Habitat suitability models for understory shrubs of western North America

Publication Date

2022-12-01

Start Date

1981

End Date

2100

Prevey, J.S., Parker, L.E., Brodie, L.C., and Harrington, C.A., 2022, Habitat suitability models for understory shrubs of western North America: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9Z2TVGA.

Type: Related Primary Publication Type: Related Data Release

Climate change is altering the suitable habitat and phenology of plant species around the world, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those plant species as food sources. Here, we modelled how the range of several culturally-important, food-producing shrub species may change as the climate changes. We utilized citizen scientist observations, long-term plot data, and gridded climate data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niche of five species: beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), salal (Gaultheria shallon), black huckleberry, (Vaccinium membranaceum), and evergreen huckleberry (Vaccinium ovatum). We then used multi-model future climate projections for 2 time periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to project changes in habitat suitability for four species: beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), salal (Gaultheria shallon), and black huckleberry, (Vaccinium membranaceum).

• Fort Collins Science Center (FORT)
• USGS Data Release Products