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  5. The Impacts of Climate Change and Water Supply Management on Fish in the Colorado River

The Impacts of Climate Change and Water Supply Management on Fish in the Colorado River

Informing Policy Response to Declining Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin: Linking Water Supply Management with Outcomes for Fish Communities
Principal Investigator
John Schmidt

Dates

Release Date
2019
Start Date
2020-04-01
End Date
2022-05-31

Summary

The Colorado River and its major tributaries provide a crucial water supply for more than 40 million people in the American Southwest and in California. This water supply is primarily used in irrigated agriculture but also provides essential drinking water to many large metropolitan areas. Hydropower is also produced at many of the large dams on the river. River flows have declined during the past 15 years due to decreasing watershed runoff associated with a warming climate and ongoing drought. Climate projections indicate a continued decrease in future water availability as runoff continues to decline and temperatures warm. Water-users in the Colorado River basin are concerned about this declining water availability and are negotiating [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
John Schmidt, Charles Yackulic
Co-Investigator :
David Rosenberg, Kevin Wheeler
Funding Agency :
Southwest CASC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

Attached Files

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ColoradoRiver_AZ_USGS.jpg
“The Colorado River, Arizona (USGS)” 		thumbnail 394.22 KB image/jpeg

Purpose

Declining watershed runoff in the Colorado River basin is forcing states and federal agencies to reconsider rules governing water supply. The agreements for Drought Contingency Planning for the Colorado River that were signed into law on 16 April 2019 apply for the next few years, and renegotiation of longer-term agreements concerning allocation of a declining water supply will begin in 2020 when the 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead are to be considered. Decisions about allocation of water supply inevitably necessitate consideration of where to store water – in headwater reservoirs or in the very large mainstem reservoirs of Powell and Mead. In turn, decisions about where to store water in reservoirs will play an important role in determining the quantity and quality of water in the riverine segments of the Colorado River that exist between the reservoirs. The quantity and quality of reservoir releases may, in turn, determine whether federally listed fish species recover or decline and will also affect tailwater recreational non-native trout species. Substantial resources are already being invested in recovering endangered species, and impending changes in reservoir storage have the potential to facilitate native species recovery. We presume that understanding potential tradeoffs between storage and endangered fish recovery will allow decision makers to identify solutions that meet society’s water supply needs while also enhancing desired fish communities. The main goals of this project are to synthesize the understanding of fish biologists and ecologists working in different parts of the basin, and develop tools to predict responses of federally listed fish species and other desired fish communities to different policy options for water storage in the Colorado River basin.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueState and federal agencies will soon begin negotiating water-supply agreements that would govern water supply and storage in the Colorado River basin through 2046. To date, large-scale water-supply management decisions in the Colorado River basin have not considered the implications for river ecosystems or the recovery of federally listed fish species. In part, failure to consider these ecological implications is because ecosystem scientists have not synthesized their assessment of the implications of significant changes in flow regime, river temperature, and other ecosystem drivers caused by changes in how much water is stored and released from the large reservoirs of the Colorado River basin. We seek funding support to synthesize these linkages, identify uncertainty and develop predictive models for decision support. We ask, “How might aquatic ecosystems and fish populations of the mainstem river segments of the Colorado River basin respond to river management changes negotiated to confront the current water-supply crisis caused by ongoing declines in runoff?” Our proposed work is an extension of our existing Future of the Colorado River project. This funded project explicitly examines alternative management paradigms concerning how the Colorado River might be managed to address climate-change-induced declines in watershed runoff. This funded project also is developing tools that allow prediction of changes in ecosystem drivers caused by changing patterns of where water is stored in reservoirs and how much water is released from those reservoirs. The work proposed in this new proposal focuses on increasing the scientific capacity to predict the aquatic ecosystem outcomes of the changes in ecosystem drivers identified in the funded Futures Project. The proposed work will occur by literature review, review of existing fish population models, and synthesis of expert opinion obtained by summarizing the extant white and grey literature, several roundtable discussions with regional experts, and bringing together stakeholders and scientists working in different parts of the Colorado River basin. The work proposed here, coupled with the outcomes of the Futures Project, will provide tools to stakeholders when they begin formal re-negotiation of the 2007 Interim Shortage Guidelines.
projectStatusIn Progress

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2019
totalFunds299998.92
parts
typeAward Type
valueCooperative Agreement
typeAward Number
valueG20AC00084
typeAward Type
valueCOA
typeAward Number
valueC19001350
totalFunds299998.92

The Colorado River, Arizona (USGS)
The Colorado River, Arizona (USGS)

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  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Southwest CASC

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC 3b835724-2a52-418b-ab06-9bb63f4067c3
StampID NCCWSC SW19-MK1751

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