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Abstract (from http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0739456X16657160): Sea-level rise (SLR) presents risks to communities and ecosystems because of hazards like coastal erosion. In order to adapt, planners and the public seek estimates of shoreline change with high confidence and accuracy. The complexity of shorelines produces considerable uncertainty in the timing, location and magnitude of change. We present and discuss a probabilistic shoreline model for SLR planning. Using the coast of Maui as an illustrative case, we compare this model to a common deterministic model. We discuss the advantages of a probability-based model for SLR adaptation, including for prioritizing actions, phasing, visualizing risk...
This webinar was conducted on April 16, 2015. Reducing coral reef vulnerability to climate change requires that managers understand and support the natural resilience of coral reefs. To assist these managers, a team of researchers, supported by the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PI CSC) undertook a project to: 1) assess ecological resilience in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), which is in the west Pacific near Guam, and 2) collaboratively develop a decision-support framework with local management partners for resilience-based management. The team used an approach that included surveys of 78 sites along reefs surrounding the most populated islands in CNMI (Saipan, Tinian/Aguijan,...
This project used climate models to produce projections of increases in sea temperatures for coral reef areas in Micronesia and abroad. The results suggest that projected sea temperature increases will cause coral bleaching to occur annually in Guam and CNMI by the early 2040s, if current greenhouse gas emissions growth continues. Coral reefs are expected to change dramatically once severe bleaching occurs annually, resulting in loss of biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services. Reefs in Micronesia would have at least a decade more time to adapt or acclimate to climate change if the emissions reductions pledges made under the Paris Agreement become reality. Importantly, the projections reveal that coral reef...
The Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project studies the multicausal nature of Marshallese migration, as well as its effects on migrants themselves and on home communities (van der Geest et al., 2019). It does so through people-centred research, seeking the views of Marshallese migrants and their relatives in the Marshall Islands. The research has a special focus on how impacts of climate change affect ecosystem services, livelihoods and migration decisions. This policy brief highlights key findings of the migration component of the research. It presents data and findings on migration patterns, drivers and impacts. It ends with a discussion of the results, with a focus on the tension between being prepared...
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The Hawaiian Islands have an extremely diverse number of plants and animals found nowhere else on Earth. Changes brought about by the arrival of humans and the introduction of non-native predators, weeds, and diseases has led to the extinction of hundreds of Hawaiian species – far more than any other U.S. state. To help the State of Hawaiʻi prevent additional species from becoming extinct and to restore at-risk species to secure population sizes, the State, along with federal, private, and scientific partners, is currently developing and implementing a comprehensive conservation plan to protect and manage over 300 declining and endangered native plants and animals on the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, and Lānaʻi. This...
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Hawaiʻi and the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands face unique challenges in adapting to climate change due to geographic isolation, coastal hazards, close cultural and economic links natural resources, and underserved populations. To address these problems, the PI-CASC works to develop actionable research products through collaborative engagement with cultural and natural resource manager to ensure applicability of the research. In efforts to further support these co-production processes, the PI-CASC Management Climate Corps was developed to connect local natural resource managers, researchers, cultural practitioners, policy professionals, community leaders, and graduate students on Hawaiʻi Islands. The...
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Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these changes. These include climate change, climate variability, and drought (referred to collectively as CCVD). Climate variability describes how the climate fluctuates on a yearly basis around average values, while climate change describes patterns of long-term continuous change in the average. While it is understood that CCVD...
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With an average elevation of just seven feet above sea level, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is acutely vulnerable to inundation from both episodic events such as storm surge and chronic conditions such as sea-level rise. Some projections estimate that future sea-level rise could exceed the average elevation of these islands by 2100. Already, residents are facing extreme high tides and 16 foot swells that flood the islands with saltwater, damaging homes and infrastructure and contaminating the freshwater supply. Land elevation is the primary factor that determines the vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation. This project builds on previous work in which a 1-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM)...
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Freshwater is a critical driver for island ecosystems and essential part of the water cycle in tropical islands, which is threaten by climate change. Changes in streamflow patterns may impact streams, estuarine, and coastal habitats. In Hawai‘i, these habitats support five native stream fish species. To examine how changes in streamflow have impacted habitat quality for these native aquatic species, an ongoing project has been examining statewide long-term stream records. This study will examine historical extreme weather patterns, including flood and drought, to describe the characteristics and flow patterns of stream habitats in Hawaiʻi. This information will then be associated with observed fish populations...
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Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services critical to human well-being (e.g., protection from storms and floods, food, income, recreation, and cultural practices), but they are threatened by growing human pressures and climate change. Resource managers must make complex decisions when developing adaptation plans that are cost-effective and maintain coral reef functions while still allowing for human use and development. Through this project, scientists developed a decision-support tool for managers to (1) identify the areas that provide the most critical coral reef services (i.e., supply the most value to humans) as well as the areas of reef most threatened, and (2) compare the effects of reef management...
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This layer depicts projected abundance of native and non-native plant species in the main Hawaiian Islands with high levels of uncertainty removed in post-processing. To estimate native and invasive species abundance in baseline climate conditions, a map was generated that considered abundance as percent cover and used high coefficient of variation values as a mask. The primary sources for post-processing the uncertainty masks are the Hawaiian Islands plant species abundance modeled means and standard deviation values (Wong et al., in preparation). These maps cover the entire landscape (including urban and agricultural areas), and therefore they can be applied in a variety of ways. Maps can be utilized to evaluate...
Abstract (from PLOS One): Declining natural resources have led to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. Effective ridge-to-reef management requires improved understanding of land-sea linkages and decision-support tools to simultaneously evaluate the effects of terrestrial and marine drivers on coral reefs, mediated by anthropogenic activities. Although a few applications have linked the effects of land cover to coral reefs, these are too coarse in resolution to inform watershed-scale management for Pacific Islands. To address this gap, we developed a novel linked land-sea modeling...
The 37 islands of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are low-lying atolls and islands, making the country extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The goal of this research was to provide easilyaccessible decision-making tools for managers, decision-makers and the public to assist in planning for agroforestry in the face of increasing drought and sea level rise (SLR). A team of researchers and climate change adaptation specialists from the RMI and the U.S. was responsible for the effort. Although the RMI is heavily reliant on imported food, local foods are still important in providing nutrients lacking in imported foods and has cultural importance. The role of plants in stabilizing shorelines is increasingly...
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant species’ habitats will change over the next hundred years in order to manage these resources effectively. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) where current managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitat in the future as climate changes. Expanding invasive species’ distributions under future climate conditions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective...
Episodic runoff carries suspended sediment to the nearshore, where it blocks light used for photosynthesis, smothers corals, inhibits coral recruitment, and triggers increases in macroalgae. Even small rainfalls create visible plumes over a few hours. Sediment affects coastal user enjoyment by deteriorating both ecosystem quality and visibility. Sources of erosion include unimproved roads, fallow and active agricultural fields, disturbed forests, local development, and streambanks. In this project, USGS used mapping, field experiments and monitoring, and analysis of recent (July 19–20, 2014) and historic rainfall to estimate sources of land-based pollution for watersheds in West Maui, Hawaii. USGS constructed an...
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
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Hawai‘i’s isolation, paired with limited water resources, make the archipelago sensitive to reductions in water availability. Drought can take different forms, varying across Island geographies with respect to frequency, intensity, duration, and extent. A drought event can exert hydrological, agricultural, ecological, and socio-economic impacts – and these impacts have been growing over the past century as droughts have become more frequent and severe. While the impacts of drought in Hawai‘i have been recently documented, important gaps remain in understanding these dynamics when engaging with multiple other stressors such as invasive species, shifting fire and climate patterns, pests, and pathogens. In particular,...
The climate impact summaries will be 1 page for each of Guam and CNMI. These reports are called 'Past and Projected Future Climate Impacts to Guam/CNMI'. A poster describes the past and projected future climate impacts to coral reefs in all of the U.S. coral reef jurisdictions (Guam, CNMI, American Samoa, Hawaii, Florida, Puerto Rico and USVI) and the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary.
Project researchers are measuring impacts of sea level variability on coastal reefs and communities. Researchers will relate Pacific climate extremes to local impacts, such as coastal flooding, that matter to residents and resource managers inundation by waves. This handout gives a quick overview of the project methods.
map background search result map search result map 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Valuing Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reef Ecosystem Services 2015 Hawaiian Islands Plant Species Abundance Models Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Malo‘o ka lani, wela ka honua (When the sky is dry, the earth is parched): Investigating the Cultural Dimensions of Indigenous Local Knowledge Responses to Changing Climate Conditions Increasing Climate Extension in the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center Field Surveys for Vanishing Species: Closing Data Gaps to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Hawaiian Land Snails and Preserve Biodiversity Filling the Knowledge Gaps: Extreme Weather Driven Changes in Streamflow Patterns and their Impacts on Fish in Hawaiian Streams Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi 2015 Hawaiian Islands Plant Species Abundance Models Malo‘o ka lani, wela ka honua (When the sky is dry, the earth is parched): Investigating the Cultural Dimensions of Indigenous Local Knowledge Responses to Changing Climate Conditions Field Surveys for Vanishing Species: Closing Data Gaps to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Hawaiian Land Snails and Preserve Biodiversity 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Filling the Knowledge Gaps: Extreme Weather Driven Changes in Streamflow Patterns and their Impacts on Fish in Hawaiian Streams Increasing Climate Extension in the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center