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The amount of water flowing through a stream is an important driver of aquatic habitat, but scientists don’t often measure streamflow in the small stream networks that feed larger rivers. Monitoring smaller streams is especially important as climate change is causing them to (a) flood more often and more intensely, and (b) lose habitat as drought events and water temperatures increase. A better understanding of the changing patterns of flow and temperatures in small streams can help decision makers evaluate which streams will provide suitable habitat for plants and animals under a changing climate. Specific goals of this project are to 1) understand how water flow and temperature interact in small streams and 2)...
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Negative human-bear interactions are a common problem and management priority for many wildlife agencies in North America. Bears are adaptable to anthropogenic activity and food sources which creates opportunities for conflict with humans, including property damage, livestock depredation, and in severe cases, human injury. Acute climate events and long-term directional climate change can exacerbate the frequency and severity of human-bear interactions by changing resource availability, increasing overlap between humans and wildlife, and driving competition. Despite the pervasive threat that climate change poses, studies evaluating climate, human-wildlife interactions, and adaptive management strategies are limited....
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The smallmouth bass (SMB) is a widespread species with a distribution that extends throughout the eastern and central U.S., in addition to introduced populations in other regions. From a management perspective, the SMB is important both as a popular sport fish and as a threat to native species where it is present outside of its natural range. Understanding the population-level responses of this species to environmental change is thus a priority for fisheries resource managers. This project aimed to explicitly model the impacts of projected climate and land use change on the growth, population dynamics, and distribution of stream-dwelling SMB in the U.S. Impacts on growth and demographic variables were modeled using...
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This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled climate projections because of the multiple methodologies used to produce them and the time-consuming process required to obtain model output. In response, the research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date...
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We are seeking to better understand networks among resource managers with respect to developing plans for climate change adaptation. We are pursuing this through a network analysis based on a survey of federal resource management staff and scientists in the southwestern and Midwestern U.S. Originally planned, this study was conceived to cover the Southwest and North Central Climate Science Centers, as defined by the USGS. In practice, surveys are most easily distributed within regions as defined by the federal resource agencies. Unfortunately, there is no uniform set of regions. We have tried to be comprehensive in our survey and cover at least the North Central and Southwestern Region.
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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The purpose of this grant was to provide research opportunities to students and staff working with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) with a focus on decision analysis and science communication. Research activities occured primarily within the framework of existing SE CSC-funded projects. Student research supported project activities associated with the development and use of science-based information to make climate adaptation management decisions. Student abilities to participate in these research activities were enhanced by participation in a course entitled “Introduction to Structured Decision Making” taught at the National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) in Shepherdstown, WV. In addition to participation...
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Species are adapted to particular environmental conditions, but are threatened as climate change shifts habitat conditions. One way species can respond is by moving to new suitable locations, known as climate-driven range shifts. But some species can move more easily and/or more quickly than others, and some landscapes are more difficult to cross. In the upper Midwest, the movement potential of many species is reduced by broad expanses of row-crop agriculture, roads and other types of development that fragment the remaining habitat. It is important to sustain and improve connectivity across landscapes so they can continue to support biodiversity and ecosystem services like water filtration, carbon storage, pollinator...
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The Science Issue and Relevance: Coastal wetlands are some of the most productive and valuable habitats in the world. Louisiana contains 40% of the United States’ coastal wetlands, which provide critical habitat for waterfowl and fisheries, as well as many other benefits, such as storm surge protection for coastal communities. In terms of ecosystem services, biological resource production, and infrastructure investments, the value of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands exceeds $100 billion. Thus, stakeholders are gravely concerned about sea-level rise which is causing coastal marsh habitat to convert to open water and resulting in the highest rates of wetland loss in the world, with nearly 1.2 million acres lost since...
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Recently intensifying drought conditions have caused increased stress to non-native tamarisk vegetation across riparian areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter Tribe) and the Upper Gila River watershed in Arizona and New Mexico. This also increases wildfire risk in the area, making the removal of tamarisk vegetation a primary restoration and climate adaptation objective for the Tribe. The research from this project can improve the Tribe’s capacity to map tamarisk and other riparian vegetation, in addition to monitoring the relative condition and water stress of the vegetation in a timely manner. Specifically, the project will help identify where tamarisk is on the reservation and inform restoration actions...
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The NE CASC Fellows Program is a training initiative to develop skills in engagement, communication, and collaboration to help inform climate change adaptation for natural and cultural resources management. Students and postdocs from the NE CASC consortium universities make up the fellows cohort and hail from diverse disciplines, including ecology, engineering, and earth and environmental sciences. Our common goal is to fulfill the mission of the NE CASC, which is to deliver science to help wildlife, ecosystems, and people adapt to a changing climate. Our challenge is to identify and build relationships with stakeholder partners to collaboratively design research that will meet their climate adaptation needs.
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The South Central CASC supports Communities of Practice who are dedicated to finding solutions to the challenges of a changing climate. The Communities of Practice comprise researchers and stakeholders who share a common interest and choose to invest their time in learning from others and developing new collaborations. As of March 2021, the South Central CASC is actively supporting six Communities of Practice. The Communities of Practice members meet together regularly and engage in a formal check-in with South Central CASC staff on a quarterly basis. The groups are also a key part of our Annual Fall Science Meeting where they outline goals and objectives for their group over the next year. The topics of interest...
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The sagebrush rangelands of the Great Basin provide crucial habitat for a diversity of wildlife, including the pronghorn and the greater sage-grouse. These water-limited, highly-managed ecosystems have already been degraded by wildfires, the expansion of invasive grasses, and livestock grazing, and are expected to experience additional stress as climate and land use conditions change. Effective management of sagebrush ecosystems in the future will require the ability to understand and predict these future changes. To address this need, researchers will identify historical rates and causes of vegetation change in shrubland ecosystems, then use this information to develop potential future climate and land use scenarios...
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Fruit-producing shrubs such as huckleberries, salal, and hazelnut are an important component of social history and traditional tribal diets in the Pacific Northwest. The fruits of these shrubs are also an important food source for foraging wildlife and pollinators, and serve as the basis for both non-tribal harvesting and small-scale commercial operations. Among land managers and tribes, there is a strong interest in preserving and restoring these culturally important plant species across the Pacific Northwest. However, limited knowledge is available on the current ranges of shrub species, or how climate change will impact future ranges or the timing of flowering and fruiting for key Northwest shrub species. ...
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Within the Yurok Tribe’s territory in northwest California, tribal, public, and private land managers share the overlapping goal of promoting forests that are more resilient to climate-related disturbances through the implementation of forest treatments that are based on traditional tribal knowledge. Managers seek to understand how restoration strategies such as prescribed burning, tree harvesting, and fuel reduction can promote more resilient forests and increase the capacity of forests and human communities to adapt to extreme weather events, drought, fire, and pests and diseases. Very few existing studies of forest vulnerability and resilience have incorporated indigenous or tribal knowledge. In order to promote...
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Riparian systems are critical to the human and ecological communities that interact with them. For the members of San Carlos Apache Tribe, this is particularly true, as riparian systems provide immense cultural and natural values such as ceremonial grounds and recreation areas. However, the riparian areas within the San Carlos Apache Reservation are at risk of degradation due to climate change and land use. Over the past several decades, invasive vegetation, changes in river discharge, and increased wildfire activity have continued to threaten the area’s riparian resources. This project aims to inform riparian restoration efforts by providing products that: identify historic vegetation and river channel properties,...
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There is increasing and broad recognition of the importance of Indigenous and local knowledge in leading climate change adaptation. Indigenous peoples and nations are on the front lines of climate change impacts, yet they are also leading the way in many innovative adaptation actions, such as traditional or cultural burning practices - a form of low-intensity understory-burning that promotes ecosystem health and builds cultural resilience. The overarching goal of this project is to better understand and establish traditional burning as a robust adaptation strategy, based on the practice’s own merits and/or as a complementary approach to other conventional ecosystem restoration practices. Focusing on central California,...
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Wildfire is a natural and essential process in forest ecosystems, but characteristics of fire regimes that have shaped these landscapes over long time scales are changing with climate change and human activities. In some places, changes in fire size, frequency, and severity threaten to degrade essential ecosystem services that produce clean air and water, fertile soil for crop and wood production, and habitat for plant and animal species. Hence, it is urgent to understand how both our actions and inactions contribute to the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and to develop management practices that help sustain and conserve vegetation and wildlife communities in vulnerable forest systems. Our project will address...
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As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer models to simulate complex elements of our climate and their interactions with ecosystems, wildlife, and biodiversity. While an extensive array of general circulation models (GCMs, climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean) exist, there is currently a lack of global biodiversity models. This project...
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California - one of the nation's most populous states - hosts extensive public lands, crown-jewel national parks, and diverse natural resources. Resource managers in federal, state, tribal, and local agencies face challenges due to environmental changes and extreme events such as severe droughts, heat waves, flood events, massive wildfires, and forest dieback. However, state-of-the-art research that could aid in the management of natural resources facing these challenges is typically slow to be applied, owing to limited time and capacity on the part of both researchers and managers. This project aims to accelerate the application of science to resource management by facilitating the translation and synthesis of...
map background search result map search result map Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Climate Impacts on the Locations and Availability of Traditional Food Sources from Native Northwestern Shrubs Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin Improving and Accelerating the Application of Science to Natural Resource Management in California Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Cultural Burning as a Climate Adaptation Strategy Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Communities of Practice Fellows Program Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Assessing Vulnerability of Vegetation and Wildlife Communities to Post-Fire Transformations to Guide Management of Southwestern Pine Forests and Woodlands The Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Human-Bear Interactions in North America Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Climate Impacts on the Locations and Availability of Traditional Food Sources from Native Northwestern Shrubs Improving and Accelerating the Application of Science to Natural Resource Management in California Cultural Burning as a Climate Adaptation Strategy Assessing Vulnerability of Vegetation and Wildlife Communities to Post-Fire Transformations to Guide Management of Southwestern Pine Forests and Woodlands Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast Communities of Practice Fellows Program Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users The Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Human-Bear Interactions in North America Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling