Projected open water seasons using four global climate models for 2011 to 2100 fronting Arey Lagoon and Barter Island, Alaska
Dates
Publication Date
2020-12-07
Start Date
1981-01-01
End Date
2100-12-31
Citation
Erikson, L.H., Gibbs, A.E., Richmond, B.M., Jones, B.M., Storlazzi, C.D., and Ohman, K.A., 2020, Modeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards, and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LGYO2Q.
Summary
Estimated start date, end date, and duration of open water at a location fronting Barter Island, Alaska derived from projected sea ice extents in 4 global climate models: MIROC5, BCC-CSM1.1, INM-CM4, and GFDL-ESM2M. Starting and ending dates are when sea ice retreated or is projected to retreat offshore by more than 80 kilometers fronting Barter Island. Projected coastal storm events were derived by downscaling atmospheric conditions of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario with the MIROC5 global climate model (GCM). Sea ice retreat distances were estimated from 4 separate GCMs: MIROC5, BCC-CSM1.1, INM-CM4, GFDL-CM3.
Summary
Estimated start date, end date, and duration of open water at a location fronting Barter Island, Alaska derived from projected sea ice extents in 4 global climate models: MIROC5, BCC-CSM1.1, INM-CM4, and GFDL-ESM2M. Starting and ending dates are when sea ice retreated or is projected to retreat offshore by more than 80 kilometers fronting Barter Island. Projected coastal storm events were derived by downscaling atmospheric conditions of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario with the MIROC5 global climate model (GCM). Sea ice retreat distances were estimated from 4 separate GCMs: MIROC5, BCC-CSM1.1, INM-CM4, GFDL-CM3.
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Related External Resources
Type: Related Primary Publication
Erikson, L.H., Gibbs, A.E., Richmond, B.M., Storlazzi, C.D., Jones, B.M., and Ohman, K.A., 2020, Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File report 2020-1142
Data were generated to estimate future ocean storm conditions (magnitude and frequency), coastal flooding potentials, and barrier island migration rates, for the 21st century and assess changes with respect to past conditions.
