Understanding Changes to the Timing of Natural Events (Phenology) for Plants in the Water-Limited Southwest

Principal Investigator

Seth Munson

Start Date

2017-07-17

End Date

2019-04-30

Release Date

2017

Type: Web Link

Phenology, the study of seasonal natural phenomena — the timing of bird migrations or plant flowering, for example — has become a ‘leading indicator’ of climate change impacts, in large part because phenological events are among the most sensitive biological responses to climate change. Across the globe, many spring events are occurring earlier — and fall events later — than they did in the past. However, not all species and regions are changing at the same rate, which can lead to mismatches. Many interactions in nature depend on timing and, as such, phenology affects nearly all aspects of the environment, including the abundance, distribution, and diversity of organisms, ecosystem services, food webs, even global water and carbon cycles. One significant barrier to progress in advancing our understanding and utilization of phenology information entails the ability of the existing models to represent phenological change at more local scales, where decisions are being made. The work described in this proposal represents a critical first step in addressing this need. We propose to transfer well-established methods used to develop models of phenology to the Southwest region specifically. In a sense, we expect to ‘downscale’ and calibrate models to the unique environment and species of the Southwest. Because we will work closely with stakeholders from the very beginning, we can make a reasonable promise to deliver information that not only advances the science, but makes the science immediately relevant and useful.

ScienceBase WMS

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• Southwest CASC