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Forests west of the Cascade Crest in Oregon and Washington have been shaped by infrequent but severe wildfires that historically occurred at intervals spanning several centuries. Since the mid-1900s, relatively few fires have occurred in the region, resulting in a general lack of understanding of the drivers of these fires, the impacts on ecosystems, and possible management responses. Most of the current regional understanding of fire regimes and impacts instead comes from the drier, interior forests. However, recent fire events between 2014 and 2018 (e.g., the Norse Peak Fire in Washington) have raised concern among land managers in the Pacific Northwest about fire risk in a warming climate. This project will...
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Since time immemorial, the nearshore habitats of the Salish Sea, the shared estuarine waters between coastal British Columbia and Washington State, have provided crucial habitats for many culturally important species: nursery areas for Dungeness crab, critical juvenile rearing areas for migrating Pacific salmon, and sedimentary deltas laden with clams and oysters. Together these animals form the basis of indigenous Salish People’s food sovereignty and help define their way of life. Yet today, these resources are at risk from the invasive European green crab (EGC), which was brought to the area under oceanic conditions exacerbated by climate change and is thriving due to the crabs’ ability to quickly adapt. The EGC...
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Surrounded by saltwater, human and natural communities on the Hawaiian Islands depend upon the freshwater supplied by rainfall for survival. Climate change will likely alter rainfall timing and intensity, but global climate models cannot capture the fine-scale dynamics of local rainfall, making future rainfall predictions for the islands uncertain. For this project, scientists used a technique called statistical downscaling (combining coarse-scale climate models with local historical data) to generate high-resolution maps showing seasonal rainfall change projections for Hawaiʻi over the course of this century. Results suggest that Hawaiʻi’s climate will become drier overall in the second half of the century, but...
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In 2020, in partnership with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC), the Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (MW CASC) completed a four-part process to identify climate science priorities for both the Northeast and Midwest regions. The process included: structured feedback from an advisory committee, the completion of six listening sessions, feedback from project partners, and a review of regional climate initiatives. These efforts identified five management challenges for the MW CASC: 1) heavy precipitation events and drought, 2) loss of winter, 3) altered water levels, flows and temperatures, 4) new terrestrial landscapes resulting from climate change, and 5) barriers and opportunities...
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Cyanobacteria blooms are one of the most significant management challenges in the Great Lakes today. Recurring blooms of varying toxicity are commonly observed in four of the Great Lakes, and the fifth, Lake Superior, has experienced intermittent nearshore blooms since 2012. The recent advent of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Superior is disconcerting, given the highly valued, pristine water quality of the large lake. It is possible that the ecological state of Lake Superior is shifting and that we are witnessing the beginnings of larger and longer lasting bloom events. As a public resource, the coastal water quality of Lake Superior has tremendous economic, public health, and environmental value, and therefore,...
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Hydrologic models are used throughout the world to forecast and simulate streamflow, inform water management, municipal planning, and ecosystem conservation, and investigate potential effects of climate and land-use change on hydrology. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group is currently developing the infrastructure for a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive, and consistent hydrologic model development and application. The NHM is expected to provide internally consistent estimates of total water availability, water sources, and streamflow timing, and measures of uncertainty around these estimates, for the entire United States. VisTrails, a scientific workflow and provenance...
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Natural climate variability can obscure or enhance long-term trends in experienced weather due to climate change. This can happen temporarily on timescales of a season to several years to a decade or two. Natural variability is poorly described and attributed to specific causes, contributing to uncertainty and misunderstandings about the nature of climate change that stakeholders and resource managers attempt to anticipate. There exists, therefore, a need to clarify the magnitude and causality of natural climate variability. This connection needs to be explained for locally-experienced weather and particularly for daily extreme events, whose seasonal behavior impacts both resources and imagination. Conversely, it...
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Wild berries are a valued traditional food for tribes of the Chugachmiut Tribal Consortium (Chenega Bay, Eyak, Nanwalek, Port Graham, Qutekcak, Tatitlek, and Valdez) in the rural Chugach region of south-central Alaska. Berries supply essential nutrients that prevent heart disease and cancer, are used for medicinal purposes, and are the only sweet food in the traditional Native diet. Hence, berries have both nutritional and cultural significance. From 2008 to 2012, wild berry populations in the Chugach region were decimated by an unexpected outbreak of moths, thought to have been brought about by shifting climate (i.e., warmer temperatures allowed a greater number of moths to survive the winter). This outbreak...
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Preparing for and responding to the impacts of climate change are critical to the wellbeing of tribal communities that rely on natural resources to sustain their families, communities, traditional ways of life, and cultural identities. Recognizing this, efforts across the country are underway to support and enhance the capacity of tribes to prepare for climate change risks. However, due to staffing, technical, and financial limitations, many tribes continue to experience difficulty initiating and completing the critical first step of the climate adaptation planning process: a “climate change vulnerability assessment”, i.e., a structured assessment of the specific potential impacts of climate change that the tribe...
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Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost approximately 1,900 mi2 of land due to coastal erosion, land subsidence, and sea-level rise exacerbated by climate change, putting Native American archaeological sites along Louisiana’s Gulf Coast in danger of being destroyed. These cultural resources are crucial sources of information and represent the unique heritage of coastal Louisiana. Federal and State agency resource managers, coastal communities, and regional stakeholders would benefit from up-to-date science-based information on these endangered cultural resources and on climate-informed management options. In partnership with the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, a team of University archaeologists, climate scientists,...
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Tens of millions of migratory birds are dependent on wetland and riparian stopovers in arid and semiarid regions of North America. Global climate change would superimpose even greater stress on these ecosystems as indicated by climate change model predictions of higher temperatures and less precipitation in the southwestern United States. In partnership with the University of Arizona, the Nebraska Cooperative Research Unit, and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USGS scientists have investigated (1) how climate change may alter the spacing and quality of critical wetland stopover habitats; (2) the sensitivities of migrating songbirds to loss of riparian forests due to climate change and water-use patterns; (3)...
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The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contribute to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Researchers demonstrated the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments for predicting uncertainty. A BN was used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN was used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response...
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Migratory birds are important for recreation and tourism, contributing to a vibrant birdwatching industry in Alaska. Every spring, hundreds of birds migrate to their summer breeding grounds in Alaska and northern Canada. Their arrival is timed with the height of the spring green-up of plants, which provide the food necessary for birds to reproduce and raise their young. However, over the last fifty years, warming temperatures in Alaska as a result of climate change have prompted an earlier transition from winter to spring. The purpose of this project was to examine whether there have been changes in the timing of spring green-up in recent years (1985-2009) and, if so, whether migratory birds are adapting their migration...
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Winter conditions have changed substantially in the Great Lakes region over the last 50 years, with the region experiencing rising temperatures, declining lake ice cover, and increased lake-effect snow. These changes have direct implications for economically important wildlife, such as deer and waterfowl. Deer hunting alone contributes $482 million annually to Wisconsin’s economy. The goal of this project was to identify how winter severity, snowpack, and lake ice could change through the mid- and late-21st century, and how species such as the white-tailed deer and mallard duck will respond. Because currently available climate data is at too coarse a scale to provide information on future conditions for the Great...
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Human impacts occurring throughout the DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on streams in the region which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
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Forests play a role in air quality by supplying the atmosphere with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors to ozone and aerosols. Different tree types emit different VOCs, each with different capacity to form ozone and aerosols. Therefore, shifts in forest composition may impact ozone and aerosol yields. Climate change is one of the expected drivers of forest change. In particular, the current range boundaries of a variety of species are expected to shift northward. The impacts of these climate-induced shifts in forest composition on air quality, particularly VOC emissions and subsequent ozone and aerosol formation, is little understood. This project aimed to explore the relative contribution of shifts in...
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Scientists and resource managers are in need of a better understanding of the status and trends of wildlife species and the vulnerability of these species to climate change. Effective prioritization of species and habitats for climate adaptation, endangered species management, and recreational and cultural hunting and fishing will require development, testing, and application of comprehensive strategies for conducting climate change vulnerability assessments. This project aims to build and test a method for more consistently assessing species vulnerability to climate change on a national scale. Project researchers will develop an indicator of species vulnerability that can be applied nationwide to support a...
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In 2010, 39 percent of the U.S.population lived near the coast. This population is expected to increase by 8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Coastal regions are also home to species and habitats that provide critical services to humans, such as wetlands that buffer coasts from storms. Therefore, sea-level rise and the associated changes in coastlines challenge both human communities and ecosystems. Understanding which coastal lands will be vulnerable to sea-level rise is critical for policy makers, land-use planners, and coastal residents. Focusing on the coastal region from Virginia to Maine, researchers examined a range of different possible sea-level rise scenarios, combined with information on features of the coastal...
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Recent extreme floods on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers have motivated decision-makers and resource managers to expaned floodplain conservation lands. Within Missouri, there are more than 85,000 acres of public conservation lands in large-river floodplains. Floodplain lands are highly dynamic and challenging to manage, particularly climatic conditions change. These lands have the potential to provide valuable ecosystem services, like wildlife habitat, nutrient processing, carbon sequestration, and flood-water storage, that produce economic values in terms of recreational spending, improved water quality, and decreased flood hazards. However, floodplain managers may need tools to help them understand changing...
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Enhancing ecological connectivity - the degree to which landscapes facilitate the movement of the organisms within them - is a frequently recommended strategy for conserving wildlife populations into the future. This is because a primary way in which species respond to climate change is by adjusting their geographic ranges to find more suitable temperatures and adequate food supplies. It is also because connectivity facilitates many other important ecological and evolutionary processes within species' ranges, further promoting resilience and healthy populations. However, widespread fragmentation of landscapes by human activities presents a serious obstacle to these processes, which may contribute to a decline in...
map background search result map search result map Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Developing a VisTrails Platform for Modeling Streamflow Hydrology and Projecting Climate Change Effects on Streamflow FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Building Tribal Capacity to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Forest Fires in Western Cascadia: Evaluating Drivers and Impacts to Inform Climate-Adaptive Management Responses Developing an Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change to Support a Consistent Nationwide Approach to Assessing Vulnerability Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Maximizing Trap Efficiency on Lummi Nation Estuarine Habitats to Reduce Ecosystem Impacts from Invasive European Green Crab Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Technical Assessment of Climate Science Needs in the Midwest Maximizing Trap Efficiency on Lummi Nation Estuarine Habitats to Reduce Ecosystem Impacts from Invasive European Green Crab Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Forest Fires in Western Cascadia: Evaluating Drivers and Impacts to Inform Climate-Adaptive Management Responses Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Building Tribal Capacity to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change Technical Assessment of Climate Science Needs in the Midwest Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Developing an Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change to Support a Consistent Nationwide Approach to Assessing Vulnerability Developing a VisTrails Platform for Modeling Streamflow Hydrology and Projecting Climate Change Effects on Streamflow