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On its southbound course from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, the Rio Grande provides water resources for more than 13 million people. The quantity of water flowing into the northern section of the river depends on how much snowpack from the Rocky Mountains melts into runoff and on seasonal precipitation rates. Models describing the relationship between winter snowpack quantity and springtime snowmelt runoff quantities for the basin are combined with models describing long-term natural variation in precipitation to create water supply outlooks. The outlooks developed by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service are currently used by stakeholders to make critical water allocation decisions in the basin. Improvements...
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The Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers provide drinking water to millions of people in the Southwest and South Central U.S. Snowmelt accounts for 70% of streamflow in these rivers, meaning that water use downstream is directly impacted by snow accumulation and snowmelt patterns in the mountains. Mountain forests are a critical part of the hydrologic cycle that feeds these rivers, providing water supply and storage. However wildfire, which is becoming more common as temperatures rise, can disrupt the role of mountain forests in the hydrologic cycle. Uncertainty about the interactions between wildfire and snow-water, and how these interactions may change as climate conditions shift, impedes effective water resource planning...
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The Rio Grande is naturally a water-scarce basin in which droughts have been classified as severe (with almost no rain during some years) and extended (lasting more than 10, or even 15 years). Severe and persistent droughts in the Rio Grande basin reduce water availability, which triggers economic, environmental, and social impacts, and affects compliance with interstate compacts and international treaty commitments. In contrast, the Rio Grande basin is also affected by flood events that cause major losses to lives, properties, and economies. Understanding each of these periods of water scarcity and water abundance can help water managers to design adaptation strategies that cope with these two extremes while still...
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During the severe drought of 2010-2015, several communities in southeast Oklahoma almost ran out of water. Some of these communities rely on streams and rivers as their sole source of water and when these sources almost ran dry, it left them searching for alternatives and wondering how to continue growing, economically, with this water uncertainty. The possibility of climate change has these communities further concerned, primarily because they do not know what to expect. Previously, the USGS, both Chickasaw and Choctaw Nations collaborated on a project to apply a range of possible climate change scenarios to the Red River watershed to determine future water availability. This study will focus specifically on southeast...
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Tribal communities are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their reliance on the natural environment to sustain traditional activities and their limited resources to respond to climate change impacts. At the same time, tribes have valuable traditional knowledge that can aid regional efforts to address climate change. There were two overarching goals of this project: The first was to build partnerships between South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) researchers and tribal communities, linking tribes with climate change tools and resources and developing a model that could be replicated in other regions. The second goal was to document tribal viewpoints on climate change impacts...
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Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but a changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these enhanced stressors requires that farmers, ranchers, and wildlife managers have the necessary information and resources to guide adaptive management decisions. Not only do they need better forecasts of drought severity, but also an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale. To provide these resources, this project proposes to document and map climate change vulnerability of major grasslands and wetlands on the southern Great Plains...
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Karst aquifers—formed when the movement of water dissolves bedrock—are critical groundwater resources in North America. Water moving through these aquifers carves out magnificent caves, sinkholes, and other formations. These formations are home to high concentrations of rare and endangered species, but the hydrological conditions that support these species can change rapidly. Managing these ecosystems into the future requires a better understanding of how climate, hydrology, and karst ecosystems interact. The objective of this project was to determine how species and ecosystems associated with karst might respond to future temperature and precipitation extremes and accompanying changes in groundwater levels and...
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The South Central CASC supports several graduate students in their Masters and Doctoral research through providing salary support as well as intellectual support. Each student is part of a broad team of researchers who examine issues relevant to the CASC through funding from a host of federal and state agencies (e.g., USDA, NOAA, NSF, state departments of wildlife conservation or water resources). The students support the mission of the South Central CASC and their work is highlighted here through publications and other related products.
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To support cultural resources and better understand the regional implications of climate change, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has found it critical to be directly engaged in research activities with the Federally recognized Tribes across the South Central United States. The South Central CASC Tribal Sustainability Science Manager will engage in scientific research that addresses Tribal needs for adaptive management and sustainability in the South-Central U.S. through an a extended network of connections to Tribal governments. This work is key to enhancing the Trust relationship of the Tribes with the Department of the Interior. This project will provide supplemental support for the...
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Flooding in urban centers caused by increasingly severe storms has led to massive economic, social, and ecological damage. Researchers supported by this South Central CASC project will examine flood vulnerability and equity in mitigation efforts in Harris County, Texas, currently home to the highest concentration of federally funded relocation projects in the country. The resulting flood vulnerability assessments from this project will guide future investments in flood-prone areas, reducing risk equitably and strengthening community resilience. The US is experiencing more frequent and intense precipitation events, largely driven by climate change. These storms have caused severe flooding, leading to billions of...
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In previous climate trainings conducted for tribes and pueblos in Oklahoma and New Mexico, impacts to water resources have emerged as a priority concern. Building on the success of past South Central CSC trainings such as Climate 101, this project will provide opportunities for water managers from 20 tribes to exchange knowledge in a series of workshops. These workshops, some virtual and some face-to-face, will allow water management professionals to discuss emerging issues with climate scientists, cultivate a community of practice, and increase their capacity for successful climate adaptation. Through the workshops, water resource professionals will collaborate to understand the latest developments in climate...
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Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities are highly productive ecosystems that provide significant ecological benefits to coastal areas, including essential calories for wintering waterfowl. However, the potential effects of sea-level rise is posing new questions about the future availability of SAV for waterfowl and other coastal wildlife. Of primary concern is the fact that rising seas have the potential to increase salinities in fresh and brackish marshes on the Gulf of Mexico’s coast, changing the distribution and composition of SAV communities, and affecting valuable waterfowl habitat and food resources. Not enough is known about the relationship between salinity and SAV to predict how this important...
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Led by members of the South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) consortium, this project builds upon the successes of the 2014 and 2016 trainings to develop and implement professional development training for graduate students, postdocs, and early-career researchers within the SC CSC region. The objectives were: (1) introduce a new cohort of early-career researchers to the research challenges of the SC CSC, offering them insight into how their research fits into the broader priorities of the SC CSC and applicability to end user needs; (2) facilitate interdisciplinary interactions to discuss research with peers and foster collaborative opportunities; and (3) generate a syllabus, knowledge tests, and specific...
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Led by the consortium of the South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC), this project developed and implemented a professional development workshop for graduate students, post-docs, and early career researchers within the SC CSC region. The objectives were to: (1) introduce participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the SC-CSC and its place within the U.S. Department of the Interior and the larger CSC network, offering them insight into how their research fits into the broader research priority goals and its eventual applicability to end user needs across the region; (2) provide an opportunity for participants to present their research to fellow peers; (3) facilitate interdisciplinary...
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Hydrologic drought and declining water availability are among the foremost stressors of stream ecosystems in the Red River basin. Resource managers face the challenge of apportioning scarce water resources among competing uses, but they lack a systematic framework for comparing the costs and benefits of proposed water management decisions and conservation actions. In 2016, Co-PIs Neeson and Moreno were funded by the Great Plains LCC to develop a decision support model for identifying the most cost-effective water conservation alternatives across the Red River basin. Here, we propose to extend this optimization model in three significant ways to support cost-effective conservation decisions in the face of climate...
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Many inland bodies of water in western Louisiana are receiving too much sediment and nutrient pollution from upstream which has caused declines in the health of many fisheries. These bodies of water include many traditional lake-based fisheries of the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana (CTL), and fisheries used by visitors, providing critical tourism and economic development dollars to the region. The goal of the Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) is to study the long-term health and ecology of fisheries and water bodies in west-central Louisiana. This project will be a collaboration between leaders and scientists from the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, Louisiana State University and Florida State University...
