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The stream systems of Hawai‘i are unique and home to many rare species, including five native fish and five native shellfish. These native species have amphidromous life cycles, meaning that they spend part of their lives in the ocean and part in freshwater streams. Stream flow serves as a vital natural pathway, connecting saltwater and freshwater habitats so that these animals can migrate between them and carry out critical life stages (e.g., development, reproduction). Over the last 20 years, the amount of rainfall in Hawai‘i has decreased, and climate models predict that this trend will continue. It is uncertain how reduced rainfall will affect stream flow and, consequently, the native stream species that depend...
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Better understanding of the overall fishery production in river systems around the world may influence general development policies and practices for aquatic systems and sustainable maintenance of an important protein source (particularly for poorer countries where fish are relatively readily available to the local human population). With this study, researchers worked to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the overall fishery production in river networks globally using multivariate statistical models with explanatory variables compiled from remotely sensed and in‐situ observations. The freshwater fish production in rivers was estimated by: 1. Developing models using key drivers (temperature, precipitation,...
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Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation threaten the persistence of the Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. This subspecies appears to be more vulnerable to drought than more northern subspecies, because it occupies small and fragmented streams which are at greater risk of drying up during drought. Most notably, in 2002 drought in the Southwest resulted in the loss of 14 different Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations – about 10% of the total population. While it is known that drought is having an effect on Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the specific ways in which individuals and populations are affected by drought...
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Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on fish have mostly ignored lakes, and focused instead on streams. Because surface waters represent a network of habitats, an integrated assessment of stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for decision-making. This work can be used to inform the preservation of lake/stream...
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Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from...
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Maui’s threatened Haleakalā silversword forms the foundation of a diverse high-elevation community on Haleakalā, and is an ideal species for assessing how this ecosystem is responding to climate change. The silversword’s striking appearance makes it one of Hawaiʻi’s most recognizable species, and it is one of the main attractions drawing 1-2 million tourists to Haleakalā National Park each year. The plant was once considered a conservation success, when active management led to a population recovery in the early 20th century. Unfortunately, silversword populations are now declining, and climate change – namely decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures – is thought to be responsible. The goal of this...
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2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly flammable invasive plants, which can spread across the landscape, providing a widespread fuel source to feed large fires that are hard to control. However, different plant species vary in their flammability, so wildfire risk depends not only on climate, but also on which plants are present. A major concern is that new non-native plants...
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Fire is critical to maintaining and restoring temperate ecosystems in the South Central U.S. As precipitation patterns and temperatures change in the region, managers require information on how these changes will impact fire frequency, and thus the species and ecosystems within the landscape. To address this need, researchers will use climate model data to predict and map future changes in fire frequency for Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Researchers will then examine species and ecosystem distribution data to understand the relationship between climate, fire frequency, and species occurrence. This analysis will enable researchers to identify potential future distributions of woody ecosystems and species such...
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Drought is one of the biggest threats facing our forests today. In the western U.S., severe drought and rising temperatures have caused increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks. Forests are changing rapidly, and while land managers are working to develop long-term climate change adaptation plans, they require tools that can enhance forest resistance to drought now. To address this immediate need, researchers are examining whether a common forest management tool, prescribed fire, can be implemented to help forests better survive drought. Prescribed fire is commonly used in the western U.S. to remove potential wildfire fuel, such as small trees and shrubs. It is also thought that this act of selectively...
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There is a growing realization that current warming trends may be associated with increases in the size, frequency, and severity of forest fires in the West. While rising temperatures can create drought conditions that favor severe fires, it is also possible that drought limits the ability of trees to survive a fire. During a drought, there is less water available for trees and more outbreaks of harmful insects and pathogens can occur, both of which can weaken trees. Tree mortality is one means of measuring the severity of a fire, and evidence shows that trees exposed to drought conditions for periods of 5-10 years are already more sensitive to the effects of fire – suggesting that drought could indeed increase...
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Tribes in the Pacific Northwest rely on plants for food, medicine, and material for culturally important items (e.g., baskets, cages and traps, ceremonial items, tools, and musical instruments). Elders and wisdomkeepers from tribes of the Point No Point Treaty Council have expressed deep concerns about the potential effects of climate change on plant species of key cultural significance, particularly those located in tribal gathering areas on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. This project was a direct response to tribal concerns about the loss of culturally significant plants from tribal gathering areas. Researchers conducted interviews with elders from the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe to identify eight plants...
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Salmonids (a family of fish that includes salmon, trout, and char) are a keystone species for both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and can be an early warning indicator of ecosystem health. Salmonids also have strong societal values and contribute enormously to regional economies and Native American cultures. Today, many native salmonid populations are small, highly fragmented, and isolated from genetic exchange, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disturbances due to their limited ability to adapt through migration. Rising global air temperatures are altering the characteristics of aquatic ecosystems worldwide, including freshwater in the United States. Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species...
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Urbanization in the Southeast U.S. is among the fastest in the nation, and represents a primary threat to threatened and endangered species. As urbanized areas expand, they are encroaching on preserved areas, like national wildlife refuges, and are dividing forests into smaller fragments. Forests that are located next to cities and suburbs are exposed to high temperatures, pollution, insect pests, invasive plants, and other factors that threaten forest health. However, forests located within urban and suburban areas – “urban forests” are capable of supporting diverse plant and animal life, and could play an increasingly important role in conservation as urbanization continues. Little is currently known about how...
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In the Pacific Northwest, cold-water species like salmon are important for recreational sport fishing as well as for commercial fish production. However, climate change is causing lower and warmer summer stream flows that could decimate these fish populations. Aquatic cold-water habitats are further threatened by stormwater runoff, which moves from streets to storm drains and then is often discharged into cold-water rivers and streams. The urban heat island effect (when cities and urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas) may heat the temperature of the runoff and if the runoff is very warm, it could tip salmon habitat into fatal conditions. However, specifically how urban warming – or cooling, such...
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This project identified priority areas in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion to focus on for riverine and riparian habitat conservation. The project’s products are tailored towards the Arid Lands Initiative (ALI) conservation goals and objectives and provide the foundation for adaptation to a changing climate. We adopted a “zoned” approach to identifying focal areas, connectivity management zones, and zones for riparian habitat and ecological representation. Through a series of workshops and webinars, the ALI identified freshwater species for targeted conservation, including Pacific lamprey, bull trout, redband trout, riparian birds and waterfowl, and beavers. The methods to spatially identify a conservation design...
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On Hawai‘i’s mountains, cloud droplets, propelled by strong winds, are deposited on plants, where they accumulate and drip to the ground, adding water over and above that supplied by rainfall. Prior studies show that the amount of intercepted cloud water is substantial, and variable from place to place. Estimates of the spatial patterns of cloud water interception (CWI), the fog-related effects on plants, and the contributions of fog to groundwater recharge and surface water flows are needed to better understand the water cycle and predict effects of climate change on water supply and ecosystems. We will make measurements of fog, wind, fog interception, soil moisture, and fog effects on plant water use and plant...
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The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is an expansive region that covers parts of five Midwestern states and three Canadian provinces. This region contains millions of wetlands in which waterfowl breed and from which 50-80% of the continent's migratory ducks originate each year. Previous modeling efforts indicated that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central PPR to the southeastern portion of the region, an area where the majority of wetlands have been drained. If this future scenario were to materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, more recent research has revealed...
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Agriculture in Alaska is climate-limited. Factors such as low heat energy, short growing seasons, and cold winters prevent the survival of many crops. While considerable research has gone into assessing how to overcome some of these limitations, results suggest that climate change is already altering the equation, and will likely continue to do so. Some research suggests crop production for some varieties might advance northward in the state, leading to increases in yields and new varieties becoming viable. However, it’s also projected that water stress may become an increasing challenge facing farmers. Further, some crops, such as the burgeoning peony market, are dependent on Alaska’s cool climate and late summer...
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Migratory birds play a crucial role in many ecosystems (e.g. as pollinators and insect regulators) and are also valued by many bird watchers throughout the country and world. Effective conservation of migratory birds depends on a clear understanding of how environmental factors affect key demographic rates (e.g., survival and reproduction). This informational need is especially pressing in the context of climate change. Climate change is expected to affect migratory bird habitat and populations in multiple ways, and a mechanistic understanding of how demographic rates are related to climate variables will help land and resource managers to better anticipate and manage these changes. The Institute for Bird Populations...
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Salmonids, a group of coldwater adapted fishes of enormous ecological and socio-economic value, historically inhabited a variety of freshwater habitats throughout the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Over the past century, however, populations have dramatically declined due to habitat loss, overharvest, and invasive species. Consequently, many populations are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Complicating these stressors is global warming and associated climate change. Overall, aquatic ecosystems across the PNW are predicted to experience increasingly earlier snowmelt in the spring, reduced late spring and summer flows, increased winter flooding, warmer and drier summers, increased...
map background search result map search result map Predicting Climate Change Impacts on River Ecosystems and Salmonids across the Pacific Northwest Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Vulnerability of Culturally Significant Plants on the Olympic Peninsula Understanding Future Fire Frequency and Impacts on Species Distribution in the South Central U.S. How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? The Past as a Prelude to the Future: Assessing Climate Effects on Native Trout in the U.S. Spatial Conservation Priorities for Riverine and Riparian Systems in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Global Assessment of River Fish Production and Potential Global Change Implications Assessing the Impact of Future Climate on Hawai‘i’s Aquatic Ecosystems Understanding the Relationship Between Urban Trees, Stormwater Runoff, and Cold-Water Streams in a Changing Climate Climate Change Impacts to Migratory Birds: Development of a Climate-informed Integrated Population Model Climate-Driven Shifts in Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Assessing Future Impacts to Critical Waterfowl Habitats Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Supporting Local Agricultural Planning and Adaptation in Alaska Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems Understanding the Relationship Between Urban Trees, Stormwater Runoff, and Cold-Water Streams in a Changing Climate The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Vulnerability of Culturally Significant Plants on the Olympic Peninsula Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Assessing the Impact of Future Climate on Hawai‘i’s Aquatic Ecosystems Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems Spatial Conservation Priorities for Riverine and Riparian Systems in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change Understanding Future Fire Frequency and Impacts on Species Distribution in the South Central U.S. Predicting Climate Change Impacts on River Ecosystems and Salmonids across the Pacific Northwest How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Climate-Driven Shifts in Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Assessing Future Impacts to Critical Waterfowl Habitats Supporting Local Agricultural Planning and Adaptation in Alaska The Past as a Prelude to the Future: Assessing Climate Effects on Native Trout in the U.S. Climate Change Impacts to Migratory Birds: Development of a Climate-informed Integrated Population Model Global Assessment of River Fish Production and Potential Global Change Implications