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This project developed a soil vulnerability index and map indicating where forest cover will be most affected by climate change. Using this map, researchers developed a greater understanding of potential changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes under future climate conditions. They then evaluated how this information could be used to improve vegetation models across the landscape. They compared the results of different modeling approaches to the soil vulnerability map, synthesized the state of knowledge and uncertainty, and introduced management implications for action.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, AK, AK, AK, AK, All tags...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to...
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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
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The Wildlife Conservation Society will assess the climate change vulnerability of bird species that regularly breed in substantial populations in Alaska using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Initial work will focus on breeding birds in Arctic Alaska including shorebirds, waterfowl and waterbird species (loons, gulls, terns, jaegers), and land bird species (passerines, raptors, ptarmigan).
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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There are many challenges in detecting precipitation trends in Alaska. The most substantial are the small number of observations, inhomogeneities, differences among gridded data sets, and differentiating between long-term trends and decadal variability. Analyzing both station and regional products will increase our understanding of where local trends in precipitation may differ significantly from regional trends, providing key information for developing better downscaled climate projections. These in turn, will provide insight into fine scale heterogeneity in climate change that may be important in determining the stability of key habitat features, such as wetlands and insect avoidance areas. As a by-product of...
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The Beaufort Sea coast in Arctic Alaska and neighboring northern Canada has recently experienced extreme and accelerated climate change, including a dramatic reduction in summer sea ice. Human systems will likely be impacted through changes to oil industry and community infrastructure currently in place along parts of the coast, to habitat availability for harvested species such as caribou, waterbirds, and anadromous fish, to culturally important landscape elements, and to both recreational and subsistence coastal access. We used literature review and structured interviews to 1) identify current, broad interests for ongoing coastal research in the arctic, 2) identify the best mechanisms and format for communicating...
This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
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This project obtained information regarding past catastrophic events, such as tsunamis, and TEK through oral history interviews with Tolowa elders regarding the effects of climate change and tsunamis on traditional smelt fishing camps; generated a GIS model of coastal inundation due to sea level rise and overlaid that with known archaeological and ethnographic resources; generated a final report with detailed information of past tsunami events, and modeled the potential effects of climate change and sea level rise on archaeological and ethnographic Tolowa sites using TEK and GIS based upon the results of this study.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CA-2, CA-2, California, California, All tags...
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This project applied sea-level rise (SLR) modeling approaches along the Pacific coast tidal gradient at a parcel scale through improved data collection tools and collaboration relevant to land managers. At selected salt marsh parcels in both the North Pacific and California LCCs, data collection techniques were employed to assess detailed baseline habitat elevations; tidal ranges, microclimate, and extreme weather events; sediment supply sources; vegetation community composition; and vertebrate population indices. The design provides resource managers with information on the value of different datasets and methods including their uncertainty, as well as determines their usefulness in climate change adaptation planning...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Alaska, British Columbia, CA-2, All tags...
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Building on currently available resources and on the prior climate adaptation experiences of our team,which includes tribal staff and a cultural anthropologist who is also an enrolled member of theConfederated Tribes of Siletz Indians, we will co-develop a guidebook for tribal adaptation. Thisguidebook will bring a tribal focus to adaptation planning and building resilience, in the context ofexisting tribal priorities, and will include traditional and local knowledge as well as western scientificresources and tools. Under the direction of an advisory group, the guidebook will be road-tested withseveral tribes, two of which have already been identified, and then revised at least once before beingreleased.
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FY2014Although the future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which suffer from a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat change. Our goal is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain...
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This project will apply the results of an on-going climate change vulnerability assessment to the management of two complex landscapes. The vulnerability assessment project team will work with mangers, land-owners, and conservation practitioners to explore 1) how downscaled climate datasets, modeled vegetation changes, and information on estimated species sensitivities can be used to develop climate change adaptation strategies, and 2) how model results and datasets can be made more useful for informing the management of species and landscapes. To accomplish these two goals, we will prepare datasets and model outputs for two landscapespotentially, the Pioneer Mountains-Craters of the Moon region in Idaho and the...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Climate Change, Columbia Basin, Columbia Plateau, Connectivity, Conservation Plan/Design/Framework, All tags...
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FY2013This project retrieves four years of data from over 200 temperature sensors nested within 28 sites across ~40 million hectares of the hydrographic Great Basin. The sensors span all major aspects and up to 700 m of elevation within sites, and occur in numerous management jurisdictions in 18 mountain ranges plus other areas not in ranges. This project: Quantifies the variability of climate at micro-, meso-, and macroscales across the Basin, and across diel, seasonal, and interannual periods. Informs management and conservation efforts, in terms of helping calibrate and refine the climatic stage upon which all biological actors and efforts hinge (Beier and Brost 2010). Feeds into other bioclimatic and wildlife...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, 2014, Academics & scientific researchers, California, California, All tags...
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This project evaluated the potential impacts of storm surges and relative sea level rise on nesting geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). Habitat suitability maps for breeding waterbirds were developed to identify current waterbird breeding habitat and distributions. Short-term climate change impacts were assessed by comparing nest densities in relation to magnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000-2013. Additionally, nest densities were modeled using random forests in relation to the time-integrated flood index (e.g., a storm specific measure accounting for both water depth and duration of flooding) for four modeled storms (2005, 2006, 2009, and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: DELTAS, DELTAS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, Decision Support, All tags...
Western Alaska is one of the fastest warming regions on the globe and recent trends are expected to continue into the next century, likely having substantial effects on the aquatic resources of this region. While increased air temperatures will have direct effects on water temperatures, indirect effects due to changes in precipitation, groundwater characteristics, and flow regimes may have much larger effects on aquatic ecosystems. Coastal watersheds of Western Alaska are expected to receive 25-50% more snow and 18-25% more rain in the next century. Future “climate warming” may actually cool some streams if the ratio of snow to rain increases for coastal watersheds, while rain-dominated streams are likely to become...
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The Shivwits Band of the Paiute Indian Tribe of Utah (PITU) has recognized the need to identify and assess the potential impacts of landscape-level stressors, such as climate change and drought, on tribal and ancestral lands and resources, such as water resources and culturally significant species and the habitats and ecosystems that support them. With funding from the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative, the Shivwits hired Barbara Dugelby1 of Round River Conservation Studies to conduct the assessment and prepare this report. The results of this report and the assessment will be integrated into the overall landscape level assessment of SRLCC priorities. This report presents a summary of the findings...
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Arey Lagoon and Island, situated on the Beaufort Sea coast just west of Barter Island and within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), was selected as a focus site for an in-depth study of coastal processes on a regional to local scale. Arey Lagoon and adjacent areas encompass a barrier island chain, a glacially fed river and delta (Hulahula and Ogpilak Rivers) from the Brooks Range watershed, low-lying tundra with coastal wet sedge, and thermokarst lakes that all may be vulnerable to the effects of changing storm patterns in response to climate change.Analysis of historical maps and imagery showed that Arey Lagoon mainland coast, partially protected by Arey Island from the direct attack of ocean waves, was...
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The project will establish contact with interested parties in each tribe or first nation within the Crown of the Continent to collect information on all relevant activities and research regarding climate and adaptive management within each tribal nation. We will coordinate a meeting of all interested tribal contacts and coordinate tribal activities with other efforts in the Crown including the Crown Managers Partnership, the Crown of the Continent Conservation Initiative, and the Crown Roundtable Adaptive Management Initiative.Objectives:Establish a contact on climate adaptation management in each interested first nation/tribe or related organization in the Crown of the Continent.Develop a white paper that summarizes...


map background search result map search result map Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation: Case Studies in the Great Northern LCC Characterization of Montane Ecosystems, Their Microclimates, and Wildlife Distribution and Abundance Across the Hydrographic Great Basin Using TEK to model the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal cultural resources at Tolowa Dunes State Park, Del Norte County, California Connecting Tribal and First Nation Adaptive Management and Climate Related Activities in the Crown of the Continent Shivwits Paiute Cultural Values and Important Natural Resources at Risk from Landscape Level Stressors Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Developing resilience to natural and cultural dimensions of climate change: Tribal perspectives and applications
the transboundary Cascadia landscape, and assessing contribution of eDNA to monitoring
priority species Modeling Barrier Island Lagoon System Response to Projected Arctic Warming Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Watershed control of hydrologic sources and thermal conditions in SW Alaska streams: a framework for forecasting effects of changing climate Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Developing resilience to natural and cultural dimensions of climate change: Tribal perspectives and applications
the transboundary Cascadia landscape, and assessing contribution of eDNA to monitoring
priority species Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling Modeling Barrier Island Lagoon System Response to Projected Arctic Warming Using TEK to model the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal cultural resources at Tolowa Dunes State Park, Del Norte County, California Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation: Case Studies in the Great Northern LCC Connecting Tribal and First Nation Adaptive Management and Climate Related Activities in the Crown of the Continent Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Characterization of Montane Ecosystems, Their Microclimates, and Wildlife Distribution and Abundance Across the Hydrographic Great Basin Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Shivwits Paiute Cultural Values and Important Natural Resources at Risk from Landscape Level Stressors Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records