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Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate GeoTiffs
Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models...
Climate velocity is a concept derived from the intersection between ecology and climate change. It attempts to summarize the rate of climate change on a spatial scale as a movement rate (usually in units of kilometer per year) that a species would need to maintain to remain in its current climatological niche in the face of climate change. We now have downscaled climate models for the main Hawaiian Islands. In conjunction with the rainfall atlas of contemporary climate we have the information to calculate climate velocity for Hawaii, providing a useful index of the rate of climate change for conservation and resource managers. The goal of this project was to produce climate velocity maps for the seven main Hawaiian...
As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By...
A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants table with all vulnerability scores and associated data for all species
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawaii. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in the state for the last 40 years, especially at higher elevations where most native habitats and species currently persist. Unfortunately there are few long term monitoring efforts that allow us to understand plant species responses to these past, ongoing and future shifts in environmental conditions. Consequently, we know little about how environmental shifts...
· Anticipating potential shifts in plant communities has been a major challenge in climate-change ecology. In the State of Hawaii, where conservation efforts tend to be habitat focused, the lack of projections of vegetation shifts under future climate is a major knowledge gap for developing management actions for climate-change mitigation and adaptation.· As a first approximation, we have modeled potential shifts of terrestrial vegetation across the Hawaiian landscape between now and the end of this century. Our approach relies on modeling the relation between current climate and the distribution of broad climatically determined moisture zones (MZs; for example, wet, mesic, and dry areas) that form the...
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Projected climate-based range change between 1990-2010 and 2080-2100 for Hawaiian forest birds. Values for the raster include: 1- current climate range projected to be loss by end-of-century; 2- persisting climate-based range for species between now and end-of-century; 3- areas gained in climate-based range for the species between now and end-of-century. Species projected ranges are clipped by currently available compatible vegetation habitat. Manuscript output: Figure 1
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Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original > 40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered....
A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants tool to determine vulnerable species within area of interest
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21%...
As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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Current forest bird number of species based on modeled range and available primary habitat of high model reliability species. Manuscript outputs: Figures 2a, 2b, 3b, 4, 5
Zip file with all scripts for replicating analysis in Fortini, kaiser et al 2017 (Ecology and Evolution)
map background search result map search result map A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Individual forest bird species distribution projections Forest Bird Challenges and Opportunities dataset Individual forest bird species ensemble projections Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Individual forest bird species distribution projections Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Forest Bird Challenges and Opportunities dataset Individual forest bird species ensemble projections Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges