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Wildfires are one of the greatest threats to human infrastructure and the ecosystem services humans value in the western US, but are also necessary in fire-adapted ecosystems. Wildfire activity is widely projected to increase in response to climate change in the Northwest, but we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of what this increase will look like or what its impacts will be on a variety of ecological and hydrologic systems. This project addressed one critical part of those impacts: the islands of unburned vegetation within wildfires. Unburned islands occur naturally as wildfires burn across landscapes, and are important habitat refuges for species -- places where plants and animals survive the fire...
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Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate.Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
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In the Northern Rockies, the annual area burned by wildfires has risen sharply in recent decades and is expected to continue growing. As a result, burned forests increasingly comprise a significant portion of the land base. However, burned areas represent a difficult paradox for land managers, especially in the context of other climate-linked disturbances (e.g., droughts, bark beetle outbreaks) that are also on the rise and may compound initial fire-induced stressors. While, burned areas have experienced major recent changes that may decrease their resilience to subsequent, compounding stressors, fire-induced changes can also lead to longer-term increases in resilience. The evolving landscape conditions triggered...
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
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The goal of this project was to examine how temperature and precipitation could change by the mid 21st century over the greater Los Angeles region. Major findings for temperature are: (1) large variability in the magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model projections over LA, but all predict warming; (2) warming is smaller over the ocean and coastal zone, but larger in the mountain areas and inland; (3) ensemble mean warming in all parts of the domain is significantly outside the range of historical variability, meaning the change will be detectable. Major findings for precipitation are: (1) large variability in both sign and magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model precipitation projections...
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Phenology, or the timing of the annual cycles of plants and animals, is extremely sensitive to changes in climate. We know that plants and animals may adjust the timing of certain phenological events, such as tree flowering or migration, based on changes in weather. However, it’s important that we also understand how the timing of phenological events is changing over longer time frames, as climate conditions change. While some species appear to be adjusting to the increase in unseasonal temperatures, drought, and extreme storms that have come with climate change, not all species are responding at the same speed or in the same ways. This can disrupt the manner in which species interact and the way that ecosystems...
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One of the most visible signs of climate change is less mountain snow. In the Western U.S., deep snow has historically been a cornerstone of life for many plants and animals. For example, snow can provide denning shelter for certain species like the wolverine, and snowmelt provides dependable water to mountain streams that are home to fish like the bull trout. Yet snow losses driven by warming temperatures are already causing land and water managers to rethink whether certain species can thrive in the future. A recently completed study by this research team helped the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service investigate whether wolverines will have enough snow to survive in two areas of the Rocky Mountains. In June 2020,...
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Snow is extremely important to a wide range of natural processes in Alaska. Snow cover helps regulate the earth’s temperature and stores water on the landscape. As it melts, snow hydrates the soil and replenishes the freshwater supplies of streams and lakes, providing water for vegetation, wildlife, and human activities such as agriculture and electricity generation. Understanding present and future snow conditions under climate change is critical for managing Alaska’s natural resources, yet many scientists, land managers, and policymakers lack this information at useful scales. Hence, the goal of this project was to produce an advanced snow modeling system for part of the Arctic that predicts a variety of factors...
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In the North Central U.S., the rate and extent of changing climate conditions has been increasing in recent decades. These changes include shifting precipitation patterns, warming temperatures, and more frequent extreme events, such as droughts and floods. As these changes occur, managers face different challenges and have different needs, depending on the resources they manage. For example, water managers are focused on responding to changes in water availability, while wildlife managers may be more concerned with changing habitat conditions – whether it be for migratory waterfowl, coldwater fish, or large mammals. In the face of these changes, managers are seeking effective strategies for managing resources....
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Trout are one of the most culturally, economically, and ecologically important groups of freshwater fishes in the Rocky Mountain region. However, human impacts and climate change are significantly altering freshwater ecosystems that support native trout species. Despite their broad importance, many of the region’s trout populations are threatened and some require immediate conservation efforts to reverse their decline. Although work is being done to understand and mitigate these changes, the ability to accurately assess vulnerability is currently limited due to a lack of data-driven approaches that incorporate uncertainty and adaptive capacity at scales relevant to effective management. USGS researchers will...
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Under shifting temperatures and precipitation patterns, Midwestern states are increasingly at risk from non-native invasive plants that are changing the composition, structure, and function of native forests. Non-native invasive plants impact the resilience and sustainability of forest communities by outcompeting native tree seedlings and diverse flowering plants, and by altering ecologically important patterns of natural processes like fire, wind, drought, and flooding. Land managers facing this threat are having to not only consider current non-native invasive plants within their landscapes but also future impacts with the expansion of these plants northward and westward under a changing climate, especially as...
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Natural & cultural resource managers are facing a slew of new challenges for managing public lands stemming from climate change and human-driven stressors like invasive species, fragmentation, and new resource uses. In some cases, the very landscapes and species they are managing are changing in significant ways, transforming from one set of conditions to another. As a result, previously successful management strategies may become less effective, or in some cases ineffective. New and transforming conditions leave managers in a bind on how to respond to transforming public lands and natural resources. On the most basic level managers have three choices of how to respond: resist change, accept change, or direct change...
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The Colorado River is a crucial water source for millions of people in the Southwest. Warming temperatures, clearly documented in climate records for the Colorado River basin, are having an impact on the amount of annual streamflow yielded from rain and snow. Recent work has revealed that warming temperatures have played an increasingly important role over the past decades, both exacerbating droughts and dampening the effects of wet winters on high stream flows. Understanding and anticipating how warming temperatures will influence future water supply in the Colorado River basin is increasingly important for resource management, particularly in light of recent drought conditions. The overarching goals of this...
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Changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change (and associated droughts, wildfires, extreme storms etc.) threaten important water sources, forests, wildlife habitat, and ecosystems across the Southwest and throughout the entire U.S. These threats cross political and man-made boundaries and therefore need to be addressed at larger landscape-level and regional scales. “Landscape conservation design” is one method that can be used by land and resource managers to support large scale conservation and ensure that small scale and local actions contribute to a landscape level vision. The Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) is working to develop a shared vision for conservation action in the...
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Areas along the Arctic coast are changing the fastest among all of Earth’s habitats due to climate change. The Arctic coast is a fragile ecosystem that provides habitat for migratory birds, endangered species, and species critical for local subsistence living. In this area, permafrost is thawing rapidly, changing how much and when water reaches rivers, ponds, lakes, wetlands and groundwater. In addition, there is also a growing interest in oil and gas resource exploration. With ongoing permafrost thaw, future warming, and interests in oil and gas extraction in the coastal plain (also known as the 1002 area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it is urgent to improve the understanding of this area and its vulnerability...
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There is a growing movement in the Pacific to decarbonize sea transportation. The transition to sustainable sea transport is projected to reduce socioeconomic vulnerability to external rises in oil prices while lowering carbon emissions in a period of intensifying climate change. With potential periodic global breakdowns in transport of fuel due to potential hazards such as global pandemics or political instability, the development of sustainable shipping is increasingly relevant. Canoe organizations in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia are working with the Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport to restore traditional systems of voyaging as indigenous means of climate...
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Ensuring the long-term sustainability of water resources requires careful stewardship of water for societal uses (i.e. municipal, agricultural, and industrial sectors) and also for the many other benefits that aquatic ecosystems provide to humans. In particular, reservoir fisheries and river ecosystems provide a range of economic, cultural, and recreational benefits. Maximizing the benefits that we receive from water will entail balancing societal uses, reservoir storage, and river flows. Climate change is expected to complicate the challenge of finding a balance among these three dimensions of water sustainability. To navigate these challenges, stakeholders need frameworks for simultaneously predicting the...
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Overview This project examines the ecological impacts of several introduced and expanding forest insects and diseases on forest habitats across the northeastern US and upper Lake States region. To address these novel threats, this work applies large-scale, co-developed experimental studies documenting impacts of ash mortality from emerald ash borer on lowland black ash communities in the Lake States and northern hardwood forests in New England; regional assessments of the impacts of the climate change-mediated expansion of southern pine beetle into northeastern pine barren communities; and ecological characterizations of areas experiencing suppression efforts to reduce the spread of the introduced Asian long-horned...
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Invasive species and climate change represent two major global change threats to ecosystems across the United States and around the world. Invasives can have significant and often irreversible impacts, including the loss of native species or the spread of diseases. Climate change brings other threats to ecosystems, and can also exacerbate and facilitate the spread of invasives throughout natural areas. This project is focused on piloting a collaboration between scientists and natural resource managers in the Northwestern U.S. focused on the nexus of climate change and invasive species. The project team members are working in collaboration with Region 1 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a...
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Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and tools in order to understand and predict changes to lakes and their biota. A previous Northeast CSC-funded project modeled lake temperatures to help state agencies in the Midwest understand trends in walleye and largemouth bass populations and predict lake-specific fish populations under future climate scenarios. These...
map background search result map search result map 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Modeling and Predicting Future Changes in Snowfall and Snow Cover in Alaska Disappearing Refugia: Identifying Trends and Resilience in Unburned Islands under Climate Change Assessing Southwest Resources, Future Climate Scenarios, and Possible Adaptation Actions to Support Conservation Planning Identifying Resilient Headwater Streams to Mitigate Impacts of Future Drought in the Northwest Anticipating Future Impacts of Temperature on Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin The Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology: A Synthesis and Path Forward for Adaptive Management in the Pacific Northwest Foundational Science Area: Maximizing Stakeholder Engagement to Support Climate Adaptation in the North Central U.S. “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region: Temperature and Precipitation Assessing the Vulnerability of Native Trout in the Northern Rockies: Linking Science and Management for Climate Adaptation Modeling the Interaction of Forest Management and Climate Change on the Spread and Impact of Non-Native Invasive Plants Tracking Forest and Hydrological Resilience to Compound Stressors in Burned Forests Under a Changing Climate Incorporation of Climate Change Science Into Invasive Species Management Estimating Future High-Mountain Snowpack to Inform Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Status Assessments, Recovery Plans, and Monitoring Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making Using Oral Histories of Marshallese and Yapese Voyagers to Support the Development of Community Engagement for Sustainable Sea Transport Cross-Park RAD Project (CPRP): A Case Study in Four National Parks Investigating How Institutional Context and Emotions Shape Manager Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Change in Transforming Ecosystems Enhancing a Spatial Planning Tool to Inform Management of Reservoir Fisheries, Stream Flows, and Societal Water Needs in the Red River Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region: Temperature and Precipitation Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making Anticipating Future Impacts of Temperature on Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Modeling the Interaction of Forest Management and Climate Change on the Spread and Impact of Non-Native Invasive Plants Tracking Forest and Hydrological Resilience to Compound Stressors in Burned Forests Under a Changing Climate The Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology: A Synthesis and Path Forward for Adaptive Management in the Pacific Northwest Disappearing Refugia: Identifying Trends and Resilience in Unburned Islands under Climate Change Incorporation of Climate Change Science Into Invasive Species Management Identifying Resilient Headwater Streams to Mitigate Impacts of Future Drought in the Northwest Assessing the Vulnerability of Native Trout in the Northern Rockies: Linking Science and Management for Climate Adaptation “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes Modeling and Predicting Future Changes in Snowfall and Snow Cover in Alaska Using Oral Histories of Marshallese and Yapese Voyagers to Support the Development of Community Engagement for Sustainable Sea Transport Enhancing a Spatial Planning Tool to Inform Management of Reservoir Fisheries, Stream Flows, and Societal Water Needs in the Red River Estimating Future High-Mountain Snowpack to Inform Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Status Assessments, Recovery Plans, and Monitoring Foundational Science Area: Maximizing Stakeholder Engagement to Support Climate Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Assessing Southwest Resources, Future Climate Scenarios, and Possible Adaptation Actions to Support Conservation Planning Cross-Park RAD Project (CPRP): A Case Study in Four National Parks Investigating How Institutional Context and Emotions Shape Manager Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Change in Transforming Ecosystems 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa