent severe droughts, which have impacted tribal livelihoods and cultural activities. Scientists with the North Central Climate Science Center at Colorado State University, the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and several other university and agency partners are working closely with tribal water managers to assess how drought affects the reservation, integrating social, ecological, and hydro-climatological sciences...
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Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations...
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Climate Change is making our environment unpredictable. Increased persistence of drought is causing deaths of plants and animals across our landscapes. However, drought amongst the western United States is not a new thing. Native American populations have been living with drought since time immemorial and practiced culturally prescribed fire practices to foster the landscape for an environment that provides resources for tribal livelihoods and traditional practices (Marks-Block et al. 2019). The United States Geologic Survey and the Yurok Tribe are partnering to study the effects of prescribed burns actively occurring in Yurok Ancestral Territory. Prescribed burns promote a healthy ecosystem through positively...
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The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. It is daunting for resource managers to determine how to use increasingly limited staff time and funding to conserve species and ecosystems. The Refugia Research Coalition is a national framework that brings together researchers and managers to identify and develop conservation strategies for “climate change refugia”, areas that remain relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time and enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. Expanding on previous work carried out in the Northwest and Northeast regions, this project will produce a list of priority species and habitats, generated by local and regional...
map background search result map search result map The Effects of Drought on Desert Bighorn Sheep Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Improving Understanding of Climate Extremes in the Southwestern United States Foundational Science Area: Developing Climate Change Understanding and Resources for Adaptation in the North Central U.S. The Effects of Drought on Vegetation Phenology and Wildlife The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Understanding the Relationship Between Urban Trees, Stormwater Runoff, and Cold-Water Streams in a Changing Climate Identifying and Evaluating Refugia from Drought and Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i Identifying Characteristics of Actionable Science for Drought Planning and Adaptation A Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest Forest Fires in Western Cascadia: Evaluating Drivers and Impacts to Inform Climate-Adaptive Management Responses Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Culturally Prescribed Fires as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands How Do Critical Life History Stages Limit Plant Adaptation to Changing Climate? The Role of Seedling and Sapling Survivorship in Ecosystem Resilience Understanding the Relationship Between Urban Trees, Stormwater Runoff, and Cold-Water Streams in a Changing Climate Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Culturally Prescribed Fires as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands The Effects of Drought on Desert Bighorn Sheep The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes The Effects of Drought on Vegetation Phenology and Wildlife State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions Forest Fires in Western Cascadia: Evaluating Drivers and Impacts to Inform Climate-Adaptive Management Responses How Do Critical Life History Stages Limit Plant Adaptation to Changing Climate? The Role of Seedling and Sapling Survivorship in Ecosystem Resilience "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Identifying and Evaluating Refugia from Drought and Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Improving Understanding of Climate Extremes in the Southwestern United States A Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science Foundational Science Area: Developing Climate Change Understanding and Resources for Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Identifying Characteristics of Actionable Science for Drought Planning and Adaptation