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This data contains model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions) and simulated...
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This data contains maximum model-derived ocean currents (in meters per second) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This data contains maximum model-derived ocean currents (in meters per second) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate...
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The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends will continue, such that the warming Midwest will experience wetter winters and springs, shortened snow seasons, and extreme year-round precipitation in the future. Despite this high level of confidence in climate trends, there is limited knowledge of how these will translate to flood likelihood and the associated societal...
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The 2017 fire season in California was highly unusual with its late seasonal timing, the areal extent it burned, and its devastation to communities. These fires were associated with extreme winds and were potentially also influenced by unusually dry conditions during several years leading up to the 2017 events. This fire season brought additional attention and emphasized the vital need for managers in the western U.S. to have access to scientific information on when and where to expect dangerous fire events. Understanding the multiple factors that cause extreme wildfire events is critical to short and long-term forecasting and planning. Seasonal climate measures such as temperature and precipitation are commonly...
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To assess the current topography of the tidal marshes we conducted survey-grade elevation surveys at all sites between 2009 and 2013 using a Leica RX1200 Real Time Kinematic (RTK)Global Positioning System (GPS) rover (±1 cm horizontal, ±2 cm vertical accuracy; Leica Geosystems Inc., Norcross, GA; Figure 4). At sites with RTK network coverage (San Pablo, Petaluma, Pt. Mugu, and Newport), rover positions were received in real time from the Leica Smartnet system via a CDMA modem (www.lecia-geosystems.com). At sites without network coverage (Humboldt, Bolinas, Morro and Tijuana), rover positions were received in real time from a Leica GS10 antenna base station via radio link. When using the base station, we adjusted...
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Drought and wildfire pose enormous threats to the integrity of natural resources that land managers are charged with protecting. Recent observations and modeling forecasts indicate that these stressors will likely produce catastrophic ecosystem transformations, or abrupt changes in the condition of plants, wildlife, and their habitats, in regions across the country in coming decades. In this project, researchers will bring together land managers who have experienced various degrees of ecosystem transformation (from not yet experiencing any changes to seeing large changes across the lands they manage) to share their perspectives on how to mitigate large-scale changes in land condition. The team will conduct surveys...
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As the impacts of climate change amplify, understanding the consequences for wetlands will be critical for their sustainable management and conservation, particularly in arid regions such as the Columbia Plateau. The depressional wetlands in this region (wetlands located in topographic depressions where water can accumulate) are an important source of surface water during the summer months. However, their health depends directly on precipitation and evaporation, making them susceptible to changes in temperature and precipitation. Yet few tools for monitoring water movement patterns (hydrology) in and out of these landscapes currently exist, hindering efforts to model how they are changing. This project provided...
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The beaches of the Hawaiian Islands attract nearly 9 million visitors each year, who inject around $15.6 billion into the state’s economy and support almost 200,000 jobs. Beyond their economic importance, Hawaiian beaches are also culturally and ecologically valuable. However, climate change driven sea-level rise is causing many beaches to disappear, endangering property, infrastructure, and critical habitats. The goal of this project was to develop a method for forecasting erosion-vulnerable beach areas that could be used in coastal management planning. Researchers focused on the island of Kauaʻi, modeling beach response to rising sea level over the next century and producing maps that provide information about...
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The South Central U.S. encompasses a wide range of ecosystem types and precipitation patterns. Average annual precipitation is less than 10 inches in northwest New Mexico but can exceed 60 inches further east in Louisiana. Much of the region relies on warm-season convective precipitation – that is, highly localized brief but intense periods of rainfall that are common in the summer. This type of precipitation is a significant driver of climate and ecosystem function in the region, but it is also notoriously difficult to predict since it occurs at such small spatial and temporal scales. While global climate models are helpful for understanding and predicting large-scale precipitation trends, they often do not capture...
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National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with...
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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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The Pacific Ocean is home to a number of low-lying, coastal national parks and wildlife refuges. These public lands are situated on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise and flooding during storms. Because of their low-lying nature and limited availability of space, ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on these islands are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Sea-level rise will further exacerbate the impact of storms on island parks and refuges by increasing wave-driven coastal flooding, with consequences for ecological and human communities alike. However, most assessments of future conditions at coastal national parks and refuges consider only permanent...
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We performed bathymetric surveys using a shallow-water echo-sounding system (Takekawa et al., 2010, Brand et al., 2012) comprised of an acoustic profiler (Navisound 210; Reson, Inc., Slangerup, Denmark), Leica RTK GPS Viva rover, and laptop computer mounted on a shallow-draft, portable flat-bottom boat (Bass Hunter, Cabelas, Sidney, NE; Figure 7). The RTK GPS obtained high resolution elevations of the water surface (reported precision 10 cm water depth. We recorded twenty depth readings and one GPS location each second along transects spaced 100 m apart perpendicular to the nearby salt marsh. We calibrated the system before use with a bar-check plate and adjusted the sound velocity for salinity and temperature differences....
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We performed bathymetric surveys using a shallow-water echo-sounding system (Takekawa et al., 2010, Brand et al., 2012) comprised of an acoustic profiler (Navisound 210; Reson, Inc., Slangerup, Denmark), Leica RTK GPS Viva rover, and laptop computer mounted on a shallow-draft, portable flat-bottom boat (Bass Hunter, Cabelas, Sidney, NE; Figure 7). The RTK GPS obtained high resolution elevations of the water surface (reported precision 10 cm water depth. We recorded twenty depth readings and one GPS location each second along transects spaced 100 m apart perpendicular to the nearby salt marsh. We calibrated the system before use with a bar-check plate and adjusted the sound velocity for salinity and temperature differences....
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To assess the current topography of the tidal marshes we conducted survey-grade elevation surveys at all sites between 2009 and 2013 using a Leica RX1200 Real Time Kinematic (RTK)Global Positioning System (GPS) rover (±1 cm horizontal, ±2 cm vertical accuracy; Leica Geosystems Inc., Norcross, GA; Figure 4). At sites with RTK network coverage (San Pablo, Petaluma, Pt. Mugu, and Newport), rover positions were received in real time from the Leica Smartnet system via a CDMA modem (www.lecia-geosystems.com). At sites without network coverage (Humboldt, Bolinas, Morro and Tijuana), rover positions were received in real time from a Leica GS10 antenna base station via radio link. When using the base station, we adjusted...
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We used WARMER, a 1-D cohort model of wetland accretion (Swanson et al., 2014), which is based on Callaway et al. (1996), to examine the effects of three SLR projections on future habitat composition at each study site. Each cohort in the model represents the total organic and inorganic matter added to the soil column each year. WARMER calculates annual elevation changes relative to MSL based on projected changes in relative sea level, subsidence, inorganic sediment accumulation, aboveground and belowground organic matter inputs, soil compaction, and organic matter decomposition for a representative marsh area. Cohort density, a function of soil mineral, organic, and water content, is calculated at each time step...
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The western coast of Alaska is a remote region, rich in wildlife and providing critical nesting habitat for many of Alaska’s seabirds. It is also home to indigenous communities who rely upon the region’s natural resources to support a traditional lifestyle of hunting, gathering, and fishing. Although the region is frequently subject to extensive inland flooding from Bering Sea storms, little is known about the extent and frequency of flooding and its impacts on vegetation, wildlife, and water quality. Furthermore, information is lacking about how climate change and sea-level rise (which can influence the frequency and intensity of storms and subsequent flooding) are affecting this area, its communities, and their...
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Haleakalā National Park (HNP) and the surrounding landscape spans many different land cover types, some of which are undergoing vegetation changes that can reduce the amount of water that infiltrates into soil. Decreased soil infiltration can lead to the erosion of terrestrial habitats, increases in the amount of sediment entering aquatic habitats, and flooding of downstream areas as runoff increases after storms. Currently, HNP managers are attempting to control runoff and erosion to avoid loss and damage within park boundaries and parks located downstream. Managers in HNP have expressed a need for information on current and future runoff and erosion risk to help prioritize management within the park and other...


map background search result map search result map Modeling Future Storm Impacts on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Improving Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Regional Climate Models Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Can We Conserve Wetlands Under a Changing Climate? Mapping Wetland Hydrology in the Columbia Plateau San Pablo, California: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model Tijuana: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model Humboldt, California: Tidal Marsh Bathymetry Digital Elevation Model San Pablo, California: Tidal Marsh Bathymetry Digital Elevation Models SLR Projections, Bolinas, Calif., 2070-2110 Preventing Extreme Fire Events by Learning from History: The Effects of Wind, Temperature, and Drought Extremes on Fire Activity Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 20-year storm in Santa Cruz County Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 20-year storm in Monterey County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 100-year storm in Monterey County Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest SLR Projections, Bolinas, Calif., 2070-2110 Humboldt, California: Tidal Marsh Bathymetry Digital Elevation Model San Pablo, California: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model Tijuana: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model San Pablo, California: Tidal Marsh Bathymetry Digital Elevation Models Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 20-year storm in Santa Cruz County Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 20-year storm in Monterey County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 100-year storm in Monterey County Modeling Future Storm Impacts on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Can We Conserve Wetlands Under a Changing Climate? Mapping Wetland Hydrology in the Columbia Plateau Preventing Extreme Fire Events by Learning from History: The Effects of Wind, Temperature, and Drought Extremes on Fire Activity Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks Improving Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Regional Climate Models Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands