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During the severe drought of 2010-2015, several communities in southeast Oklahoma almost ran out of water. Some of these communities rely on streams and rivers as their sole source of water and when these sources almost ran dry, it left them searching for alternatives and wondering how to continue growing, economically, with this water uncertainty. The possibility of climate change has these communities further concerned, primarily because they do not know what to expect. Previously, the USGS, both Chickasaw and Choctaw Nations collaborated on a project to apply a range of possible climate change scenarios to the Red River watershed to determine future water availability. This study will focus specifically on southeast...
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On its southbound course from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, the Rio Grande provides water resources for more than 13 million people. The quantity of water flowing into the northern section of the river depends on how much snowpack from the Rocky Mountains melts into runoff and on seasonal precipitation rates. Models describing the relationship between winter snowpack quantity and springtime snowmelt runoff quantities for the basin are combined with models describing long-term natural variation in precipitation to create water supply outlooks. The outlooks developed by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service are currently used by stakeholders to make critical water allocation decisions in the basin. Improvements...
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Ensuring the long-term sustainability of water resources requires careful stewardship of water for societal uses (i.e. municipal, agricultural, and industrial sectors) and also for the many other benefits that aquatic ecosystems provide to humans. In particular, reservoir fisheries and river ecosystems provide a range of economic, cultural, and recreational benefits. Maximizing the benefits that we receive from water will entail balancing societal uses, reservoir storage, and river flows. Climate change is expected to complicate the challenge of finding a balance among these three dimensions of water sustainability. To navigate these challenges, stakeholders need frameworks for simultaneously predicting the...
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Tribal communities are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their reliance on the natural environment to sustain traditional activities and their limited resources to respond to climate change impacts. At the same time, tribes have valuable traditional knowledge that can aid regional efforts to address climate change. There were two overarching goals of this project: The first was to build partnerships between South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) researchers and tribal communities, linking tribes with climate change tools and resources and developing a model that could be replicated in other regions. The second goal was to document tribal viewpoints on climate change impacts...
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Karst aquifers—formed when the movement of water dissolves bedrock—are critical groundwater resources in North America. Water moving through these aquifers carves out magnificent caves, sinkholes, and other formations. These formations are home to high concentrations of rare and endangered species, but the hydrological conditions that support these species can change rapidly. Managing these ecosystems into the future requires a better understanding of how climate, hydrology, and karst ecosystems interact. The objective of this project was to determine how species and ecosystems associated with karst might respond to future temperature and precipitation extremes and accompanying changes in groundwater levels and...
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The South Central CASC supports several graduate students in their Masters and Doctoral research through providing salary support as well as intellectual support. Each student is part of a broad team of researchers who examine issues relevant to the CASC through funding from a host of federal and state agencies (e.g., USDA, NOAA, NSF, state departments of wildlife conservation or water resources). The students support the mission of the South Central CASC and their work is highlighted here through publications and other related products.
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To support cultural resources and better understand the regional implications of climate change, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has found it critical to be directly engaged in research activities with the Federally recognized Tribes across the South Central United States. The South Central CASC Tribal Sustainability Science Manager will engage in scientific research that addresses Tribal needs for adaptive management and sustainability in the South-Central U.S. through an a extended network of connections to Tribal governments. This work is key to enhancing the Trust relationship of the Tribes with the Department of the Interior. This project will provide supplemental support for the...
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Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but a changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these enhanced stressors requires that farmers, ranchers, and wildlife managers have the necessary information and resources to guide adaptive management decisions. Not only do they need better forecasts of drought severity, but also an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale. To provide these resources, this project proposes to document and map climate change vulnerability of major grasslands and wetlands on the southern Great Plains...
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Hydrologic drought and declining water availability are among the foremost stressors of stream ecosystems in the Red River basin. Resource managers face the challenge of apportioning scarce water resources among competing uses, but they lack a systematic framework for comparing the costs and benefits of proposed water management decisions and conservation actions. In 2016, Co-PIs Neeson and Moreno were funded by the Great Plains LCC to develop a decision support model for identifying the most cost-effective water conservation alternatives across the Red River basin. Here, we propose to extend this optimization model in three significant ways to support cost-effective conservation decisions in the face of climate...
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Many inland bodies of water in western Louisiana are receiving too much sediment and nutrient pollution from upstream which has caused declines in the health of many fisheries. These bodies of water include many traditional lake-based fisheries of the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana (CTL), and fisheries used by visitors, providing critical tourism and economic development dollars to the region. The goal of the Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) is to study the long-term health and ecology of fisheries and water bodies in west-central Louisiana. This project will be a collaboration between leaders and scientists from the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, Louisiana State University and Florida State University...
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Led by members of the South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) consortium, this project builds upon the successes of the 2014 and 2016 trainings to develop and implement professional development training for graduate students, postdocs, and early-career researchers within the SC CSC region. The objectives were: (1) introduce a new cohort of early-career researchers to the research challenges of the SC CSC, offering them insight into how their research fits into the broader priorities of the SC CSC and applicability to end user needs; (2) facilitate interdisciplinary interactions to discuss research with peers and foster collaborative opportunities; and (3) generate a syllabus, knowledge tests, and specific...
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In previous climate trainings conducted for tribes and pueblos in Oklahoma and New Mexico, impacts to water resources have emerged as a priority concern. Building on the success of past South Central CSC trainings such as Climate 101, this project will provide opportunities for water managers from 20 tribes to exchange knowledge in a series of workshops. These workshops, some virtual and some face-to-face, will allow water management professionals to discuss emerging issues with climate scientists, cultivate a community of practice, and increase their capacity for successful climate adaptation. Through the workshops, water resource professionals will collaborate to understand the latest developments in climate...
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Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities are highly productive ecosystems that provide significant ecological benefits to coastal areas, including essential calories for wintering waterfowl. However, the potential effects of sea-level rise is posing new questions about the future availability of SAV for waterfowl and other coastal wildlife. Of primary concern is the fact that rising seas have the potential to increase salinities in fresh and brackish marshes on the Gulf of Mexico’s coast, changing the distribution and composition of SAV communities, and affecting valuable waterfowl habitat and food resources. Not enough is known about the relationship between salinity and SAV to predict how this important...
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Led by the consortium of the South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC), this project developed and implemented a professional development workshop for graduate students, post-docs, and early career researchers within the SC CSC region. The objectives were to: (1) introduce participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the SC-CSC and its place within the U.S. Department of the Interior and the larger CSC network, offering them insight into how their research fits into the broader research priority goals and its eventual applicability to end user needs across the region; (2) provide an opportunity for participants to present their research to fellow peers; (3) facilitate interdisciplinary...
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Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about potential future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An effective forward-looking fire science synthesis is urgently required to reflect the changing dimensions of human fire management, recognizing that fire causes, effects, impacts, and management are all interrelated...
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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This feature class contains salt water polygons. The Forest shoreline originated from the cartographic feature files (CFF). All small islands not in the CFF were digitzed from 1:63,360 paper quads. Columbia Bay was replaced in 1993 with arcs digitized from 1990 CNF aerial photos (approx. scale 1:31680). Valdez Arm and Prince Wiilliam Sound (PWS) are closed with artificial arcs to create the salt water polygon for PWS.
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The south-central U.S. has a unique and complex topography that results in a strong precipitation gradient from the arid west to the humid east. Stakeholders and partners of the South Central CASC require climate projections about how these conditions may change to provide critical information for impact assessments and climate adaptation planning efforts related to their unique needs. For example, stakeholders and partners of the South Central CASC have identified a critical need for guidance about future water scarcity and wildfire frequency. While the South Central CASC has already produced climate projections for this region, a new generation of climate models that represent an updated scientific understanding...
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Global climate models (GCMs) are a tool used to model historical climate and project future conditions. In order to apply these global-scale datasets to answer local- and regional-scale climate questions, GCMs undergo a process known as “downscaling”. Since there are many different approaches to downscaling there associated sources of uncertainty; however, downscaled data can be highly valuable for management decision-making if used with a knowledge of its limitations and appropriate applications. In order to use downscaled data appropriately, scientists and managers need to understand how the climate projections made by various downscaling methods are affected by uncertainties in the climate system (such as greenhouse...
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Led by universities of the South Central CASC, this project builds on the successes of three prior workshops to mentor a cohort of early-career environmental professionals in the South Central U.S. to serve as part of the next generation of USGS leaders and partners. The workshop objectives are to: (1) develop the participants’ knowledge, leadership skills, and interdisciplinary collaboration with an eye toward filling future USGS (or partner organization) positions; (2) introduce participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the South Central CASC and the larger CASC network; (3) guide participants to discuss their research beyond their disciplinary niche and with managers across...
map background search result map search result map Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S. Chugach National Forest Shoreline Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Workshop Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability Developing and Analyzing Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the South Central U.S. Improving Predictions of Water Supply in the Rio Grande under Changing Climate Conditions Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training III Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River Evaluation of Sustainable Water Availability in Drought Prone Watersheds in Southeastern Oklahoma Cultivating a Climate Science Learning Community Amongst Tribal Water Managers State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training IV Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Graduate Student Projects Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Enhancing a Spatial Planning Tool to Inform Management of Reservoir Fisheries, Stream Flows, and Societal Water Needs in the Red River Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) Using Archaeological and Ecological Perspectives Creating the Next Generation of Climate Projections for the South-Central United States Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) Using Archaeological and Ecological Perspectives Improving Predictions of Water Supply in the Rio Grande under Changing Climate Conditions Chugach National Forest Shoreline Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River Evaluation of Sustainable Water Availability in Drought Prone Watersheds in Southeastern Oklahoma Cultivating a Climate Science Learning Community Amongst Tribal Water Managers Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability Enhancing a Spatial Planning Tool to Inform Management of Reservoir Fisheries, Stream Flows, and Societal Water Needs in the Red River Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training III Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training IV Graduate Student Projects Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S. Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Workshop Developing and Analyzing Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the South Central U.S. Creating the Next Generation of Climate Projections for the South-Central United States State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate