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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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Tribal communities have spiritually rich and complex connections with the natural environment, and their traditions, identities, and economies rely heavily on local natural resources. Because of this intimate connection with nature, tribes are especially vulnerable to climate changes that disrupt their surroundings. Surprisingly, however, few studies have delved deeply into Native thinking around climate change and its cultural impacts. This project sought to understand the ways in which Native American culture and cultural practices in the northwestern U.S. have been affected by climate change. Researchers conducted in-depth interviews with tribal elders and cultural experts belonging to three Northwest tribes...
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Aspen is an environmentally, economically, and socially important species in the western U.S. It is typically the most abundant deciduous tree species in mountainous landscapes of the western U.S., providing food and habitat for a variety of wildlife, including black bear, deer, elk, moose, and numerous bird species. Aspen woodlands also provide high quality forage for livestock and draw tourists to the region to view the golden vistas that form in the fall. However, aspen is currently declining across large portions of the West and it’s estimated that approximately 40% of western aspen will be without suitable climate conditions within 50 years. In the northern and central Rocky Mountains, it’s thought that reduced...
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The majority of the West Coast’s most extreme storms have been linked to atmospheric rivers, a meteorological phenomenon in which large amounts of moisture are carried in narrow bands from over the Pacific Ocean to western North America. While weak atmospheric rivers are critical providers of winter rain and snow, stronger events can cause extreme flooding, mudslides, and avalanches – leading to potentially catastrophic damage to life and property. Extreme winter storms, including those linked to atmospheric rivers, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. The goal of this project is to identify how these extreme events impact ecosystems and communities across the Southwest....
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Climate affects both the demographics of the Greater sage-grouse bird and the condition and long-term viability of their habitats, including sage-steppe communities. This project builds on collaboration among federal land managers, state wildlife biologists, scientists, and other organizations to create a long-term framework for implementing adaptive management for the sage-grouse. The study examined factors that might be limiting grouse numbers and will investigate components of weather patterns in relation to projected climate change models. Precipitation and temperature, as well as variables such as evaporation and soil moisture, will be considered. Overall, the project focused on (1) providing workshops to foster...
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Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged drought, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future. These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water under unpredictable drought conditions, preserving forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions. In light of the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, this project sought to help decision-makers...
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Changing temperature and precipitation patterns in the South Central U.S are already having an impact on wildlife. Hotter and drier conditions are prompting some species to move in search of cooler conditions, while other species are moving into warmer areas that were once unsuitable for them. These changes in the distribution of wildlife populations present challenges for wildlife managers, hunters, tribal communities, and others who are making decisions about wildlife stewardship. This project examined the effect of shifting climate conditions on 20 species of conservation concern in the South Central United States. These species, which include the black-tailed prairie dog and the lesser prairie-chicken, were...
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To date, hydrological and ecological models have been developed independently from each other, making their application particularly challenging for interdisciplinary studies. The objective of this project was to synthesize and evaluate prevailing hydrological and ecological models in the South-Central U.S., particularly the southern Great Plains region. This analysis aimed to identify the data requirements and suitability of each model to simulate stream flow while addressing associated changes in the ecology of stream systems, and to portray climate variability and uncertainty. The results and deliverables of this project are expected to include a comprehensive, updated, and systematic report on recent developments...
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Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperature and moisture may make current habitat no longer suitable for some species, and could allow invasive species to spread into new areas. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park is home to 23 species of endangered vascular plants and 15 species of endangered trees. Understanding how climate change may impact the park’s plants...
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Healthy forests and woodlands in the western United States provide many important benefits, including providing habitat for wildlife, forage for livestock, and clean water for fish and human use. Yet climate change and other stressors, from wildfires and insect attacks to severe droughts, are causing unprecedented tree die offs across the region, threatening many of these ecosystem services. Following these mortality episodes, a key question becomes: how will these ecosystems recover? In some cases, forests eventually return to their pre-disturbance states, growing back the same species and creating the same kind of ecological communities as before. However, there are increasing observations of ecosystems that...
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Moose and caribou are two very important animals to both subsistence and sport hunting economies in Alaska. Their survival and reproduction is dependent on sufficient winter habitat and food sources, which may be threatened by climate change. During the winter, caribou eat lichens (organisms made up of algae and fungus) that grow on the snow-covered ground. Lichens will likely have a complex response to climate change, affected in different ways by factors like changing precipitation, wildfire, and competition with plants. For example, as temperatures warm, there will likely be less snow cover, exposing more of the lichen to caribou. Simultaneously, increased fire frequency could reduce lichen availability. Moose,...
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The Hawaiian Islands are home to many people and host a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, but they are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced very high resolution climate projections for the Hawaiian islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i, providing information on key variables...
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Ponderosa pine forests are declining and their future persistence is uncertain. Most research on forest declines has focused on the effects of disturbances including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and severe drought on mortality of mature trees. Yet, recent research suggests that ponderosa pine declines may be even more severe as these ecosystems fail to regenerate naturally (i.e. grow from seed to adulthood) in a climate that is becoming increasingly less favorable for juvenile tree survival. For land managers to accurately assess and combat the risk of failed regeneration, it is critical to better understand the many factors supporting regeneration across the diverse habitats where these ecosystems are located. ...
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A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North Central region. Particularly, when they prepare to conduct Species Status Assessments to better evaluate risk to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods resulting from a changing climate. Scientists have traditionally gone through the time intensive process of extracting and analyzing different climate datasets...
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The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for rare wildlife and plants, improved water quality, and recreation opportunities. Understanding how climate change will affect these ecosystems is vital for knowing how best to protect them and the services they supply. The goal of this project was to assess the climate change vulnerability of 12 key ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean, ranging from Caribbean coastal mangrove to Nashville Basin limestone glade and woodland. Scientists used the existing scientific literature and geospatial analysis to determine each ecosystem’s sensitivity to changes in climate, its exposure level to...
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Coastal wetlands purify water, protect coastal communities from storms, sequester (store) carbon, and provide habitat for fish and wildlife. They are also vulnerable to climate change. In particular, changes in winter climate (warmer temperatures and fewer freeze events) may transform coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as mangrove forests are expected to expand their range and replace salt marshes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. As part of this project, researchers identified important thresholds for ecosystem changes and highlighted coastal areas in the southeastern U.S. (e.g., Texas, Louisiana,...
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Overview This project is using a combination of long-term data records and recently established large-scale adaptive management studies in managed forests across the Lake States, New England, Intermountain West, and Black Hills to identify forest management strategies and forest conditions that confer the greatest levels of resistance and resilience to past and emerging stressors and their relevance in addressing future global change. This work represents a broad partnership between scientists from the USFS Northern Research Station, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, USGS, University of MN, University of Maine, and Dartmouth College in an effort to capitalize on over 50 years of data collection on USFS...
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Overview A changing regional climate in the northeastern US has significant implications for the fundamental bioenergetics of fish species, with implications for their population resilience and their ability to provide critical ecosystem services, with particularly important implications for tribal communities. For example, warming soil and water temperatures may increase the accumulation of toxic methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic food webs and in freshwater and migratory fishes. High levels of MeHg currently generate most of the fish consumption advisories across the northeast US, and climate-driven increases carry substantial economic and health risks. However, climate impacts Hg dynamics via multiple pathways...
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In the southwestern U.S., climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme droughts and cause an overall decrease in precipitation and increase in temperatures. These changes could impact a wide range of species in the region, even those adapted to living in arid environments. It’s possible that some species may be able to adapt to changing conditions by migrating to new locations or altering their behavior, while others may have genetic traits that activate physiological changes to cope with heat and water stress. This project focused on desert bighorn sheep and explored potential adaptations that may help them persist despite varying climates throughout their range. Previous research has shown...
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Overview Invasive species and climate change represent two of the five major global change threats to ecosystems. An emerging initiative of the Northeast Climate Science Center aims to develop management-relevant research to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change. Through working groups, information sharing and targeted research, this project addresses the information needs of invasive species managers in the context of climate change. RISCC Management is collaboratively led by the Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center, the New York Invasive Species Research Institute, and the University of Massachusetts to address the question “How can we manage for upcoming biological...
map background search result map search result map Integrating Climate and Biological Data into Management Decisions for the Greater Sage-­Grouse and their Habitats Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Studying the Effects of Climate Change on Moose and Caribou Habitat in Alaska Very High Resolution Climate Projections for the Islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 1 Modeling the Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat Assessing the Cultural Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Tribes Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Evaluating Adaptations of Desert Bighorn Sheep to Climate Change in the Southwestern U.S. Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.? Science to Help Move From Mortality to Recovery in Western Forests and Woodlands Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England Drivers of Growth, Migration, and Bioaccumulation in Target Fish Species: Implications for a Changing Regional Climate Science to Help Move From Mortality to Recovery in Western Forests and Woodlands Very High Resolution Climate Projections for the Islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 1 Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada Integrating Climate and Biological Data into Management Decisions for the Greater Sage-­Grouse and their Habitats Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains Drivers of Growth, Migration, and Bioaccumulation in Target Fish Species: Implications for a Changing Regional Climate Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Assessing the Cultural Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Tribes Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions Modeling the Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.? Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Evaluating Adaptations of Desert Bighorn Sheep to Climate Change in the Southwestern U.S. Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England Studying the Effects of Climate Change on Moose and Caribou Habitat in Alaska Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington