Seasonal Future Prescribed Burn Windows for the Southeast United States 2010-2099 RCP 4.5
Dates
Publication Date
2021-09-20
Start Date
2100
End Date
2099
Citation
Kupfer, J.A., Terando, A.J., Gao, P., and Tirpak, B.E., 2021, Historical and Future Prescribed Burn Windows for the Southeast United States: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P95BV7GE.
Summary
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria are met. This dataset contains results from a study examining the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the southeastern United States. A set of burn window criteria (suitable weather conditions within which burning may occur based on maximum daily temperature, daily average relative humidity, and daily average wind speed), were applied to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCM) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, as well as past observations for comparison. Data are provided as decadal [...]
Summary
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria are met. This dataset contains results from a study examining the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the southeastern United States. A set of burn window criteria (suitable weather conditions within which burning may occur based on maximum daily temperature, daily average relative humidity, and daily average wind speed), were applied to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCM) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, as well as past observations for comparison. Data are provided as decadal output for observed conditions, and for individual GCM results for the historical climate scenario and the two future climate scenarios are provided. In addition, summary statistics (e.g., multi-model mean, and for selected quantiles) are provided for the GCM ensemble as a whole by decade.
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Seasonal Modeled future burn RCP45.xml Original FGDC Metadata
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Purpose
Prescribed fire is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (i.e. a 'burn window') are met. Given climate change projections and projected changes in key environmental factors that constrain prescribed burning, it is clear that predicting the future of fire will require a better understanding of whether environmental criteria defined by managers who conduct prescribed fires can still be met. Gaining this understanding is especially important because the use of prescribed fire is now so widespread in the United States that the total area burned annually by prescribed fires often exceeds that burned by wildfires. This dataset assesses how opportunities for prescribed burning would be influenced by projected changes in climate with a focus on the southeastern U.S. This data models future conditions as decadal averages by season by ensemble General Circulation Models for 2 climate scenarios for 2010-2099.
