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In collaboration with the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, this project advanced efforts to understand and accommodate uncertainty by applying to Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics the tools of multi-scale climate models and hierarchical Bayesian modeling frameworks, linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. While a complete climate prediction may be intractable at this time -- for instance, the climate projections may not incorporate land use changes and solar fluctuations into the boundary conditions -- we proposed a framework to quantify known uncertainty that is also flexible enough to adapt to advances in climate predictions. A key advantage of the...
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The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a familiar species across the southeastern Coastal Plain, but its population has declined significantly over the decades. One reason is that much of its primary habitat, sparse stands of mature pine, has been replaced by development or agriculture. Another is that periodic ground fires, which are important for providing needed forage for the tortoise, have been largely suppressed on the landscape. The gopher tortoise is a “keystone” species, meaning that its disappearance from the landscape would jeopardize the existence of many other species that make use of its underground burrows. Besides tortoise habitat, the uplands of the Coastal Plain contain isolated seasonal...
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We routinely encounter uncertainty when we make decisions – from picking a new morning coffee to choosing where to live. Even decisions that are supported by science contain some level of remaining uncertainty. In the context of conservation and wildlife management, the potential for uncertainty to influence decisions is perhaps most obvious when we think about predicting how actions (or non-actions) will have lasting impacts into the future. Our abilities to precisely predict future climatic and ecological conditions and determine the exact consequences of our actions are, and will remain, limited. Conservation practitioners and land and wildlife managers must navigate these challenges to make science-informed...
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USGS researchers assessed how climate change can affect land cover and flow in river systems, examining a variety of resolutions for detecting and projecting the conditions of aquatic habitats and species.
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The USGS and South Atlantic LCC worked with stakeholders and managers across the Southeast to identify and assess landscape-level strategies for conserving multiple species. These strategies incorporated predictions from downscaled climate models, sea level rise, and changes to aquatic and terrestrial habitats.
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The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) develops scientific information and tools to help managers address climate variability and climate change related to impacts on land, water, fish and wildlife, nearshore, coastal and cultural heritage resources. The NE CASC is hosted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMASS) with consortium partners College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Cornell University, Michigan State University, University of Missouri, University of Vermont, University of Wisconsin, Woodwell Climate Research Center and the United States Forest Service Northern Research Station. The NE CASC consortium addresses regional science priorities of the Department of the...
map background search result map search result map Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation SERAP: The Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Species and Habitat in the Southeast SERAP: Decision Support for Stakeholders and Managers Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) SERAP: The Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Species and Habitat in the Southeast SERAP: Decision Support for Stakeholders and Managers Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions