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Abstract (from RMetS): Over the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation‐dependent warming, which suggests that warming increases with elevation. These findings could reflect (a) a genuine absence of elevation‐dependent warming in the region, (b) systematic non‐climatic influences on either the USHCN stations or high‐elevation stations, including known inhomogeneities related to changes in the time of observation and instrumentation, or (c) suppression...
Abstract (from AMS): The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past...
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Recently intensifying drought conditions have caused increased stress to non-native tamarisk vegetation across riparian areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter Tribe) and the Upper Gila River watershed in Arizona and New Mexico. This also increases wildfire risk in the area, making the removal of tamarisk vegetation a primary restoration and climate adaptation objective for the Tribe. The research from this project can improve the Tribe’s capacity to map tamarisk and other riparian vegetation, in addition to monitoring the relative condition and water stress of the vegetation in a timely manner. Specifically, the project will help identify where tamarisk is on the reservation and inform restoration actions...
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Riparian systems are critical to the human and ecological communities that interact with them. For the members of San Carlos Apache Tribe, this is particularly true, as riparian systems provide immense cultural and natural values such as ceremonial grounds and recreation areas. However, the riparian areas within the San Carlos Apache Reservation are at risk of degradation due to climate change and land use. Over the past several decades, invasive vegetation, changes in river discharge, and increased wildfire activity have continued to threaten the area’s riparian resources. This project aims to inform riparian restoration efforts by providing products that: identify historic vegetation and river channel properties,...
Abstract (from AGU 100): Periodic oscillations between El Niño and La Niña conditions in the Pacific Basin affect oceanographic and meteorological phenomena globally, with impacts on the abundance and distribution of marine species. However, El Niño effects on estuarine hydrology and tidal wetland processes have seldom been examined rigorously. We used detailed wetland elevation and local inundation data from 10 tidal wetlands located along the Pacific coast of the United States to assess changes in flooding during the 2015–2016 El Niño and to determine decadal‐scale relationships between estuarine sea‐level anomalies and Pacific Basin climate indices for this region. During the 2015–2016 El Niño all sites experienced...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Mountain watersheds serve as important water sources for socioeconomic activities in semiarid and arid regions. This study examined the streamflow response to snow regime shifts associated with climate variability in the US Great Basin. To this end, the coupled hydro-ecological simulation system (CHESS), a process-based and distributed model, was applied to four mountain watersheds in the US Great Basin. Historical weather records for the period of 1961–1990 were used to spin-up model simulations so that the soil water and vegetation reached the equilibrium state under long-term climate conditions; the period of 1991–2015 was selected as the study period. The model evaluation suggested...
Abstract (from SpringerLink): This paper presents the first record of fire in Pacific coast salt marshes; the 1993 Green Meadows Fire and the 2013 Camarillo Springs Fire burned an area of Salicornia-dominated salt marsh at Point Mugu, CA. These fires inspire concern about resiliency of ecosystems not adapted to fire, already threatened by sea-level rise (SLR), and under stress from extreme drought. We monitored vegetation percent cover, diversity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in burned and unburned areas of the salt marsh following the 2013 Camarillo Springs Fire and used remotely sensed Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) analysis to verify the in situ data. Two years following the fire, vegetation percent...
Abstract (from AGU10): The semiarid Salt and Verde River Basins in Arizona are susceptible to atmospheric river (AR)‐related flooding. To understand the precipitation‐related impacts of climate change on extreme ARs affecting Arizona, a pseudo‐global warming method was used. High‐resolution control and future simulations of five intense historical AR events that affected the Salt and Verde River Basins in Central Arizona were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model. The pseudo‐global warming approach for future simulations involved adding a temperature delta at different vertical levels to the historical initial and lateral boundary conditions of the input data while keeping...
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The Colorado River and its major tributaries provide a crucial water supply for more than 40 million people in the American Southwest and in California. This water supply is primarily used in irrigated agriculture but also provides essential drinking water to many large metropolitan areas. Hydropower is also produced at many of the large dams on the river. River flows have declined during the past 15 years due to decreasing watershed runoff associated with a warming climate and ongoing drought. Climate projections indicate a continued decrease in future water availability as runoff continues to decline and temperatures warm. Water-users in the Colorado River basin are concerned about this declining water availability...
Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we...
Abstract (from SpringerLink): The distribution patterns of sessile organisms in coastal intertidal habitats typically exhibit vertical zonation, but little is known about variability in zonation among sites or species at larger spatial scales. Data on such heterogeneity could inform mechanistic understanding of factors affecting species distributions as well as efforts to assess and manage coastal species and habitat vulnerability to sea-level rise. Using data on the vertical distribution of common plant species at 12 tidal marshes across the US Pacific coast, we examined heterogeneity in patterns of zonation to test whether distributions varied by site, species, or latitude. Interspecific zonation was evident at...
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The complex mountain and valley chains of the Southwest exert a strong influence on precipitation and wind patterns. Atmospheric rivers deliver some of the most extreme precipitation events to west-southwest-facing slopes of the mountains where strong gusty downslope winds can also spread wildfires. Climate change is making the southwest warmer and dryer resulting in more fire-prone vegetation and more frequent and extreme atmospheric rivers. Understanding this changing system is critical for managing water resources and wildfire in the region. This project will study how climate change is impacting precipitation and winds to create fire weather and drive fire spread on heavily vegetated slopes of coastal mountains....
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Clear Lake, California’s largest freshwater lake, is an important site for seven federally recognized Tribal Nations and numerous related Tribes and Tribal communities, where they hold lakeside cultural ceremonies, fish and recreate, and gather tule reeds. Today, climate change has amplified ecological imbalances within the lake, endangering aquatic wildlife and threatening the health and wellbeing of Tribal citizens. To conserve Clear Lake’s culturally significant sites and species, this project seeks to understand the relationship between wildfires, harmful algal blooms, and aquatic toxins degrading the lake’s ecosystems. The research will particularly examine threats to the endemic, endangered, and culturally...
Abstract (from Valdose Zone): Infiltration and downward percolation of water in the vadose zone are important processes that can define the availability of water resources. We present an approach that provides insight into how periodic infiltration forcings at the land surface filter in a layered vadose zone in terms of changes in the timing and magnitude of hydrologic responses. To represent geologically realistic systems, we used vertical sequences of one-dimensional periodic solutions, where each solution represents a single soil in a layered profile. The overall approach is based on a linearized Richards equation and assumes that the effects on flow of continuous pressure head changes at soil interfaces are...
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Managing water resources in arid regions is increasingly important in the face of more frequent droughts and desertification that is occurring with climate change. These challenges of climate change intersect with potential environmental contamination from naturally occurring sources and legacy human activity (such as mining) and create a need for sustainable land and water management planning solutions. This project aims to help create sustainability plans by involving and training the community and by making water resource data accessible and available. The project is a collaboration between the University of Arizona Indigenous Resilience Center, the Southwest Research Information Center, and local communities...
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The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in the southwestern United States. Consistent water level declines in Colorado River Basin reservoirs have focused research attention on the long-term changes in winter precipitation and the timing of snowmelt and runoff. Research on how warming temperatures affect winter precipitation and spring snowmelt is ongoing, however, less attention has been given to changes in spring and summer precipitation which also affects water supply, plant growth, and competition between native and non-native plants, and, in turn affects wildfire dynamics and wildlife habitat. The amount and timing of summer precipitation is largely influenced by variation in the North American...
    map background search result map search result map The Impacts of Climate Change and Water Supply Management on Fish in the Colorado River Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Monitoring and Adaptation to Conserve Clear Lake Cultural Keystone Species Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Cultivating Water Resilience with Indigenous Peoples in Arid Lands Monitoring and Adaptation to Conserve Clear Lake Cultural Keystone Species Cultivating Water Resilience with Indigenous Peoples in Arid Lands Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) The Impacts of Climate Change and Water Supply Management on Fish in the Colorado River Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest?