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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model...
On June 27, 2016, speakers Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute, and Dave Hopper, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, discussed the need for reliable, usable tools and data sources to meet climate change-related land management challenges. The combination of projected climate change and land use adds uncertainty to the long-term effectiveness of current management strategies. Managers need reliable information to adjust their strategies as population density increases. However they are currently overwhelmed by the diversity of available information and the multiplicity of sources. The Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been working to centralize and package the usable information for land managers...
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This digital dataset contains the Warm-Dry (WD) climate scenario data used for the Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS). The Warm-Dry (WD) climate scenario is based on the 10th percentile change in precipitation and the 10th percentile change in temperature. The files included in this child item are the daily 270-meter gridded spatially distributed daily precipitation (PPT), maximum and minimum air temperature (TMX and TMN, respectively), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2100.
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The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. Every year only certain trees in certain groves accumulate clusters of thousands of monarch butterflies. Should trees die or important roosting branches collapse, monarchs may not return in the future. The overall goal of this project is to understand how the dual management goals of fire management...
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This digital dataset contains the baseline and future climate data used as the basis for analysis of current and future water supplies and demands in the Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS). SCRBS uses a suite of integrated hydrologic models to explore impacts of future climate and socioeconomic scenarios on water supplies and demands in the basins. SCRBS considers one baseline climate scenario that represents recent historical climate conditions and five future climate scenarios that encompass the range of uncertainty in projections of future climate conditions through the end of the 21st century. The baseline scenario was developed by removing trends from an observed historical climate dataset such that...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003865): Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 under vegetation modeling scenarios with and without fire suppression for a total of 80 model runs for future projections. For analysis, results were aggregated by three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW),...
This web site houses the quick guides, worksheets, and templates developed as part of a project focused on helping practitioners integrate climate change into Habitat Conservation Planning under the Endangered Species Act. It also includes a spreadsheet with information on existing HCPs that have addressed climate change. All guides and worksheets are freely downloadable.
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model...
We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model...
We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model...
We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model...
We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model...
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To evaluate the potential effects of climate change on wildlife habitat and ecological integrity in the northeastern United States from 2010 to 2080, a University of Massachusetts Amherst team derived a set of climate projections at a fine spatial resolution for the entire Northeast. The projections are based upon publicly available climate models.This dataset represents the growing season degree days (number of days in which the average temperature is > 10 degrees C) using one of two IPCC greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP8.5). The dataset is intended to represent typical growing season degree days for the years 2010-2080 rather than the actual growing season degree days. MAP UNITS ARE THE SUM OF DEGREES...
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To evaluate the potential effects of climate change on wildlife habitat and ecological integrity in the northeastern United States from 2010 to 2080, a University of Massachusetts Amherst team derived a set of climate projections at a fine spatial resolution for the entire Northeast. The projections are based upon publicly available climate models. This dataset represents projections of the total average annual precipitation (mm/year) using one of two IPCC greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5). The dataset is intended to represent typical total annual precipitation expected during the years 2010-2080.Detailed documentation for all of the UMass climate datasets is available from: http://jamba.provost.ads.umass.edu/web/lcc/DSL_documentation_climate.pdf...
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This dataset is a component of a complete package of products from the Connect the Connecticut project. Connect the Connecticut is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conserving the Connecticut River Watershed for future generations, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural ecosystems they inhabit. Click here to download the full data package, including all documentation. This dataset represents the climate response index for Marsh Wren. Climate response is one of several different measures of landscape capability that reflect different decisions (or assumptions) regarding how to incorporate current versus future land use and climate changes. The climate response index...
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This dataset is a component of a complete package of products from the Connect the Connecticut project. Connect the Connecticut is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conserving the Connecticut River Watershed for future generations, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural ecosystems they inhabit. Click here to download the full data package, including all documentation. This dataset represents the climate response index for Louisiana Waterthrush. Climate response is one of several different measures of landscape capability that reflect different decisions (or assumptions) regarding how to incorporate current versus future land use and climate changes. The climate...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
This research highlights development and application of an integrated hydrologic model (GSFLOW) to a semiarid, snow-dominated watershed in the Great Basin to evaluate Pinyon-Juniper (PJ) and temperature controls on mountain meadow shallow groundwater. The work used Google Earth Engine Landsat satellite and gridded climate archives for model evaluation. Model simulations across three decades indicated that the watershed operates on a threshold response to precipitation (P) >400 mm/y to produce a positive yield (P-ET; 9%) resulting in stream discharge and a rebound in meadow groundwater levels during these wetter years. Observed and simulated meadow groundwater response to large P correlates with above average predicted...
map background search result map search result map Precipitation mm/year projections for Northeast for years 2010-2080 RCP 4.5 Growing Season Degree Days for Northeast, Projected for 2010-2080, RCP 8.5 Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Climate Response for Louisiana Waterthrush, 2080, CT River Watershed Climate Response for Marsh Wren, 2080, CT River Watershed Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS): Future Climate Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS): Future Climate Warm-Dry (WD) Scenario Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS): Future Climate Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS): Future Climate Warm-Dry (WD) Scenario Climate Response for Louisiana Waterthrush, 2080, CT River Watershed Climate Response for Marsh Wren, 2080, CT River Watershed Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast Precipitation mm/year projections for Northeast for years 2010-2080 RCP 4.5 Growing Season Degree Days for Northeast, Projected for 2010-2080, RCP 8.5