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Climate change threatens many functions of wetlands and habitat connectivity for migratory shorebirds who use wetlands across the Southern Great Plains. Researchers supported by this South Central CASC project will survey stakeholders in the region, project climate impacts on wetland-dependent birds, and create tools for conservation planning (e.g., ranking wetland importance to shorebirds). Results from this project will be used to improve wetland resilience, habitat connectivity, and ecosystem services. Functioning wetlands buffer against threats like drought, flooding, and pollution. However, climate change is degrading these wetland functions, including wildlife movement corridors that connect wetlands and...
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The South Central CASC has made it a priority to focus on working with the many Tribes and Pueblos located within their region. Many of these Tribes and Pueblos have already experienced the effects of climate change and have found ways to adapt over time. With Tribes and Pueblos representing a major landowner group in the region having a significant role in water management due to tribal treaty water rights, it is crucial that they be involved in CASC work. The Chickasaw Nation and the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma became consortium members at the South Central CASC conception. Under this arrangement, the South Central CASC employs a full-time Tribal Liaison through the Chickasaw Nation and a New Mexico Tribal Liaison...
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Estuaries support valuable recreation, fisheries, and aquaculture and are dependent on healthy and vibrant ecosystems. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, estuaries sustain local economies through their high productivity. They also receive over 50% of the United States watershed discharge, and water quality within these estuaries is impacted by local management actions. Within these estuaries, eastern oysters serve as both a critical fishery and ecosystem engineers, providing vital habitat and filtering water which improves water quality. Ensuring resilient oyster populations is critical to the functioning of these estuaries, which support many species such as blue crabs, brown shrimps, and white shrimps. However,...
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Global climate models (GCMs) are a tool used to model historical climate and project future conditions. In order to apply these global-scale datasets to answer local- and regional-scale climate questions, GCMs undergo a process known as “downscaling”. Since there are many different approaches to downscaling there associated sources of uncertainty; however, downscaled data can be highly valuable for management decision-making if used with a knowledge of its limitations and appropriate applications. In order to use downscaled data appropriately, scientists and managers need to understand how the climate projections made by various downscaling methods are affected by uncertainties in the climate system (such as greenhouse...
map background search result map search result map Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S. Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Workshop Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability Developing and Analyzing Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the South Central U.S. Improving Predictions of Water Supply in the Rio Grande under Changing Climate Conditions Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training III Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River Evaluation of Sustainable Water Availability in Drought Prone Watersheds in Southeastern Oklahoma The Effects of Wildfire on Snow Water Resources under Multiple Climate Conditions Cultivating a Climate Science Learning Community Amongst Tribal Water Managers Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin A Roadmap for Developing Resilient Coastal Shellfish Populations: Using Spatial and Process-Based Modelling for Restoration Under Current and Predicted Future Water Quality Conditions Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Tribal Engagement Program Graduate Student Projects Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) Using Archaeological and Ecological Perspectives Identifying Opportunities to Strengthen Climate Resilience in Flood-Prone Underserved Communities in Harris County, Texas The Effects of Wildfire on Snow Water Resources under Multiple Climate Conditions Identifying Opportunities to Strengthen Climate Resilience in Flood-Prone Underserved Communities in Harris County, Texas Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) Using Archaeological and Ecological Perspectives Improving Predictions of Water Supply in the Rio Grande under Changing Climate Conditions Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River Evaluation of Sustainable Water Availability in Drought Prone Watersheds in Southeastern Oklahoma Cultivating a Climate Science Learning Community Amongst Tribal Water Managers Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies A Roadmap for Developing Resilient Coastal Shellfish Populations: Using Spatial and Process-Based Modelling for Restoration Under Current and Predicted Future Water Quality Conditions Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training III Tribal Engagement Program Graduate Student Projects Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S. Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Workshop Developing and Analyzing Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the South Central U.S.