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Better understanding of the overall fishery production in river systems around the world may influence general development policies and practices for aquatic systems and sustainable maintenance of an important protein source (particularly for poorer countries where fish are relatively readily available to the local human population). With this study, researchers worked to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the overall fishery production in river networks globally using multivariate statistical models with explanatory variables compiled from remotely sensed and inā€situ observations. The freshwater fish production in rivers was estimated by: 1. Developing models using key drivers (temperature, precipitation,...
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Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation threaten the persistence of the Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. This subspecies appears to be more vulnerable to drought than more northern subspecies, because it occupies small and fragmented streams which are at greater risk of drying up during drought. Most notably, in 2002 drought in the Southwest resulted in the loss of 14 different Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations – about 10% of the total population. While it is known that drought is having an effect on Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the specific ways in which individuals and populations are affected by drought...
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As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of droughts in North America are expected to increase, leading to a wide range of social and ecological impacts. Identifying these impacts and the consequences for ecosystems and human communities are essential for effective drought management. Equally important is to improve the capacity of nature and people to prepare for and cope with drought by identifying management strategies that benefit both. An interdisciplinary working group within the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) was established by the U.S. Geological Survey, The Wildlife Conservation Society, and The Nature Conservancy to synthesize our current understanding of...
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Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on fish have mostly ignored lakes, and focused instead on streams. Because surface waters represent a network of habitats, an integrated assessment of stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for decision-making. This work can be used to inform the preservation of lake/stream...
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Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from...
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Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration of future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape-scale changes from urbanization, and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages...
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Under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) must evaluate the status of at-risk plants and animals in the U.S. A Species Status Assessment (SSA) is a scientific assessment prepared for each at-risk species to help inform a range of management decisions under the Endangered Species Act. SSA’s are currently needed for more than 350 species, 250 of which are in the Southeast region alone. These species are threatened by several stressors including urbanization, loss of habitat, changes in streamflow and water quality, climate variability, and climate change. As part of the SSA process, teams must identify and assess risks to species or their habitat from changing climate, hydrology,...
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Barrier islands are exposed to a range of natural and human-caused changes, including hurricanes, sea-level rise, and dredging. These changes have the potential to influence the ability of barrier islands to serve as a first-line of defense for the mainland during storm events. Gulf Islands National Seashore, a National Park Service unit in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Mississippi, is predominantly comprised of barrier islands and faces immediate challenges, including erosion that washes out roads and sand dunes and the adverse impacts on cultural and natural resources from exposure to saltwater. Managers require realistic estimates of both the vulnerability of the park’s natural and cultural...
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The mission of the US Geological Survey’s National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC) is to provide managers, policy-makers, and other stakeholders with information and decision-making tools to respond to effects of climate change on natural resources. In support of this goal, the NCASC wishes to support an exceptional mentoring experience for graduate students from select partner institutions in developing policy-relevant products related to managing climate change impacts on fish, wildlife, and/or ecosystems. For many graduate students conducting research on the impacts of climate change on natural resources, disseminating results of their research to managers, policy-makers, and/or other stakeholders is...
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Migratory birds may be hit especially hard by climate change – particularly waterbirds that depend on wetlands as resting and feeding sites during their journey between breeding and non-breeding grounds. California’s Central Valley and the interior basins of southeastern Oregon and northeastern California provide some of the most critical wetlands resources to migratory waterbirds in the western U.S. However, these wetlands rely heavily on snow pack and precipitation for water supply, both of which have already decreased due to climate change. Of further concern is the fact that drought conditions resulting from climate change could exacerbate existing water allocation issues in the region. Researchers are examining...
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Severe droughts cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the globe—even in areas with cooler climates. Mitigating the negative effects of climate change, in particular increased drought frequency and severity, poses a major challenge to forest managers. Managers are searching for strategies that minimize the negative effects of drought on forests (i.e. increase their resistance to drought) and maximize the ability of forests to recover after a drought (i.e. improve their resilience). Evidence suggests that forests with certain combinations of tree species, sizes, and stem densities are better able to withstand and recover from drought. The goal of this study was to identify which...
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In the Northeastern U.S., climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, less rain is predicted to fall in between these extreme events and air temperatures are also expected to rise. This combination of conditions will likely expose the Northeast to both floods and droughts that will have significant ecological, social, and economic implications for the region. Infrastructure damage from extreme storm events, increased competition for water supplies during droughts, and the potential loss of wildlife and habitats are some of the various challenges facing resource managers and decision makers. Management actions that mitigate the damage from extreme floods and droughts...
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Barrier islands protect mainland areas from storm surge, but can erode over time and require restoration. Ship Island, a barrier island off the coast of Mississippi, provides an example of this: the island was battered by Hurricane Camille in 1969 and split into two separate islands. As part of the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plans to use approximately 22 million cubic yards of sand to close the gap between East and West Ship Islands. This will restore both the island’s physical integrity and habitat for important species such as sea turtles, shorebirds, and Gulf sturgeon. This project served as a case study to test the usefulness of structured decision-making – a...
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The purpose of the project was to conduct an extensive search for completed and ongoing research that deals with climate change and agriculture in the context of water quality, for the Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC. The search to acquire this information was two-fold. One portion of the search dealt with an online literature search for published peer-reviewed articles for the period of approximately 2000 to present. The second portion of the search dealt with contacting US Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers and state institutions to request information on current research projects dealing with this topic that...
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The Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative (CLCC) Steering Committee (SC) recently made two landmark decisions providing direction for collaborative conservation efforts. The SC agreed to pursue landscape conservation design (LCD) as a major emphasis of collaborative work and they agreed to adopt a values-focused, structured decision-making (SDM) process to guide conservation design development and implementation for the CLCC. Developing both a strategic plan and an implementation approach using a values focused LCD framework was expected to have several advantages. This effort aimed to complement existing conservation efforts in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands conducted by federal, state, and NGO...
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Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity. Most efforts to assess the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity try to rank species based on their vulnerability under changed environmental conditions. These efforts have generally not considered the ability of organisms to adjust their phenotype to the changing environment. Organisms can do this by one of two ways. First, they can adjust their phenotype via non-evolutionary pathways. Second, they can undergo adaptive evolutionary change. We used two interconnected approaches to evaluate thermal adaptation capacity in a cold-water fish species. 1) Using tagging data, we estimated thermal performance curves for wild fish. The curves indicate...
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The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. As natural resource managers are tasked with maintaining and protecting species and ecosystems, options for minimizing the impacts of climate change are needed. One option for climate adaptation focuses on resistance, which seeks to preserve, as much as possible, the historical structure, composition, and function of an ecosystem in the face of changing climate conditions. One of the primary resistance strategies is to identify and conserve what are known as climate change refugia. These refugia represent areas that remain relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time and therefore enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological,...
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Walleye, a socially and economically important sportfish across much of North America, are experiencing population declines in many lakes throughout their range. Studies suggest that multiple factors – potentially linked to climate change – are contributing to the decline of walleye, including changes in lake temperatures, loss of habitat, increasing water clarity (perhaps due to drought), and interactions with other fish. This research seeks to identify the mechanisms that underlie declining walleye populations, particularly the low survival rate of young walleye. Data will be collected through a whole-lake experiment, an analysis of long-term data from lakes in northern Wisconsin, and simulation modeling. Members...
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Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of drought in the U.S., leading to potentially harmful ecological impacts. The uncertain and relatively rapid changes to precipitation patterns pose a significant challenge to managers and decision-makers. In addition to having negative social and economic implications, long periods without rainfall can alter ecosystems, thereby threatening fish and wildlife species. The term “ecological drought” emphasizes the environmental consequences of future droughts. While it is known that ecological drought places multiple stresses on the environment, many of the specific impacts are not fully understood. To address this need, researchers are working to...
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Historical and projected climate data point toward significant changes in the future for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. These changes will include impacts to many species (like birds, fish, and mammals), ecosystems (like forests), and natural resources (like water) that humans appreciate and rely on. In order to prepare for these changes, land and resource managers need to be able to predict how species will respond, what specific mechanisms are driving these changes, and what thresholds wildlife species may soon be pushed across. Crossing these thresholds could lead to rapid change or decline in the health of a wildlife population. In response to this need, a team of researchers is working to identify the...


map background search result map search result map Science to Examine the Interactions Between Climate, Agriculture, and Water Quality Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Structured Decision-Making as a Tool for Coastal Restoration: A Case Study on Ship Island, Mississippi Informing the Identification of High-Priority Lands for the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge Considering Future Climate and Urbanization Can Wildlife Species Evolve in Response to a Changing Climate? Informing Species Vulnerability Assessments An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in Key Conservation Regions of the Western U.S. The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Supporting Strategic Landscape Conservation Decisions in the U.S. Caribbean Global Assessment of River Fish Production and Potential Global Change Implications Science to Action Fellowship: Supporting Graduate Students to Apply Science to Decision Making and Adaptation Understanding the Ecological Impacts of Drought Across the U.S.: Regional Workshops and National Synthesis Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature Safe Operating Space for Walleye: Understanding the Conditions Needed to Sustain Recreational Fisheries in a Changing World Slowing the Flow for Climate Resilience: Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Flood and Drought Events Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds? Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Structured Decision-Making as a Tool for Coastal Restoration: A Case Study on Ship Island, Mississippi Informing the Identification of High-Priority Lands for the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge Considering Future Climate and Urbanization The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Safe Operating Space for Walleye: Understanding the Conditions Needed to Sustain Recreational Fisheries in a Changing World Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in Key Conservation Regions of the Western U.S. Supporting Strategic Landscape Conservation Decisions in the U.S. Caribbean Slowing the Flow for Climate Resilience: Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Flood and Drought Events An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change Can Wildlife Species Evolve in Response to a Changing Climate? Informing Species Vulnerability Assessments Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds? Science to Examine the Interactions Between Climate, Agriculture, and Water Quality Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature Understanding the Ecological Impacts of Drought Across the U.S.: Regional Workshops and National Synthesis Science to Action Fellowship: Supporting Graduate Students to Apply Science to Decision Making and Adaptation Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning Global Assessment of River Fish Production and Potential Global Change Implications