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The South Central U.S. is one of the main agricultural regions in North America: annual agricultural production is valued at more than $44 billion dollars. However, as climate conditions change, the region is experiencing more frequent and severe droughts, with significant impacts on agriculture and broader consequences for land management. For example, in 2011 drought caused an estimated $7.6 billion in agricultural losses in Texas and an additional $1.6 billion in Oklahoma. Although there are many drought monitoring tools available, most of these tools were developed without input from the stakeholders, such as farmers and ranchers, who are intended to use them. The goal of this project was to assess the information...
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The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities has long been recognized in the United States, especially in high risk areas such as the South Central region. There is ample literature on the effects of long-term climate change and short-term climate variability on the occurrence of droughts. However, it is unclear whether this information meets the needs of relevant stakeholders and actually contributes to reducing the vulnerability or increasing the resilience of communities to droughts. For example, are the methods used to characterize the severity of drought – known as drought indices – effective tools for predicting the actual damage felt by communities? As droughts...
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Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response...
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Water is a key ecosystem service that provides life to vegetation, animals, and human communities. The distribution and flow of water on a landscape influences many ecological functions, such as the distribution and health of vegetation and soil development and function. However, the future of many important water resources remains uncertain. Reduced snowfall and snowpack, earlier spring runoff, increased winter streamflow and flooding, and decreased summer streamflow have all been identified as potential impacts to water resources due to climate change. These factors all influence the water balance in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest (PCTR). Ensuring healthy flow and availability of water resources is...
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Permafrost is a layer of perennially frozen soil that primarily exists in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world. While a shallow near-surface soil layer (called active layer) thaws during the summer and re-freezes in the winter, the underlying permafrost remains perennially frozen, often underlying buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. As warmer temperatures become more common, thawing of permafrost could have major consequences for Alaska. Where thawing has already occurred, dramatic changes in ecosystems and existing infrastructure are evident. For example, thawing permafrost along the ocean shore and riverbanks in Northern Alaska is causing substantial coastal erosion and is impacting...
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There is a growing realization that current warming trends may be associated with increases in the size, frequency, and severity of forest fires in the West. While rising temperatures can create drought conditions that favor severe fires, it is also possible that drought limits the ability of trees to survive a fire. During a drought, there is less water available for trees and more outbreaks of harmful insects and pathogens can occur, both of which can weaken trees. Tree mortality is one means of measuring the severity of a fire, and evidence shows that trees exposed to drought conditions for periods of 5-10 years are already more sensitive to the effects of fire – suggesting that drought could indeed increase...
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The need to improve fire weather predictions for the southern Great Plains has grown in recent years, following a number of extreme fire events. While on-the-ground conditions that promote fire development in the region are still not well understood, research suggests that fire-friendly conditions are determined by more than just precipitation amounts or wind speeds. They are also influenced by soil characteristics such as moisture content, temperature, and human use. Therefore, fire weather forecast predictions could be improved by developing a better understanding of the relationship between soil characteristics and fire occurrence. With a hotter and drier future unfolding in the southern Great Plains, the time...
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Winter conditions have changed substantially in the Great Lakes region over the last 50 years, with the region experiencing rising temperatures, declining lake ice cover, and increased lake-effect snow. These changes have direct implications for economically important wildlife, such as deer and waterfowl. Deer hunting alone contributes $482 million annually to Wisconsin’s economy. The goal of this project was to identify how winter severity, snowpack, and lake ice could change through the mid- and late-21st century, and how species such as the white-tailed deer and mallard duck will respond. Because currently available climate data is at too coarse a scale to provide information on future conditions for the Great...
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Recent extreme floods on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers have motivated decision-makers and resource managers to expaned floodplain conservation lands. Within Missouri, there are more than 85,000 acres of public conservation lands in large-river floodplains. Floodplain lands are highly dynamic and challenging to manage, particularly climatic conditions change. These lands have the potential to provide valuable ecosystem services, like wildlife habitat, nutrient processing, carbon sequestration, and flood-water storage, that produce economic values in terms of recreational spending, improved water quality, and decreased flood hazards. However, floodplain managers may need tools to help them understand changing...
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The majority of the West Coast’s most extreme storms have been linked to atmospheric rivers, a meteorological phenomenon in which large amounts of moisture are carried in narrow bands from over the Pacific Ocean to western North America. While weak atmospheric rivers are critical providers of winter rain and snow, stronger events can cause extreme flooding, mudslides, and avalanches – leading to potentially catastrophic damage to life and property. Extreme winter storms, including those linked to atmospheric rivers, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. The goal of this project is to identify how these extreme events impact ecosystems and communities across the Southwest....
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Moose and caribou are two very important animals to both subsistence and sport hunting economies in Alaska. Their survival and reproduction is dependent on sufficient winter habitat and food sources, which may be threatened by climate change. During the winter, caribou eat lichens (organisms made up of algae and fungus) that grow on the snow-covered ground. Lichens will likely have a complex response to climate change, affected in different ways by factors like changing precipitation, wildfire, and competition with plants. For example, as temperatures warm, there will likely be less snow cover, exposing more of the lichen to caribou. Simultaneously, increased fire frequency could reduce lichen availability. Moose,...
    map background search result map search result map Studying the Effects of Climate Change on Moose and Caribou Habitat in Alaska Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Projecting the Future Distribution and Flow of Water in Alaskan Coastal Forest Watersheds Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South Central U.S. Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projecting the Future Distribution and Flow of Water in Alaskan Coastal Forest Watersheds Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South Central U.S. How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.? Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Studying the Effects of Climate Change on Moose and Caribou Habitat in Alaska Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey