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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
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This dataset is a list of variables (in columns) corresponding to nodes in a categorical network model. Geographic variables vary according to the specific climate downscaling model used to project plant species range into the future. Continuous variables were discretized into two to five categories as required by the model, usually based on quantiles of distribution.
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The primary objective of this project is to bring together Hawaii’s climate change scientists, Molokai’s traditional fishpond managers, and other natural resource managers to share scientific and cultural knowledge and work together as a team to identify adaptive management strategies for two of Molokai’s ancient fishponds. We will accomplish this through a short series of workshops. A secondary objective is to form new and strengthen existing partnerships so we can pool resources and better respond to climate change as an island. We will incorporate workshop results into our strategic plan for the ponds and upland areas, revise our K-6 educational curriculum, create a climate change video featuring Moloka’i kupuna,...
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Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the biggest threats to the Hawaiian coastline, and resource managers of coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i must begin planning now for future impacts. The majority of these impacts are expected to occur from 2040 – 2100. PICCC funded research from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa has provided decision makers with tools to assist in adaptively managing the impacts of SLR at three coastal wetland environments in south Maui, north Maui, and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge. They also ranked threats on the basis of input from wetland management experts to develop maps of SLR impacts and vulnerability. The researchers concluded that decision makers must quickly act to develop and implement...
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One of the greatest ecological, social and economic issues of the day is the problem of climate change. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are increasing global temperatures. Much of the CO2 dissolves in the ocean, creating more acidic conditions and leading to a process known as ocean acidification (OA). Higher temperatures and increased levels of CO2 operating independently are known to be detrimental to corals, but little is known about their effect when operating in unison. Irradiance has a great influence on coral calcification rates and can interact with higher temperature and increased OA to an unknown extent. Therefore, experiments were performed in continuous flow mesocosms under...
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We analyzed the chemical composition of wood produced by Māmane, a tropical tree growing in Hawai’i, in order to reconstruct changes in climate over the Hawaiian Islands. Specifically, we measured changes in the relative abundance of carbon and oxygen isotopes taken up by the trees during photosynthesis at high elevation sites on Mauna Kea. We found that these isotopes reflect the climatic conditions (precipitation and temperature) under which the trees lived, allowing us to reconstruct relative changes in climate extending back ~130 years. Our results indicate decadal-scale changes in precipitation that correlate well with large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns that dominate much of the Pacific....
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Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original > 40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered....
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In the tropics, ample freshwater is the primary resource supporting thriving human and ecological communities. In the Pacific Islands, many watersheds are threatened by climate change, urban encroachment, and invasion by water-demanding exotic plant species like strawberry guava (SG). To maintain an adequate freshwater supply, adaptive management strategies are needed to address these concerns while confronting operational barriers to implementation. We developed a prototype watershed decision support tool (WDST) that incorporated: (i) distributed hydrology modeling to quantify effects of climate change and SG invasion on freshwater yield; (ii) a decision support tool that linked potential changes in yield with...
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The objective of this experimental research is to determine if genetic enrichment may enhance survival, growth, and adaptation of important native Hawaiian montane plant species to changing precipitation patterns by relocating conspecifics to more favorable climate regimes at higher elevation. We will collect the seeds of montane plants from low and high eevation sources, conduct outplanting trials in common locations along an elevation gradient, and monitor growth, survival, and vigor over a two_year period to evaluate a potential restoration strategy for mountain parklands of Mauna Kea, on the island of Hawaii.
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
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Coral reef ecosystems are exposed to a diverse suite of environmental forcing. Waves, wind, currents, temperature, irradiance, salinity, nutrients, turbidity, aragonite saturation state, and planktonic productivity each influence coral reefs to varying degrees, fluctuating on daily, seasonal and interannual time scales and across spatial scales spanning reefs, islands and archipelagos [1-3]. Environmental forcing is highly influential to reef ecosystem process and function, including coral reef extent and growth rates and the abundance, diversity, and morphology of reef organisms [1, 4]. Through time, coral reef ecosystems have adapted to exist within a particular climatological setting; a finite range in long-term...
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This raster indicates modeled habitat for various species under current and future conditions. Using the Price et al. (2012) parameters, we modeled species ranges as a function of elevation, temperature, and precipitation as described in Jacobi et al. (2016). Our methods departed slightly from their procedure in that we did not exclude non-pioneer-classified species from young lava flows. Jacobi, J.J., Camp, R.J., Berkowitz, S.P., Brinck, K.W., Fortini, L.B., Price, J.P., and Loh, R.M. 2016. Assess the potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management strategies within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. PICSC Final Report. URL: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/ Price, J.P., Jacobi, J.D., Gon, S.M., III,...
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This project will develop first-ever maps of ecosystem types (landcover) for the Mariana Islands. Native and alien plant communities will be classified and delineated using high-resolution satellite imagery, data from ground surveys, and new surveys where needed to ground-truth the classification. This effort will inform prioritization of conservation actions and will allow projection of future vegetation changes with climate change
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Islands exhibit the planet’s most unique flora and fauna, but biodiversity on islands is also vulnerable to the impending forces of global change. The Micronesian high island of Pohnpei exemplifies the diversity of oceanic islands, as it is home to the world lowest montane-cloud forest, vast mangrove forests, and 6 endemic bird species. We conducted a survey to assess the status of Pohnpei’s current bird population. We estimated detection rates across elevation zones, habitat-specific occupancy rates for 13 species, and habitat specific densities for 10 species. We coupled results with data from previous surveys to assess the potential impacts of vegetation change on Pohnpei avifauna during the last three decades....
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Expansion of deadly, mosquito-borne bird diseases such as avian malaria into Hawaiʽi’s high elevation forests as a result of global warming is one of the most significant threats facing the state’s rare native forest birds. Few practical options for control of disease-carrying mosquitoes over large landscapes are available, however. The best hope for remaining species of native birds may be the development of tolerance or resistance to this introduced disease. Therefore, understanding how tolerance and resistance evolve and developing ways to speed this process may be good proactive strategies for addressing impacts of climate change. We evaluated ways to rapidly measure a bird’s natural immunity with the hope that...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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The specific objectives of this contract are to identify and categorize key differences and similarities between islands and continental systems that are relevant to achieving sustainable landscapes/seascapes at regional scales; to develop a conservation framework that integrates planning processes for both terrestrial and marine resources that is consistent with the LCC Network Vision and Mission, and that connects landscape conservation design efforts for islands and mainland LCCs and to develop LCD guidelines, definitions, and goals appropriate for islands that are consistent with the SIAS metrics for LCD.
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HaleNet, the climate network on Haleakalā, Maui, is unique in Hawai‘i for its coverage of highly diverse environments, range different climate variables monitored, high temporal resolution, and longterm record. As the record length has grown and climate change has begun to affect Hawai‘i, the value of maintaining and improving this vital network has increased. Support is needed to continue operation and maintenance, replace aging sensors, data loggers, communication equipment, and support structures, and conduct data management and analysis tasks. The overarching goal of this project is to ensure continued operation and maintenance of the HaleNet system, including field operations, equipment maintenance and replacement,...
map background search result map search result map Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Synergistic Impacts of Global Warming and Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Oceanographic time series and climatologies for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Landcover mapping in the Mariana Islands as a baseline for evaluating future climate change effects Moloka`i Climate Collaboration: Bridging Climate Science and Traditional Culture Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Merged traits used to fit the Hawaiian native plant vulnerability model Modeled ranges of Hawaiian plant species under current and future conditions under three climate downscaling scenarios Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Moloka`i Climate Collaboration: Bridging Climate Science and Traditional Culture Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Landcover mapping in the Mariana Islands as a baseline for evaluating future climate change effects Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems Synergistic Impacts of Global Warming and Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges Merged traits used to fit the Hawaiian native plant vulnerability model Modeled ranges of Hawaiian plant species under current and future conditions under three climate downscaling scenarios Oceanographic time series and climatologies for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment