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Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast droughts up to 18 months in advance with information about their expected timing and intensity. Developed for all climate divisions in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, these drought models rely on input from predictor variables associated with global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. However, it is unclear...
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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The Rio Grande is naturally a water-scarce basin in which droughts have been classified as severe (with almost no rain during some years) and extended (lasting more than 10, or even 15 years). Severe and persistent droughts in the Rio Grande basin reduce water availability, which triggers economic, environmental, and social impacts, and affects compliance with interstate compacts and international treaty commitments. In contrast, the Rio Grande basin is also affected by flood events that cause major losses to lives, properties, and economies. Understanding each of these periods of water scarcity and water abundance can help water managers to design adaptation strategies that cope with these two extremes while still...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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The Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana and Texas faces threats from increasingly destructive extreme weather, heat, subsidence, and coastal erosion. Inland areas also face stronger storms, floods, and shifts in land development patterns. Increasing drought and extreme heat in Texas and New Mexico also exacerbate fires and floods. All of these regions are culturally rich, rapidly changing areas where people are working across political boundaries and organizations to protect and adapt people’s lifeways, sites and artifacts, and culturally important species, places and landscapes. This project will produce an action plan that describes ongoing efforts and identifies gaps in research and funding for cultural preservation...
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The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas provides water resources to more than 2 million people and is home to eight federally listed threatened and endangered species that are dependent on spring flow from the aquifer for survival. Recent results from global climate models indicate that over the next several decades increases in annual average temperatures and evapotranspiration are likely in this semi-arid region. Decision makers and water resource planners need to have a robust scientific understanding of the impacts of future climate conditions on the Edwards Aquifer system to assess future management strategies needed to maintain water availability and ensure adequate spring flow for protected species....
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The greater Mississippi River Basin drains 3.2 million square kilometers of land and spans 31 U.S. states. Ninety percent of all U.S. agricultural exports are grown in the Mississippi River Basin, and about 40 percent of the nation's total exports are transported through its major rivers. About 1.3 million people, accounting for $405 billion in annual revenues, work in river-related jobs across the basin. Ecologically, the Mississippi River Basin supports about 100 amphibious, reptile, and mammal species and provides habitat for almost 250 fish and 50 mussel species. Its floodplain supports about 40 percent of North America’s wading birds and waterfowl and over 180 National Wildlife Refuges. Yet, even with engineered...
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Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but a changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these enhanced stressors requires that farmers, ranchers, and wildlife managers have the necessary information and resources to guide adaptive management decisions. Not only do they need better forecasts of drought severity, but also an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale. To provide these resources, this project proposes to document and map climate change vulnerability of major grasslands and wetlands on the southern Great Plains...
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The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB’s rivers transport 40% of the nation’s total exports. Dozens of different cultures are scattered across the MRB with different policy structures, worldviews, and economic strengths. The heterogeneity in the environmental and socio-cultural settings across the MRB poses a challenge to climate adaptation and actionable resource management recommendations. Yet climate change has disrupted...
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Water availability in the upper Rio Grande Basin is dependent on winter and monsoon season precipitation. Consecutive years of drought and above average temperatures have diminished water supply and increased demand for water in this region. The increasing gap between water supply and demand is cause for concern. Climate projections for the southwestern and south central United States suggest that temperatures will continue to increase, affecting seasonal precipitation and water availability. To better manage current water supply and prepare for possible future changes, water managers need projections of future streamflow and landscape conditions that may affect future water supply. The project researchers are...
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Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize the destruction of ecological communities, threats of future flooding, and extensive damages by lessening the intensity of future wildfires. Although safe burning practices can largely minimize the risks, prescribed burns may bring some degree of concern among practitioners. The real and perceived risks may include bodily...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has several Communities of Practice (CoPs) focused on resource manager needs across the region (e.g. understanding at-risk species and ecosystems, building resilient coastal ecosystems, extreme weather and climate change, etc.). Each CoP has expertise in the subject matter and has been working on projects that are relevant to the resource community, including conducting literature reviews and small-scale pilot projects. The current research project will leverage the expertise of the existing CoPs to enhance the content available through the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) as identified through the partnership between the South Central...
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The United States National Park Service (NPS) declared climate change as “the greatest threat to the integrity of our national parks that we have ever experienced.” Climate change is causing not only higher average temperatures in most places but also increasing the severity of storms, the number of heatwaves and wildfires, and causing heavier rainfall. These extreme weather conditions pose major threats to National Parks, which face the loss of wildlife, plants, and important historical and cultural sites. To prevent further loss of our country’s natural and cultural heritage in the next 20 years, plans, strategies, and actions are needed now, rather than for 50-100 years into the future. This research team will...
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Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, and water quality issues. These events can be costly for society. In response, many land managers are using forest thinning and prescribed burning practices to reduce disturbance impacts, especially those that are caused by high-severity wildfire. In contrast to the wealth of research on the advantages of forest thinning...
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The Rio Grande provides drinking water for more than six million people, irrigation water for two million acres of land in the United States and Mexico, and supports riparian ecosystems that are home to endangered species like the ocelot and Rio Grande silvery minnow. Climate variability and anthropogenic activities continue to stress this already limited water resource. This project was developed in response to a request from a group of stakeholders who work in the Basin and represent federal, state and local agencies, private industry, farmers, ranchers, and NGOs. These stakeholders identified the need for a comprehensive data resource that spatially depicts where conservation activities are occurring on the ground....
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Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are expected to continue or even accelerate, it is important to evaluate megafire risks and locate high-risk areas. This project will develop a new Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) and make future projections of megafire probability in Oklahoma and Texas from 2024 to 2100. Outcomes and products from this project will...
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Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this...
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Extreme weather events (such as floods, ice storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes) are increasing in frequency and causing severe consequences throughout the U.S. and particularly in Louisiana. These natural disasters are especially devastating for farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the environment. Most climate research and extension outreach focus on large-scale farmers and tend to reach White farmers who outnumber other farming communities, often failing to connect with smallholding and African American farmers. While these farmers make up less of the total agricultural population and economy, they are a critical part of the agricultural and ecological systems and a crucial component in building sustainable...
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In the Western U.S., approximately 65% of the water supply comes from forested regions with most of the water that feeds local rivers coming from snowmelt that originates in mountain forests. The Rio Grande headwaters (I.e. the primary water generating region of the Rio Grande river) is experiencing large changes to the landscape primarily from forest fires and bark beetle infestations. Already, 85% of the coniferous forests in this region have been affected by the bark beetle, and projections indicate greater changes will occur as temperatures increase. In this area, most of the precipitation falls as snow in the winter, reaches a maximum depth in the late spring, and melts away due to warmer temperatures by early...
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The warming climate combined with a century of fuel build up (i.e. burnable plant materials found in the forest) due to fire suppression are driving megafires that threaten life and property and are severely altering ecosystems. Many of these fires are converting large areas of forest to shrub fields or grasslands, termed “ecological transformations.” Although uncharacteristically severe fires are contributing to these changes, lower intensity fire is a key ecological process that sustains native ecosystems, increases ecological resilience, and guides climate change adaptation. Planned fires (e.g., prescribed fire) are the most efficient management activity that can be performed at scales large enough to address...
map background search result map search result map Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin Mapping Conservation Management Efforts to Increase Coordination in the Rio Grande Basin Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Estimating the Future Effects of Forest Disturbance on Snow Water Resources in a Changing Environment Assessing Future Climate Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Groundwater Dependent Species in the Edwards Aquifer Region Using a Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework Using Precipitation Climatology to Examine the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events of the Mississippi River Basin Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Needs and Adaptation Practices of Smallholding and African American Farmers Facing Extreme Weather Events in Louisiana The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Future of Aquatic Flows in the South Central U.S.: Toward Sustainable Water Management in the Mississippi River Basin Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Planning Grant: Understanding the Impacts of Extreme Events on Our National Parks: Past, Present, and Future Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Needs and Adaptation Practices of Smallholding and African American Farmers Facing Extreme Weather Events in Louisiana Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Assessing Future Climate Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Groundwater Dependent Species in the Edwards Aquifer Region Using a Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin Mapping Conservation Management Efforts to Increase Coordination in the Rio Grande Basin Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Planning Grant: Understanding the Impacts of Extreme Events on Our National Parks: Past, Present, and Future Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Using Precipitation Climatology to Examine the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events of the Mississippi River Basin Future of Aquatic Flows in the South Central U.S.: Toward Sustainable Water Management in the Mississippi River Basin State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country