Climate Change Impacts to Migratory Birds: Development of a Climate-informed Integrated Population Model

Start Date

2016-09-01

End Date

2019-05-01

Release Date

2016

Effective conservation of migratory birds depends on a clear understanding of how environmental factors affect key demographic rates (e.g., survival and reproduction). This need is especially pressing in the context of climate change: climate change is expected to affect migratory bird habitat and populations in multiple ways, and a mechanistic understanding of how demographic rates are related to climate variables will help managers to better anticipate and manage these changes. The Institute for Bird Populations (IBP) will address these questions by using data from MAPS (Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship), the longest running continent-wide monitoring program to provide information on migratory bird demographics (recruitment, survival, immigration, and emigration). Data collected through MAPS is used to clarify the factors driving population declines; to determine priority areas to target for conservation and restoration; and to clarify relationships between demographic trends and environmental factors. By combining MAPS data with additional data sources on climate variables, population trends, and occupancy data, researchers at IBP will collaborate with the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center to develop a climate-informed integrated population model. Producing such a model will allow for a clearer understanding of how climate change is likely to affect species survival by clarifying relationships between climate variables and demographic parameters. Ultimately, this research will provide the management community with a mechanistic understanding of how climate change may impact migratory bird population levels and ultimately species survival.

ScienceBase WMS

• National CASC
• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers