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We used land cover projections for 2011 and 2050 of two scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Scenario A1B emphasizes economic growth with a global orientation and scenario B2 focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view. Our study area included counties within the southern Great Plains ecoregion in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. We calculated changes in landscape connectivity (dECA) between 2011 and 2050 for different species groups and landscape scenarios. We also calculated changes in habitat suitability (dA). We assessed the degree to which changes in landscape connectivity were influenced by changes in grassland...
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Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple...
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The Hawaiian Islands have an extremely diverse number of plants and animals found nowhere else on Earth. Changes brought about by the arrival of humans and the introduction of non-native predators, weeds, and diseases has led to the extinction of hundreds of Hawaiian species – far more than any other U.S. state. To help the State of Hawaiʻi prevent additional species from becoming extinct and to restore at-risk species to secure population sizes, the State, along with federal, private, and scientific partners, is currently developing and implementing a comprehensive conservation plan to protect and manage over 300 declining and endangered native plants and animals on the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, and Lānaʻi. This...
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Many amphibian species are highly susceptible to changes in precipitation timing and volume because of their reliance on intermittently flooded surface water pools, which are primarily filled through snowmelt and precipitation runoff. ​With increasing evapotranspiration (i.e. transfer of water from land to the atmosphere) due to climate change, the timing and availability of water in key amphibian reproductive habitats will likely be altered. This project will assess the future risk to amphibian populations in the Midwest, identifying present and future richness hotspots and those wetland species and populations most at risk of habitat loss due to climate change. The research team will model landscape level changes...
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As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer models to simulate complex elements of our climate and their interactions with ecosystems, wildlife, and biodiversity. While an extensive array of general circulation models (GCMs, climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean) exist, there is currently a lack of global biodiversity models. This project...
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Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation concern and is currently under consideration for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Recent analyses suggest that common, widespread species may also be declining. Yet robust evidence for general declines is patchy and the causes are difficult to discern. Understanding the relative importance of climate, land...
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This project built on an existing regional conservation partnership to use the most recent downscaled climate model projections to forecast the likely impacts of climate change to species and ecosystems in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV). The objective of this work was to develop and test ecological and biological models to facilitate regional adaptive management of wildlife resources and the forest and wetland ecosystems that support them in the LMV. The modeled projections were then used to evaluate climate change effects on high priority bird species, waterfowl, amphibians, and fisheries. In particular, the researchers sought to answer two key questions: (1) what are the impacts of predicted climate change...
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Wildfire is a natural and essential process in forest ecosystems, but characteristics of fire regimes that have shaped these landscapes over long time scales are changing with climate change and human activities. In some places, changes in fire size, frequency, and severity threaten to degrade essential ecosystem services that produce clean air and water, fertile soil for crop and wood production, and habitat for plant and animal species. Hence, it is urgent to understand how both our actions and inactions contribute to the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and to develop management practices that help sustain and conserve vegetation and wildlife communities in vulnerable forest systems. Our project will address...
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Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined regions, and expectations that tropical environments will experience greater changes in temperature. Tropical island communities are faced with making important decisions related to adaptation that could impact the health of important natural resources and ecosystems. However, a lack of scientific guidance and information...
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Invasive species have increasingly severe consequences for ecosystems and human communities alike. The ecological impacts of invasive species are often irreversible, and include the loss of native species and the spread of disease. Implications for human communities include damaged water transportation systems, reduced crop yields, reduced forage quality for livestock, and widespread tree death - which can lead to increases in wildfire and loss of biodiversity. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the spread of invasive species, making this a key management and conservation concern across the United States. This project will synthesize what we know about how climate change impacts the spread of invasive...
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Snow conditions are changing dramatically in the mountains of the interior Pacific Northwest, including eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and western Montana. These changes can both benefit and hinder a variety of wildlife species. The timing and extent of seasonal snowpacks, in addition to snow depth, density, and hardness, can impact the ability of wildlife to access forage, their ability to move across the landscape, and their vulnerability to predators, to name a few. In order to respond effectively to changes in snow conditions, wildlife managers need tools to identify areas and promote conditions that maintain late spring and early summer snowpack for some sensitive species. Managers also require an index...
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As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these...
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There are significant investments by states and resource agencies in the northeast U.S. for invasive aquatic species monitoring and management. These investments in jurisdictional waters help maintain their use for drinking, industry, and recreation. It is essential to understand the risks from invasive species, because once established, species can be costly to society and difficult or impossible to control. Identifying which species are most likely to move into a new region and cause harmful impacts can aid in preventing introductions and establishment. This is especially important in response to climate change as habitats potentially become usable to previously range-restricted species. Currently, hundreds...
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Natural resource managers are confronted with the pressing challenge to develop conservation plans that address complex ecological and societal needs against the backdrop of a rapidly changing climate. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) provide valuable information that helps guide management and conservation actions in this regard. An essential component to CCVAs is understanding adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change. However, adaptive capacity is the least understood and evaluated component of CCVAs. This is largely due to a fundamental need for guidance on how to assess adaptive capacity and incorporate this information into conservation planning...
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The Monarch’s View of a City project will lay the groundwork for design principles to guide the development, testing and deployment of future urban conservation for the Monarch butterfly across the Eastern half of the country. This strategy will need to reflect an integrated and interdisciplinary approach, one that includes ecological and social dimensions specific to an urban landscape. Pilot design projects at various scales in at least two cities will advance the state of science for developing landscape conservation design (LCD) guidelines for monarch butterfly conservation in urban areas as described below. While the ETPBR LCC, working through US Fish & Wildlife Service staff, will select cities and manage...
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The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting local observations (individual plants or animals) of phenology with those at regional to continental scales (10 km to 10,000 km), which may ultimately be used to better understand phenology across ecosystems and landscapes and thereby inform natural resource management. The specific shorter-term goals of this effort are to process...
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The pine rockland ecosystem is found only in south Florida and the Bahamas and provides important habitat for numerous rare and endemic plants and animals. These include 18 species that are already federally listed as threatened or endangered and four other species petitioned for listing that are scheduled for development of Species Status Assessments (SSAs). Today, south Florida’s pine rockland ecosystem represents less than 3 percent of its original extent. Threats such as saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise pose the greatest risk to the longevity of this ecosystem. For the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to make decisions about the potential listing of a species, they must be able to forecast...
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Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to be changing at a slower rate than other parts of North America; however, land use change associated with urbanization is having a significant effect on wildlife populations and habitat availability. We sought to understand the effect of global warming on both beneficial and pest insects of trees. We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming in as much as many cities have already warmed as much, due to heat island effects, as they are expected to warm due to climate change by 2050 or even 2100. We were able to develop good predictive models of how warming influences beneficial and pest insects for cities in the Southeast and across the east coast more generally....
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In the Southeast, where rapid human development is increasingly dividing natural areas, habitat fragmentation and loss threaten the health and even genetic viability of wildlife populations, and interrupt migration routes. Climate change is projected to exacerbate fragmentation by further disrupting landscapes. To make matters worse, it is also expected to shift the range of many species, forcing animals capable of adapting by moving to expand into new areas to find more suitable temperatures and adequate food supplies – a challenge made difficult, if not impossible, by disconnected landscapes. Maintaining connectivity between habitats is a key strategy for conserving wildlife populations into the future, and sound...
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Amphibians in the US Caribbean, like the well-known coquí frog, are particularly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Coquí frogs are represented by 17 species across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands and include several mountainous and coastal species that are threatened by extreme heat and drying, loss of coastal freshwater marshes through saltwater intrusion, or both. Over the past decade, the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center has invested in several scientific investigations to understand how global climate change is likely to affect the local climate of the US Caribbean and how sensitive different coquí species are to changes in local climate and habitat conditions in Puerto Rico. This project...


map background search result map search result map Understanding How Warming Temperatures Will Impact Trees and Insects Using Cities as a Proxy Understanding Habitat Connectivity to Inform Conservation Decisions Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward A Monarch’s View of Urban Landscapes: Pilot City Design Report Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Estimating the Spatial and Temporal Extent of Snowpack Properties in Complex Terrain: Leveraging Novel Data to Adapt Wildlife and Habitat Management Practices to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Field Surveys for Vanishing Species: Closing Data Gaps to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Hawaiian Land Snails and Preserve Biodiversity Assessing Vulnerability of Vegetation and Wildlife Communities to Post-Fire Transformations to Guide Management of Southwestern Pine Forests and Woodlands Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Understanding How Warming Temperatures Will Impact Trees and Insects Using Cities as a Proxy Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Estimating the Spatial and Temporal Extent of Snowpack Properties in Complex Terrain: Leveraging Novel Data to Adapt Wildlife and Habitat Management Practices to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Assessing Vulnerability of Vegetation and Wildlife Communities to Post-Fire Transformations to Guide Management of Southwestern Pine Forests and Woodlands Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view A Monarch’s View of Urban Landscapes: Pilot City Design Report Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Field Surveys for Vanishing Species: Closing Data Gaps to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Hawaiian Land Snails and Preserve Biodiversity Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Understanding Habitat Connectivity to Inform Conservation Decisions Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling